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Clément Molin Profile picture
@clement_molin
Sep 15, 2024 • 18 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
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Sur le front de #Koursk, un nouveau bêchage ukrainien 🇺🇦 pour contrer la contre-offensive russe 🇷🇺 qui avance.

L'encerclement du district de Glushkovo a été levé par l'offensive russe, mais une nouvelle menace apparait au cœur de celui-ci.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17⬇️ Image
Contexte cartographique :

Est évoqué ici l'oblast russe de Koursk dont l'Ukraine contrôle ~1 000km2 depuis l'invasion surprise de celui-ci en août 2024. Image
J'ai déjà partagé plusieurs vidéos de l'assaut russe. Celui-ci est parti de Korenevo pour prendre Snagost par le nord et couper la présence ukrainienne entre la rivière Seym et la frontière.





Voici une vidéo de la même colonne au milieu des mais vu du côté russe. On reconnait les véhicules de la VDV russe.
Les images satellites du jour via Sentinel-2 montrent le passage de la colonne russe au milieu des champs de mais pour prendre Snagost par le nord.

Le village a été libéré après 2 jours de combats. Image
Je vous l'avait dit, l'armée russe devait absolument lever l'encerclement du district de Glushkovo. La carte représente l'assaut russe avec seulement la confirmation visuelle. Obukhovka et la zone au sud pourrait être libéré. Image
Les contre-attaques russes à Koursk ont commencé bien plus tôt, dès la mi-août à l'est de Korenevo avec la 810ème brigade d'infanterie de marines.

Mais l'attaque principale a débuté il y a quelques jours seulement.



En reprenant le terrain, l'armée russe a réussi à détruire une partie du matériel ukrainien abandonné lors des différents assauts.

Les pertes sont un sujet tabou en Ukraine, mais pour attaquer, il faut forcément perdre du matériel.





Voici le dernier bilan des pertes par @naalsio26 il y a 5 jours :

Les pertes principales des russes sont dans les camions et moyens du génie, côté ukrainien, ce sont les MRAP.
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En réponse, l'armée ukrainienne a ouvert un nouveau front directement au sud de Glushkovo, entrant via 3 points par la frontière.

Voici quelques vidéos côté russe et ukrainien.





Les images satellites du jour montrent deux chemin tracés au milieu des mines qui sont connus, et un troisième inconnu jusque là. Image
L'armée ukrainienne est entrée par 3 endroits dans le district de Glushkovo. De fait, celui-ci est de nouveau quasiment encerclé.

Le groupe de dronistes 🇺🇦"Khorne Group" était mécontent contre les journalistes occidentaux disant que l'opération avait échouée. Image
Images de cette 3ème progression bien plus à l'ouest. Les images sont disponibles sur Sentienl-2, ce n'est donc en rien de l'OPSEC puisque tout le monde à accès à Sentinel-2.
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Sur la partie est du front de Koursk, l'armée russe est entrée dans Borki après de lourds bombardements.

Je ne peux cependant pas le confirmer visuellement.

Voici donc une carte résumant la situation sur le front ouest de Koursk, avec une contre-attaque russe elle-même contre-attaquée par une attaque ukrainienne.

Tout va se jouer dans la capacité ukrainienne à atteindre une distance minimale de Glushkovo. Image
Le grand nombre de départs de feu autour de la frontière montre la violence des combats et des bombardements de ces dernières heures. Image
En résumé : un nouvel axe de progression ukrainien menace une contre-attaque russe qui a réussi à s'enfoncer en profondeur dans les lignes ukrainiennes. L'armée russe passe à l'attaque sur l'ensemble du front de Koursk avec une force importante.

Demain, je parlerai de Pokrovsk.
La vidéo du Tweet 4 n'a pas chargé. Voici le lien :

(au passage, la démocratie que j'avais invoqué hier avait demandé Pokrovsk, j'ai choisi finalement de faire Koursk face aux nombreuses infos ; à demain pour Pokrovsk ! )t.me/sudoplatov_off…

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More from @clement_molin

Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 3
Let's dive in Russian 🇷🇺 war propaganda machine

Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.

What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.

1/9 ⬇️ Image
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.

Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them. Image
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.

These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.
Read 9 tweets
Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 2
In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%

This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.

These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.

Here you can see the results of those : Image
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The use of these guided bombs is steadily increasing, reaching a record high this month.

The accuracy of the FABs, which ranged from 10% to 30% last year (with "accuracy" defined as hitting something, such as a hedgerow, a village, or a forest), now stands at between 40% and 90%.Image
Read 20 tweets
Clément Molin Profile picture
Jul 1
Russian 🇷🇺 offensive assessment for June 2026

In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.

My analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️Image
Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.

Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.

The battle for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing for over 8 months.

Russian forces have been infiltrating the city's eastern, southern, and western sectors for several months; in recent weeks, they have—for the first time—managed to seize control of several neighborhoods, particularly in the west, and secure certain access routes to the city center.

Concurrently, Russian forces have launched a major propaganda campaign, showing flags across nearly the entire city and releasing videos showing their infiltration into most areas of Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian forces maintain a presence throughout almost the entire city, although their hold on the southeastern and southwestern neighborhoods is increasingly threatened by the Russian advance into their rear. Fighting within the neighborhoods continues, and the Russian objective remains to seize control of the two roads supplying the city.

While the majority of Ukrainian assets—including drones and artillery—were evacuated in early June, the battle for the city (much like the earlier battle for Toretsk to the south) could drag on for weeks or even months until Russian forces achieve total control, enabling them to use the city as a hub for a northward push toward Drujkivka and Kramatorsk.

Overall, the battle for the city is lost, even though the Ukrainians still control more than a quarter of it—specifically the northeastern districts. It is important to understand that it is too early for Russian forces to use the city as a launch point for artillery or drone strikes; however, the initial drone units arriving in the coming weeks could intensify the threat to the northern supply routes leading to Drujkivka.Image
Read 13 tweets
Clément Molin Profile picture
Jun 30
In recent months, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to reinforce its fortifications across the country

6 months ago, Zaporizhzhia direction was lacking defensive preparation, it now has 5 defensive lines, which shows how fast Ukraine can adapt.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️ Image
Here in red are all the new fortifications built from january to jun 2026. Lines are stretching from Chernihiv to Odessa.

You can see priority was given to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Image
Near Zaporizhzhia, are still digging new lines, with currently 5 lines protecting the city from the east.

Red are lines dug in 2026, yellow in 2025 and white in 2024 (mostly obsolete). Image
Read 13 tweets
Clément Molin Profile picture
Jun 29
Since early May, Ukraine 🇺🇦 targeted nearly 800 Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles on key logistical roads.

This strike campaign continue to be scaling, with strikes on railway infrastructure, bridges and the isolation of Crimea.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
Here is the video of the ~784 trucks and vehicles hit by the Ukrainians (mainly videos from the drones, since we can't always tell the difference with ground footage).

Strikes target military trucks, fuel trucks, cargo trucks, cars, buses and trucks closer to the frontline.
In total, I counted 784 trucks and vehicles hit by Ukrainian drones since early May.

🔹The per day average since May is 13
🔹May average is 7 (214 trucks)
🔹June average is 19 (570 trucks)
🔸Last 10 days average is 29 (295)

Read 18 tweets
Clément Molin Profile picture
Jun 18
Ukraine 🇺🇦 has now targeted around 500 russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles during the last 48 days.

Mid-range strikes continue to expand across occupied territories, on roads, bridges and rear base. This continues to slow down russian offensive.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️
From tomorrow, I will be off for more than 1 week, which means there won't be any new map/airstrike/fortification/mid-range strikes update, apart from some small tweets.

I will however continue to follow the overall trends.
In total, I have 270 geolocated strikes on trucks and vehicles since january, most of those are from May to June.

The key Rostov-Crimea road remains the priority target, but roads in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblast have also been largely targeted. Image
Read 13 tweets

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