Thread by @revishvilig

Interesting comments by Kyrylo Budanov:

- Russia aims to conclude the war by the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026, seeking to achieve a victory. Russia will face significant economic challenges starting in the summer of 2025. 1/14⬇️

Russia will need to conduct another round of mobilization. This, in turn, could undermine the country's social and political stability. 2/14

if Russia does not secure victory, it will lose its long-term ambition of being perceived as a superpower over the next 30 years - said Budanov, referencing Russian intelligence sources. 3/14

Russia expects "all their problems will begin in the summer of 2025," as financial, economic, and socio-political factors converge. Russia is currently managing the worsening economic situation, it is aware that the ongoing recession, already severe, continues to deepen. 4/14

But this is still far from the peak. They predict that by the summer of 2025, the negative economic impact will become starkly evident" 5/14

Russia is accelerating various processes in an effort to mitigate these effects and navigate the crisis, aiming to conclude the war on favorable terms. 6/14

Russia is increasingly facing the challenge of insufficient army recruitment. "By the summer of 2025, they will confront a critical dilemma either announce another mobilization or reduce the intensity of hostilities, both of which could prove decisive for their military strategy"

Despite official rhetoric, war fatigue is real in Russia, as the conflict has impacted a significant portion of the population.

Budanov acknowledged that some Russians are pleased with the aggressor’s gains, having captured more than 30% of Ukraine. 8/14

They are attracted by the high salaries in the Russian army. However, the number of volunteers is dwindling, prompting the Russian government to offer one-time payments of up to 48,000 USD upon signing a contract. 9/14

Ukraine’s efforts to bring hostilities deeper into Russian territory have also impacted the social and psychological state of the Russian population. "It changed their worldview," he noted. 10/14

"Previously, the Russian population lived under the belief that, no matter what, we are a very powerful country, the strongest in the world. But with the first explosions in Moscow and other parts of Russia, this myth was shattered." 11/14

Referring to obtained documents, Budanov explained that if Russia fails to achieve victory by the end of 2025, it risks losing its status as a global power. 12/14

"They understand this very clearly. This is a critical period for them," Budanov remarked. "That’s why they will do everything in their power to secure what they perceive as a victory. 13/14

Failing that, Russia risks being excluded from all global processes entirely. The best they could hope for in that scenario is regional leadership, and that is not acceptable to them." 14/14

source: interfax.com.ua/news/general/1…

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