Joni Askola Profile picture
Sep 15, 2024 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/11 Day 41: Ukraine was well-prepared for the initial phases of the Kursk operation, and it seems they have also made solid preparations for the ongoing phase. Image
2/11 The fog of war is still dense, but it appears that Ukraine held off until russia's counteroffensive began before launching its own operation south of Glushkovo. Image
3/11 Ukrainian forces maintained their advance in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and carried out offensive operations in the region on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 depicts Ukrainian forces active in southern Veseloye. Image
4/11 Additionally, russian milbloggers stated that Ukrainian forces made advances west of Medvezhye (located southwest of Glushkovo) and in the fields south of Tetkino (approximately 25 km southwest of Glushkovo) near the border with Sumy Oblast. Image
5/11 A russian milblogger asserted that Ukrainian forces captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, located north of Sudzha. Image
6/11 russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces persisted in their attacks southwest of Korenevo near Apanasovka; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Obukhovka; east of Korenevo near Maryevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka on September 13 and 14. Image
7/11 russian forces recently reclaimed territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and continued their counterattacks on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 shows that russian forces entered western Lyubimovka. Image
8/11 russia is making significant efforts and deploying some elite units as Putin's October 1st deadline to drive Ukrainians out of the Kursk region is just about two weeks away. Image
9/11 It will be intriguing to observe where russia will launch its next attacks and whether Ukraine will be able to advance further north, potentially isolating some of the russian troops stationed south of the Seym River. Image
10/11 Ukraine appears to be well-prepared for the ongoing operations, and the success of the Kursk operation will at least partially be evaluated based on how much russia has to commit to expel Ukrainians from the region. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Aug 15
1/7 Alaska Talks: russia has less leverage and is in a worse position today than it was in Istanbul in 2022.

Yet its demands remain almost unchanged.

And peace? Still nowhere in sight.
Here’s why 👇Image
2/7 russia has never offered Ukraine a serious peace deal during the full-scale war.

Why? Because it hasn’t reached its strategic goals.

Ending the war now would mean losing.

So it keeps demanding surrender—and calling it “peace” Image
3/7 In Istanbul 2022, russia occupied nearly 30% of Ukraine and was still advancing fast.

Today, it holds less than 20%.
It’s suffered over a million casualties.

And it still hasn’t captured a single Ukrainian regional capital. 0/23.

That’s not leverage. That’s failure Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 13
1/6 ❌ Why russia keeps making unrealistic demands to end the war in Ukraine — and why it can’t afford peace

The truth is simple, but brutal👇Image
2/6 Why does russia keep making unrealistic demands to end the war in Ukraine?

Because it’s losing. Strategically.

And it can’t afford to end the war because of that. As simple as that.

Map: ISW Image
3/6 russia’s strategic goals — ”demilitarization and demilitarization” — were never vague.

They mean government overthrow.

A pro-russian puppet government. New constitution. russian troops on Ukrainian soil.

Today, russia is further from that goal than in March 2022 Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 13
1/5 Appeasement doesn’t work on people like Trump

European leaders are repeating the same mistake they made with Putin — and are still making with Xi.

Appeasing aggressive, authoritarian, imperialist leaders doesn’t calm them. It emboldens themImage
2/5 Authoritarians don’t respect weakness.

They take what’s easy. They test limits.

They respond not to kindness, but to strength.

Putin, Xi, and Trump follow this pattern. Appeasement invites escalation. Firmness earns respect Image
3/5 Trump thrives on bluffing.

He pushes until someone pushes back.

Trying to please him only makes things worse.

That doesn’t mean we need aggression — but we do need firmness. Being tougher works better than tiptoeing Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 13
1/7 Unprovoked — How russia lied to justify its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022

This thread breaks down why both wars were unprovoked — and how russia had to lie to justify them👇Image
2/7 The 2014 invasion: a war of opportunity, not defense

Ukraine didn’t threaten russia. It was undergoing a democratic revolution — Euromaidan. Putin saw Ukraine slipping away, seized Crimea, and fueled war in Donbas. No NATO threat. No genocide of russian speakers. Just liesImage
3/7 russia’s 2014 lie: ”protecting russian speakers”

Putin claimed they were under threat. But russian was widely spoken — even by Ukraine’s leaders. There was no persecution. The real fear? Ukraine choosing Europe over MoscowImage
Read 7 tweets
Aug 12
1/10 THREAD: Before the Alaska Talks begin, here are a few facts about the war in Ukraine worth remembering.

russia is failing strategically — despite the immense suffering it continues to cause.

Let’s break down why, after 3.5 years of full-scale war, russia is still losing👇Image
2/10 russia launched the full-scale invasion convinced Ukraine would collapse.

Its goal: turn Ukraine into a satellite state.

That was the strategic objective in February 2022 — and it still is today.

russia failed the moment Zelensky stayed and Kyiv held Image
3/10 The war has been horrific. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have died because of russian imperialism.

But strategically, russia is further from its goals now than it was in March 2022.

A pathetic and costly failure Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 12
1/6 THREAD: What happens when Trump and Putin sit down in Alaska?

The stakes are enormous. The pressure is real. And the outcomes could reshape the war in Ukraine.

Here are 4 key scenarios — not ranked by likelihood, but all very possible 👇Image
2/6 Scenario 1: The Gaslight Trap

Trump meet Putin, falls for his gaslighting — maybe even willingly.

He pushes Ukraine to accept an unfair and humiliating deal, possibly just for a ceasefire.

Ukraine refuses.

We are back to square one, with Trump blaming Ukraine againImage
3/6 Scenario 2: The Walkaway

Trump sees through Putin’s game.

He realizes Putin is just buying time and walks away.

No deal. No mediation. Status quo.

Europe can still buy US weapons for Ukraine.

Trump exits the peace stage — for nowImage
Read 6 tweets

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