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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
@SimonWDC
Sep 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Creating a narrative that he's winning not losing is now an existential issue for Trump and his allies:
- that is he winning and strong and that we are losing and weak is his entire campaign. He is nothing w/o it
- he needs data showing him winning to contest the election 1/
Investing in creating a false narrative that Rs are doing better than polls/data suggest is what they did in 2022, and we should expect them to do it again this time.

Dems should not be doing anything to help them red wave this election too. 2/

In a new video about the 2024 election I talk about how the national/state polling is good for us now and that if put our heads down and do the work we can have the election we all want to have - but only if we do the work! Enjoy! 3/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/kamala-won-p…
Yes, Trump overperformed public polls in 2020. But Rs and Trump have underperforming public polls since Dobbs.

We should be talking about both misses and why we don’t know which way 2024 will go. Though it’s my view 2024 will more like 2022 than 2020. Dobbs broke the GOP. 4/
Finally, Dem 2024 campaign staff need to keep reminding themselves that our data people mostly bought into the red wave in 2022 & missed our eventual overperformance. Some very publicly talked down our chances and advanced the demobilizing red wave narrative. Be cautious of them.

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Sep 13
Doing a short thread for our Dem family about best ways to respond to positive data like this below.
1) Don't dismiss, diminish, but, however the data. It is good data. Let it be good. Share it. Delight in it. 1/
2) Comments that "natl polls don't matter only state polls do" is some of the absolutely stupidest things people write on Twitter. Of course national polls matter. We have elections in all 50 states, and the state polls often move with the national data. Both matter. 2/
3/Dems need to let go of 2016 and stop talking about it. It's 2024 not 2016, and no election is like any other.

And when when you see positive data like this and immediately evoke something that's bad and scary you are doing MAGA's work for them. Let 2024 be 2024 please.
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 8
A reminded Trump/MAGA have been lying about the 2020 election for almost 4 years now; they lied about a red wave coming in 2022; and they lie about this election and their opponents every single day.

It's an unending tornado of bullshit - media cannot play stenographer here.
The Trump campaign is lying about Walz’s 24 years of military service. And the lies are crude, easily debunked, puerile, desperate and disgraceful.
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jun 19
Biden gains in new polling:
- Fox News 3 pt Biden gain (8 pts since March)
- Echelon 4 pt Biden gain
- CBS/YouGov 3 pt Biden gain
- Morning Consult 2 pt Biden gain
- Yahoo/YouGov 2 pt Biden gain
- NYT 2 pt Biden gain
Election appears to be changing now 1/
foxnews.com/official-polls…
The Politico/Ipsos poll this week found a significant potential weakening of Trump with independents and Republicans post-felony verdict. 2/ Image
My basic take on the election:
- Joe Biden is a good POTUS. The country is better off. We have a 💪case to make
- The Dem Party is strong and winning elections all over the country
- They have Trump - the ugliest political thing we've ever seen
More 👇3/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/making-june-…
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jun 8
In May 272,000 jobs were created in US, far exceeding expectations. Wage growth was robust. My job tracker now comes in at:

33.8m jobs - 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
15.6m jobs - 3+ yrs Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump

Biden 8x jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents *combined* 1/ Image
The job creation rate has been 40x greater per month under Biden than under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Last month's 272,000 jobs is over 2 years of GOP growth in a single month. 2/ Image
Since 1989 and a new age of globalization began, 51m jobs have been created in America. 49m of those have been created under Dem Presidents - essentially all of them. Only 1 US political party been good at this capitalism thing - the Democrats. 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
May 30
Very much enjoyed this smart @RonBrownstein @CNN deep dive into data suggesting that Biden is doing better with voters more likely to vote in 2024, and Trump is doing a bit better with a wider electorate that includes many disinterested voters. 1/

cnn.com/2024/05/29/pol…
To me the biggest question is what happens with those disinterested voters who go through the process of becoming a voter. Will they come to vote more like those who are paying closer attention and become more Dem and help Biden win? I think this is the likely scenario. 2/
In election after election since Dobbs when voters have been given the choice between pragmatic Ds and extremist MAGAs voters have chosen Dems.

Our well-funded and muscular campaigns have put this choice to voters repeatedly, and we keep winning 👇3/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/since-dobbs-…
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
May 26
In 2022 Rs worked hard to craft the false "red wave" narrative about the election.

They're doing it again this year - lies about size of crowds, fundraising; claiming polling lead when there isn't one; showy events in D states, voting groups. 1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/voting-on-da…
This bravado is covering for very weak GOP, who've been losing elections across US, struggling to raise hard dollars, underperforming public polls in primaries, dozens of party leaders indicted, natl campaign a shambles, more "bad candidate" problems 2/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/more-evidenc…
While Rs are weak, Ds are strong: winning elections across US since Dobbs, meaningful hard dollar/organizational advantages, encouraging Senate/House polling, D Govs in 5 of 7 battleground states, Biden has been good President/country is better off 👇 3/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/id-much-rath…
Read 7 tweets

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