Ukrainian forces continued to advance in Glushkovsky Raion and reportedly continued to advance north of Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast on September 14.
Russian forces continued counterattacking throughout the salient on September 14 and recently regained territory SE of Korenevo and SE of Sudzha.
2/ Geolocated footage published on September 13 shows Ukrainian forces operating in southern Veseloye (southwest of Glushkovo), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces seized the settlement.
3/ Russian milbloggers also claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced west of Medvezhye (SW of Glushkovo) and in fields south of Tetkino (roughly 25km southwest of Glushkovo) along the border with Sumy Oblast.
4/ Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued assaults near Medvezhye, Veseloye, Obukhovka (immediately south of Veseloye), and Novy Put (south of Veseloye) on September 13 and 14.
5/ Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to advance north of Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast on September 14. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces seized Cherkasskoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha).
6/ Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacks southwest of Korenevo near Apanasovka; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Obukhovka; east of Korenevo near Maryevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka on September 13 and 14.
7/ Geolocated footage published on September 13 indicates that Russian forces entered western Lyubimovka (SE of Korenevo) during a company-sized mechanized assault. Footage from September 14 shows Russian naval infantry operating in central Borki (southeast of Sudzha).
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2/ Russian efforts to increase the size of the armed forces are part of a longer-term Russian objective that extends beyond the war in Ukraine and aims to increase the size and overall capacity of the Russian military via long-term, large-scale force reforms.
3/ ISW has reported at length on these reforms, which have been ongoing since early 2023 and include the re-establishment of the Moscow & Leningrad military districts and the formation of new army corps, combined arms armies, and mechanized and airborne divisions.
It remains unclear what Putin may do between now and 2026 or how effective Putin’s efforts to offset the impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine, including via foreign partners like Iran, North Korea, and the People's Republic of China (PRC), will be. 🧵(1/6)⬇️
2/ ISW continues to assess that Putin remains averse to announcing another partial mobilization out of fear of domestic discontent and will likely continue to instruct the Ministry of Defense (MoD) to pursue ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts until such efforts begin to fall far short of operational requirements in Ukraine.
3/ Putin maintains the option to call another round of mobilization - as he did in Fall 2022 - despite his desire to avoid having to do so. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is also unwilling to accept reducing the intensity of Russian forces’ combat operations because the Kremlin sees maintaining the theater-wide initiative as a strategic imperative.
NEW: Ukrainian officials and sources indicated that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has prompted the Russian authorities to increase the size of the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast by upwards of a factor of three. 🧵(1/4)
2/ The reported growth in the size of the Russian grouping in Kursk Oblast reflects how operational pressures caused by the incursion have forced the Russian military command to redeploy elements from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast...
3/ ...and commit newly generated forces from within Russia to the area instead of the frontline in Ukraine. A Russian counteroffensive operation to retake territory seized by Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast...
NEW: The IDF 162nd Division killed over 100 Hamas fighters and located Hamas infrastructure in Tel al Sultan over the past week. 🧵(1/4)
2/ Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in two locations across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 13.
3/ Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least 15 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 13.
NEW: The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast has reportedly spoiled planned Russian offensive operations along the international border area that likely aimed to expand the area of active combat operations across a broader front in northeastern Ukraine. 🧵(1/6)
2/ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on September 13 that the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast stopped Russian plans to create several buffer zones along the Ukrainian border "from the east to the north," including in Sumy Oblast.
3/ Zelensky's statement suggests that Russian forces planned to start new offensive operations aimed at penetrating at least 25 kilometers deep into Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts and activating along a much wider front between at least Sumy and Kharkiv cities.
NEW: Russian forces continued counterattacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 12 but made only marginal gains, likely due to continued Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area. 🧵(1/5)
2/ Geolocated footage published on September 12 indicates that Russian forces made marginal advances west of Vishnevka (southwest of Korenevo) and in northern Krasnooktyabrskoye (southwest of Korenevo).
3/ The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces have recaptured 10 settlements south and SW of Korenevo since starting counterattacks on the night of September 10 to 11, including Apanasovka, Byakhovo, Vishnevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoye, Gordeevka, Krasnooktyabrskoye, Obukhovka, Snagost, and 10-y Oktyabr.