For the second day in a row, there is a lot of good news. Although, any news related to the war can hardly be considered "good". The second prisoner exchange took place. Another 103 people returned to Ukraine. Among those released are defenders of the 36th Marine Brigade,
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the National Guard, in particular the 12th Special Purpose Brigade "Azov", border guards, representatives of the special forces unit "Kraken". There are also representatives of the National Police and territorial defense, the State Emergency Service, units of the Armed
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Forces of Ukraine. Most of those released were held in Russian captivity from the first days of the war. Details of the exchange are reported by Dmytro Karpenko. The day before, 49 defenders returned from captivity. These are soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the
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National Guard, the National Police, the State Border Service, as well as civilians. In particular, Leniye Umerova - a girl whom the Russians took hostage when she came to take care of her sick father. They also managed to free some more defenders of "Azovstal".
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Hero of Ukraine, military medic Viktor Ivchuk is also at home. The increased prisoner exchanges, which Russia has not conducted for almost a year in 2023, are good for two reasons. Firstly, and this is the main thing, the defenders of Ukraine and other people are returning
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home. Secondly, this indicates a shortage of manpower in Russia, which, after a long pause, has resumed exchanges and is conducting them more and more often. Unlike the Ukrainians, who require long months of rehabilitation after Russian captivity, Russian prisoners return
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home cured and in good shape. The usual path of Russian soldiers after release goes through the FSB office, where they tell on camera under threats how they were tortured in Ukrainian captivity, then most often to the hospital for several weeks, and then back to the front.
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Now this path is increasingly shorter and bypasses the hospital stage. Many Z-channels in Telegram also talk about the developing crisis with manpower in the army. There was a loud story where pilots of long-range reconnaissance drones were sent into a meat assault.
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Before the assault, they recorded a farewell video where they talked about the real state of affairs, about the commander protecting drug trafficking, taking valuable equipment and money from the military, and constantly lying in denunciations to the leadership. Their entire
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UAV detachment was specially sent to the assault so that it would be destroyed. They transmitted truthful information about the situation at the front to the top, bypassing the commander. And this is happening along the entire front line. This does not mean that things are
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getting easier for Ukraine. Things are still very difficult in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukraine also suffers losses every day. Russia continues to attack. It is just a vicious circle for Russia. It does not have enough reserves to break through and take a large city in the
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Pokrovsk direction or liberate the Kursk region, but it still has enough reserves to make constant attacks in small groups, trying to identify weak points and wait for reinforcements in order to concentrate the attack there. This leads to losses of these insufficient
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forces and requires even more reserves. The fact is that those people who make decisions in Russia at the top of the chain have no real idea of the actual number of their troops. The lies in the reports start from the very bottom. The commander, like the one who sent the
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UAV pilots to die, reports to the top that the city has been taken. He does not have the resources to actually take it, but he will try to do so by constantly sending small groups to storm, in an attempt to capture what he has already reported.
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Things are also not going well for Russia in the Kursk region. Ukraine has broken through the border in another place in the Glushkovsky district and is moving into the rear of Russia's counterattacking forces. Russian conscripts is in danger of being surrounded.
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It is clear that Ukraine's operation was well prepared and is unlikely to be driven out of the Kursk region in the near future.
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A wave of property confiscations that swept across the regions and affected officials, security officers, and judges has brought the state an amount comparable to the annual budget of a small region. In total, over the past 5-7 years, property worth 100 billion rubles has been
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seized in corruption cases, Accounts Chamber auditor Andrei Baturkin reported in the State Duma. The confiscations have reached such a scale that, according to Baturkin, a “road map” is now required to coordinate the relevant agencies that will have to deal with seized companies,
houses, land plots, and collections of luxury cars and watches. It is necessary to “establish communication between the power bloc and Rosimushchestvo so that there is more feedback regarding what property is to be transferred into the ownership of the Russian Federation,”
Bloomberg reported, citing sources, that Greece and Malta have become the main obstacles to an EU proposal to replace the price cap on Russian oil with a ban on services necessary for transporting fuel. According to the agency’s interlocutors, the two southern European
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countries raised concerns about this step at a meeting of EU ambassadors on Monday, where the latest sanctions package against Russia was presented. They warned that such a shift could affect Europe’s shipping industry and energy prices. Both countries also requested
clarifications regarding proposals to impose sanctions on foreign ports handling Russian oil and to strengthen oversight of ship sellers in order to reduce the number of vessels entering Moscow’s fleet. A representative of the Greek government declined to comment.
The most unpleasant forecasts regarding the Russian economy are beginning to materialize. What analysts cautiously spoke about a year ago is now being discussed openly even by the most pro-government Russian economists: the safety margin is rapidly shrinking. While Putin talks
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about “stability” and “growth,” the reality looks far more prosaic: a country that unleashed a war of aggression against Ukraine is methodically burning through its own financial system. According to estimates by Germany’s BND intelligence service, Russia’s real military spending
reaches around 10% of GDP and nearly half of the federal budget. In fact, actual expenditures are 66% higher than officially declared, due to hidden budget lines, Defense Ministry construction projects, military IT infrastructure, and social payments to servicemen. In simple
According to BND estimates, last year Russia’s military spending may have amounted to almost half of the state budget and around 10% of the country’s GDP. According to the German intelligence service, Russia is spending significantly more on the war and its armed forces
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than it has declared in recent years. Since the start of the war against Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s defense budget has increased sharply every year. In addition, Russia’s interpretation of “defense spending” differs significantly from the NATO definition, German
intelligence officials note. A comprehensive analysis of budget data conducted by BND shows that Russia’s defense budget in recent years was 66% higher than officially reported. Unaccounted expenditures include, for example, construction projects of the Ministry of Defense,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained why he sharply criticized Europe at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He made these remarks during a meeting with journalists in Kyiv, according to a correspondent from European Pravda. Zelensky said he had grounds for critical
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statements toward Europe after a lack of funding led to a shortage of air defense missiles, allowing Russia to strike Kyiv’s energy infrastructure. Zelensky did not deny that his speech may have sounded overly harsh from European capitals and explained this by saying that
Ukraine and the rest of Europe live in different information spaces. He also acknowledged that the differences are not only informational but also emotional in how events are perceived. The president explained that his Davos speech was preceded by heavy strikes on energy
Putin is losing the game he himself started. His bet was placed on a return to the world of the 19th and early 20th centuries - a world of empires and spheres of influence, where Europe, America, Africa, and Asia are divided among several “superpowers.” In Putin’s vision of
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the world, there were supposed to be three such powers: the United States, Russia, and China. However, the real transformation of the global order is unfolding in a completely different way. The key failure is Ukraine. At the end of the fourth year of war, Russia has still
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been unable to subjugate it. The army is visibly degrading, human and technological resources are being exhausted, the economy is held together by military spending and gray schemes, and the state increasingly resembles an overextended empire losing its ability to govern
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