Thread by @Mylovanov

Russia is not a Ukraine's problem—it's the EU's

Eventually, after the war in Ukraine is over, won or lost, Russia will focus on another target: Georgia, the Baltic states, or even the Nordic countries

An aggressive Russia will remain. And what will Europe do?

1/

This is an unpopular, often overlooked view.

The West and Ukraine have a conflict of objectives. Many people think that Ukraine wants to escalate to defend, while it’s not the West’s war and the West should try to stay away from it. But it is not that 2/

Ukraine wants Russia to move on. The West wants Russia to stop being aggressive.

The point here is that Ukraine has proven to everyone and first of all Russia that it is a very costly prize, not worth the effort. Indeed, whatever the territory taken, it is burned to the ground/

By contrast, the EU has shown it can be bullied. Russia can send drones through NATO airspace and there will be no response. Russia can run sabotage and assassination operations in Europe and there will be no response. Russia can do cyber attacks and there will be no response 4/

The NATO countries and the EU are not ready to be fast and furious in their reaction to Russian bullying. They are not ready to innovate at the speed Russia does. So, Putin will continue to test them, by action 5/

At this point, Russia might very well believe that some of the NATO countries might be an easier target than Ukraine. If this is true, Europe is in trouble 6/

My take is that once the war is over, Russia will regroup and start harassing other countries, not Ukraine. And that’s the real conflict of interest between the West and Ukraine.

So, what NATO and the EU should do is to prepare for that time. Now. 7X