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Joni Askola Profile picture
@joni_askola
Sep 15, 2024 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/11 Day 41: Ukraine was well-prepared for the initial phases of the Kursk operation, and it seems they have also made solid preparations for the ongoing phase. Image
2/11 The fog of war is still dense, but it appears that Ukraine held off until russia's counteroffensive began before launching its own operation south of Glushkovo. Image
3/11 Ukrainian forces maintained their advance in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and carried out offensive operations in the region on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 depicts Ukrainian forces active in southern Veseloye. Image
4/11 Additionally, russian milbloggers stated that Ukrainian forces made advances west of Medvezhye (located southwest of Glushkovo) and in the fields south of Tetkino (approximately 25 km southwest of Glushkovo) near the border with Sumy Oblast. Image
5/11 A russian milblogger asserted that Ukrainian forces captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, located north of Sudzha. Image
6/11 russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces persisted in their attacks southwest of Korenevo near Apanasovka; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Obukhovka; east of Korenevo near Maryevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka on September 13 and 14. Image
7/11 russian forces recently reclaimed territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and continued their counterattacks on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 shows that russian forces entered western Lyubimovka. Image
8/11 russia is making significant efforts and deploying some elite units as Putin's October 1st deadline to drive Ukrainians out of the Kursk region is just about two weeks away. Image
9/11 It will be intriguing to observe where russia will launch its next attacks and whether Ukraine will be able to advance further north, potentially isolating some of the russian troops stationed south of the Seym River. Image
10/11 Ukraine appears to be well-prepared for the ongoing operations, and the success of the Kursk operation will at least partially be evaluated based on how much russia has to commit to expel Ukrainians from the region. Image
11/11 Sources:



understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image

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More from @joni_askola

Joni Askola Profile picture
Feb 10
1/12 EU regulation is like kryptonite to our enemies🧵 Image
2/12 There is a reason why Putin, Musk, Trump, Vance, Thiel, and Xi all spend fortunes to attack Brussels.

They do not hate the EU because it fails.

They hate it because of its potential.

Our unity is their nightmare Image
3/12 Think about the strategy. Why do they fund anti-EU movements?

Because they can bully Italy. They can buy Hungary. They can pressure France.

But they cannot bully a unified bloc of 450 million people.

When we stand together, their leverage evaporates Image
Read 12 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Feb 2
1/11 The war is far from over, but Ukraine is still winning.

Here is how we can make sure that it defeats Russia 🧵 Image
2/11 Russia’s 2022 invasion is a genocide.

They use genocidal rhetoric to justify erasing Ukraine's identity. They kidnap children and commit daily war crimes to punish civilians for simply refusing to be Russian.

This is a systematic attempt to destroy a nation Image
3/11 The human cost is massive.

In Mariupol, the death toll in 3 months potentially exceeded the total deaths in Gaza throughout the entire war, despite a much smaller population.

People underestimate this scale and don't see that Russia is committing genocide in Europe Image
Read 11 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jan 23
1/12 “Value-Based Realism” was a major theme at Davos.

It is being sold by Stubb and Carney as a smart, pragmatic path for the West, but I think it is a strategic trap.

Here is why this new realism might actually lead to managed decline 🧵 Image
2/12 The concept is the latest intellectual fashion.

@alexstubb and @MarkJCarney are pushing it as the ultimate manual for "middle powers" like Canada, the UK, and the EU.

It sounds sophisticated to be principled yet pragmatic, but we need to look a bit closer Image
3/12 The logic is simple: stop waiting for a perfect world and deal with the brutal one we have.

It is an honest description of how we behave right now, post-Biden.

That is exactly the problem.

It takes our current failure of will and rebrands it as a high-level strategy Image
Read 12 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jan 21
1/5 Europe needs a reality check.

The strategies that worked during Trump's first term are useless now.

We tried playing nice, and it failed.

It is high time to stop the appeasement and start facing reality Image
2/5 The time for Europeans to appease Trump is over.

We have spent the last year watching our tactics from "Trump 1" fail miserably in "Trump 2."

Flattery and silence do not work anymore.

He sees them as weakness, not respect Image
3/5 Trump lives in a bubble of total confirmation.

He is surrounded by sycophants who are too afraid to tell him the truth or challenge his worst impulses.

Because no one in his inner circle dares to confront him, he believes he can bully Europe without consequence Image
Read 5 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jan 20
1/8 Europe is sleepwalking into a forever war because we are too afraid to actually win.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start ending it.

Here is how 🧵 Image
2/8 Europe has the power to end the war in Ukraine much faster but it requires a total shift in strategy.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start winning it.

Here is the roadmap to force a Russian collapse👇 Image
3/8 We must help Ukraine scale its domestic defense industry in every possible way.

This means direct funding and technical advice.

A Ukraine that can build its own weapons is a Ukraine that can sustain the fight without relying solely on foreign logistics Image
Read 8 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Jan 15
1/7 Trump is no isolationist:

He is a show interventionist, a cowardly form of imperialist interventionism that is also meant to entertain the world Image
2/7 Trump's entire campaign was built on the lie that he would end wars and stop regime change operations.

It has been a year since he promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and the fighting continues Image
3/7 While he appointed isolationists to his administration, his actions tell a different story.

He claims to have ended eight wars but he hasn't ended any. In reality it looks more likely that he will start eight new ones before his term is over Image
Read 7 tweets

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