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Joni Askola Profile picture
@joni_askola
Sep 15, 2024 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/11 Day 41: Ukraine was well-prepared for the initial phases of the Kursk operation, and it seems they have also made solid preparations for the ongoing phase. Image
2/11 The fog of war is still dense, but it appears that Ukraine held off until russia's counteroffensive began before launching its own operation south of Glushkovo. Image
3/11 Ukrainian forces maintained their advance in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and carried out offensive operations in the region on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 depicts Ukrainian forces active in southern Veseloye. Image
4/11 Additionally, russian milbloggers stated that Ukrainian forces made advances west of Medvezhye (located southwest of Glushkovo) and in the fields south of Tetkino (approximately 25 km southwest of Glushkovo) near the border with Sumy Oblast. Image
5/11 A russian milblogger asserted that Ukrainian forces captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, located north of Sudzha. Image
6/11 russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces persisted in their attacks southwest of Korenevo near Apanasovka; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Obukhovka; east of Korenevo near Maryevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka on September 13 and 14. Image
7/11 russian forces recently reclaimed territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and continued their counterattacks on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 shows that russian forces entered western Lyubimovka. Image
8/11 russia is making significant efforts and deploying some elite units as Putin's October 1st deadline to drive Ukrainians out of the Kursk region is just about two weeks away. Image
9/11 It will be intriguing to observe where russia will launch its next attacks and whether Ukraine will be able to advance further north, potentially isolating some of the russian troops stationed south of the Seym River. Image
10/11 Ukraine appears to be well-prepared for the ongoing operations, and the success of the Kursk operation will at least partially be evaluated based on how much russia has to commit to expel Ukrainians from the region. Image
11/11 Sources:



understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image

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More from @joni_askola

Joni Askola Profile picture
Oct 2
1/8 Is Telegram's Pavel Durov working for Russia?

He built Telegram claiming to escape Putin’s grip.

But leaked border data shows he visited Russia over 50 times between 2015 and 2021. That’s not exile.

He also recently helped Kremlin-linked candidates in Romania and Moldova Image
2/8 In Moldova, Durov claimed he refused to block Telegram channels before elections.

He cited pressure from France and framed it as a Western attack on free speech. No proof.

Why make this move on election day? Image
3/8 Same pattern in Romania.

Durov accused France of trying to silence conservative voices.

But those voices were linked to pro-Russian candidates.

France denied it. Russia amplified it.

The pro-Russian candidate gained support and looked like a martyr Image
Read 8 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Oct 1
1/13 The Kremlin fed the West a poisoned narrative based on a lie, and many swallowed it.

But something seems to be changing.

Is the West finally done with Russia’s poisoned narrative? Image
2/13 You have heard it:

Ukraine cannot win.
Russia is advancing slowly but surely.
Cities like Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk are about to fall.
Russia has endless men and resources.
Ukraine must compromise or surrender.

This is the narrative. But it is a poisoned one Image
3/13 This narrative was crafted in Moscow.

Echoed by Trump’s team and others. Repeated by respected analysts and media.

It is designed to demoralize, divide, and distort. Its goal is to make you believe Ukraine cannot win so you stop supporting it Image
Read 13 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Sep 30
1/7 Hegseth’s hyped speech was exactly what everyone expected.

Another Trump-era move that looks bold on the surface but ends up sabotaging the US and its ability to project power Image
2/7 This speech could have happened on Teams or by email.

It wasn’t important enough to gather that many generals in one place.

Worse, it actively harms the US armed forces Image
3/7 Hegseth announced sudden physical standards, even for generals.

He wants to apply male standards to women, which will drastically reduce their numbers.

He also wants to stop “walking on egg shells” — code for bringing back hazing Image
Read 7 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Sep 29
1/9 European countries are preparing to defend against the Russia that invaded Ukraine in 2022.

But that version of Russia no longer exists.

The Russia of 2025 or 2027 is more dangerous, more experienced, and far ahead in unmanned warfare.

Europe is not ready Image
2/9 Russia is in a war economy.

Its society is used to war and accepts high losses.

It receives military and financial aid from China, North Korea, Iran, and Belarus.

It is evolving fast while Europe remains in peacetime mode Image
3/9 Russia dominates unmanned warfare.

It builds drones at scale, adapts tactics quickly, and integrates them deeply into combat.

Europe has the theoretical knowledge but lacks production, battlefield experience, and urgency Image
Read 9 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Sep 28
1/7 Let’s talk about Hungary.

Conservatives around the world praise it as a model nation.

They say it represents Christian values, national strength, and anti-woke politics. But almost none of that holds up under scrutiny.

Hungary is a warning, not a model Image
2/7 Hungary is the most corrupt country in the EU.

Orbán and his circle siphon off public money. EU funds disappear into private hands.

Public services are collapsing.

Orbán’s family profits from state contracts and hosts drag shows in hotels they own in Spain Image
3/7 Hungary is one of the poorest countries in the EU.

Its military is weak.

There is no real freedom of press.
Independent media is crushed or bought out. Critics are silenced.

This is not strength. It is authoritarian decay Image
Read 7 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Sep 26
1/5 Russia’s economy is not fine.

It is in stagflation, with high inflation and low growth.

The war on Ukraine is draining resources and it is not sustainable.

Ukraine's strike campaign on Russian refineries is making things worse Image
2/5 Many Russians, especially outside big cities, have gained financially from the war.

The military and defense industry are overpaying to recruit.

This drives up wages and inflation.

The war economy feels good now but it has been overheating Image
3/5 Russia has a massive labor shortage.

Interest rates jumped from 7.5 percent to 21 percent to fight inflation.

Now they are at 17 percent to avoid killing the little growth left.

Reserves are depleted and frozen assets are unreachable Image
Read 5 tweets

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