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Joni Askola Profile picture
@joni_askola
Sep 15, 2024 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/11 Day 41: Ukraine was well-prepared for the initial phases of the Kursk operation, and it seems they have also made solid preparations for the ongoing phase. Image
2/11 The fog of war is still dense, but it appears that Ukraine held off until russia's counteroffensive began before launching its own operation south of Glushkovo. Image
3/11 Ukrainian forces maintained their advance in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and carried out offensive operations in the region on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 depicts Ukrainian forces active in southern Veseloye. Image
4/11 Additionally, russian milbloggers stated that Ukrainian forces made advances west of Medvezhye (located southwest of Glushkovo) and in the fields south of Tetkino (approximately 25 km southwest of Glushkovo) near the border with Sumy Oblast. Image
5/11 A russian milblogger asserted that Ukrainian forces captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, located north of Sudzha. Image
6/11 russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces persisted in their attacks southwest of Korenevo near Apanasovka; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Obukhovka; east of Korenevo near Maryevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka on September 13 and 14. Image
7/11 russian forces recently reclaimed territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and continued their counterattacks on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 shows that russian forces entered western Lyubimovka. Image
8/11 russia is making significant efforts and deploying some elite units as Putin's October 1st deadline to drive Ukrainians out of the Kursk region is just about two weeks away. Image
9/11 It will be intriguing to observe where russia will launch its next attacks and whether Ukraine will be able to advance further north, potentially isolating some of the russian troops stationed south of the Seym River. Image
10/11 Ukraine appears to be well-prepared for the ongoing operations, and the success of the Kursk operation will at least partially be evaluated based on how much russia has to commit to expel Ukrainians from the region. Image
11/11 Sources:



understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image

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More from @joni_askola

Joni Askola Profile picture
Jul 17
1/6 THREAD: One of Putin’s biggest strategic failures is barely talked about.

He invaded Ukraine, claiming NATO was an existential threat to Russia

But as a direct result of that failed invasion, NATO’s border with russia has doubledImage
2/6 Before 2022, russia shared a small NATO border with Norway and the Baltics.

Now?

Finland joined NATO, adding over 1,300 km of new border.

Sweden joined too, strengthening NATO’s northern flank.

All because of Putin’s warImage
3/6 russia claimed it had to invade Ukraine to ”push NATO back.”

Instead, it pushed NATO forward.

This is a historic strategic blunder — and somehow, it’s not getting the attention it deservesImage
Read 6 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jul 16
1/7 THREAD: Europe is at war.

Not in theory. Not in the future. Now.

russia is invading a European country, bombing civilians daily, launching drones into EU airspace, and waging hybrid war.

We ignore it because it’s painful. But denial won’t stop the war — it will spread itImage
2/7 Ukraine is Europe.

And russia’s war on Ukraine is a war on European sovereignty, security, and values.

This isn’t just Ukraine’s fight.

It’s Europe’s war — whether we admit it or notImage
3/7 russia already considers itself at war with the West.

It acts like it. We don’t.

That’s our biggest mistake.

11 years of escalation — from Crimea to full-scale invasion. Now even north korea is sending troops.

And we are still waitingImage
Read 7 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jul 16
1/6 THREAD: 🇺🇦🇪🇺

When will Europe finally send troops to Western Ukraine — not to fight, but to train, guard the borders, and help Ukraine win?

Even a few brigades could make a real difference.

Let’s stop surviving. Let’s start accelerating the end of this warImage
2/6 Trump now allows US weapons sales to Ukraine — including Patriot air defense. That’s great!

But he still refuses to sanction russia.

And his ”50 more days” move? It’s weakness disguised as strategy.

Europe can’t afford to wait. We must act — nowImage
3/6 This war is existential — not just for Ukraine, but for Europe in its entirety.

russia is all in. Even north korean troops are helping them.

Europe must stop hiding behind hypotheticals and start leading.

No more ”after the war” plans. The war is nowImage
Read 6 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jul 15
1/5 THREAD: Too big to be a coincidence?

On July 3rd, Putin told Trump he’d use the next 60 days to seize more Ukrainian land.

Trump just gave him exactly 60 days — from that call until his tariff deadline. 60 days of Ukrainian suffering.

A gift? Or a secret deal?Image
2/5 It’s not impossible:

During their talks, Putin said he’d use the next 60 days to advance.

What if the deal was: ”Take what you can in 60 days, then we negotiate”?

No sanctions. No real pressure. Just time — for Putin to finish the jobImage
3/5 Yes, Trump now allows US weapons sales to Ukraine. That’s good.

But he still refuses to sanction russia.

His ”50 more days” move? It’s weakness disguised as strategy — 50 days of Ukrainian death and suffering.

Putin gets time. AgainImage
Read 5 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jul 14
1/5 THREAD:

🚨 Trump just made his ”major announcements” on Ukraine & russia.

There’s good news — and deeply frustrating news.

Let’s break down what just happened 👇Image
2/5 ✅ The good: Trump will now allow Europeans to buy US weapons for Ukraine — including Patriot air defense systems and PAC interceptors.

That’s a huge step forward — especially since Europe failed to order SAMP/T batteries. Credit where it’s dueImage
3/5 ❌ The bad: Instead of finally sanctioning russia, Trump gave them 50 more days before maybe imposing 100% tariffs.

That’s meaningless. There’s barely any trade US-russia trade. He will TACO on secondary tariffs

It’s just ”2 more weeks” energy — except now it’s 7 more weeksImage
Read 5 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jul 14
1/7 THREAD: Finally?

🚨 Trump is expected to make a major announcement today on russia & Ukraine.

Rumors are flying: JASSM cruise missiles, sanctions, air defense, frozen assets, NATO coordination.

Is this a real turning point — or just another twist in the chaos?Image
2/7 Among the whispers:

- Long-range strike capabilities (possibly JASSM)
- Use of frozen russian assets
- Patriot batteries and PAC interceptors paid by NATO countries
- New sanctions on russia

Nothing confirmed — but stakes are highImage
3/7 If true, this would mark a massive shift.

Trump has long been soft on russia and hostile to Ukraine.

A pivot now would be a huge strategic failure for Putin — he may have lost his most important ally in the West — at least for nowImage
Read 7 tweets

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