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Joni Askola Profile picture
@joni_askola
Sep 15, 2024 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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1/11 Day 41: Ukraine was well-prepared for the initial phases of the Kursk operation, and it seems they have also made solid preparations for the ongoing phase. Image
2/11 The fog of war is still dense, but it appears that Ukraine held off until russia's counteroffensive began before launching its own operation south of Glushkovo. Image
3/11 Ukrainian forces maintained their advance in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and carried out offensive operations in the region on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 depicts Ukrainian forces active in southern Veseloye. Image
4/11 Additionally, russian milbloggers stated that Ukrainian forces made advances west of Medvezhye (located southwest of Glushkovo) and in the fields south of Tetkino (approximately 25 km southwest of Glushkovo) near the border with Sumy Oblast. Image
5/11 A russian milblogger asserted that Ukrainian forces captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, located north of Sudzha. Image
6/11 russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces persisted in their attacks southwest of Korenevo near Apanasovka; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Obukhovka; east of Korenevo near Maryevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka on September 13 and 14. Image
7/11 russian forces recently reclaimed territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and continued their counterattacks on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 shows that russian forces entered western Lyubimovka. Image
8/11 russia is making significant efforts and deploying some elite units as Putin's October 1st deadline to drive Ukrainians out of the Kursk region is just about two weeks away. Image
9/11 It will be intriguing to observe where russia will launch its next attacks and whether Ukraine will be able to advance further north, potentially isolating some of the russian troops stationed south of the Seym River. Image
10/11 Ukraine appears to be well-prepared for the ongoing operations, and the success of the Kursk operation will at least partially be evaluated based on how much russia has to commit to expel Ukrainians from the region. Image
11/11 Sources:



understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image

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More from @joni_askola

Joni Askola Profile picture
Dec 18
1/10 Ukraine must make sure Russians never feel in control.

It is going more and more asymmetric because playing fair will not win this war where Russia never does.

Ukraine must push this strategy even harder Image
2/10 Just defending gives Russia no reason to stop.

Trading land for time is smart, but not enough.

Ukraine is striking deep inside Russia and must scale up production even further and shift toward more asymmetric tactics to make the war far more costly for Russia Image
3/10 Ukraine’s two-part strategy is to trade land for time and crush Russia’s economy with deep strikes on oil and infrastructure.

It works, but it needs acceleration.

Every month of delay gives Moscow breathing room Image
Read 10 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Dec 16
1/12 China’s favorite US president:

Trump is extremely soft on China. The idea that he’s a China hawk is one of the biggest misconceptions.

He’s almost as soft on Beijing as he is on Moscow. Both back him for that reason.

Here are a few key examples👇 Image
2/12 Trump keeps threatening to pull US troops from allies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan.

He constantly pressures and criticizes those allies.

Undermining security guarantees sends one message: America is weak and unreliable Image
3/12 Trump allows NVIDIA to sell advanced H200 chips to China, tech that strengthens Beijing’s AI ambitions.

That’s one of the few areas where the US is ahead.

So much for “decoupling” Image
Read 12 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Dec 8
1/9 Europe must face reality:

The US under Trump is waging a hybrid war against us, siding with our enemies, and turning from ally to adversary Image
2/9 Trump’s new national security strategy and his administration’s actions prove it.

They are not protecting Europe.

They are undermining us Image
3/9 They back anti-EU, pro-Russia, pro-China far-right parties.

They interfere politically to sabotage us and try to throw Ukraine under the bus while siding with Putin Image
Read 9 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Dec 2
1/9 Ukraine cannot win this war by only playing fair when Russia never does.

Russia has more men, more money, and zero limits.

To end the war faster, Ukraine must go more asymmetric and bring the fight deeper into Russia Image
2/9 Why is this needed?

Just defending gives Russia no reason to stop.

Trading land for time is smart, but not enough. Ukraine needs to hit Russia where it hurts.

It already does with strikes, but it must do even more to show the world it still has cards to play Image
3/9 Ukraine’s current two-part strategy is to trade land for time and crush Russia’s economy with deep strikes.

It is good, but it needs acceleration.

The war must become even more costly, even faster, for Russia Image
Read 9 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Dec 1
1/6 Belgium is helping Russia in its war against Ukraine.

How? It is the final obstacle preventing Ukraine from accessing Russia’s frozen assets.

Does Belgium want to be remembered as Russia’s helper? Image
2/6 Belgium is still blocking Russia’s frozen assets from being transferred to Ukraine, constantly finding new excuses to help Russia.

Does Belgium want to be remembered as the country that made Ukraine and Europe lose to Russia? Image
3/6 Belgium has been blocking this for months. It is the only country left doing so.

First, it used legal fears as an excuse. Europe worked to address those concerns, even with help from Norway. After that, Belgium's PM De Wever found new excuses, and Trump provided them to him Image
Read 6 tweets
Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 27
1/6 How should the world look according to Curtis Yarvin, the ideological father of JD Vance, Peter Thiel, and other powerful figures in the US?

And why should we be worried? 🧵 Image
2/6 Thiel, Musk, and their circle have gained enormous influence in the US. They helped pick Trump’s VP and installed JD Vance in that role.

These far-right oligarchs are isolationist, pro-Russia, pro-China, and hostile to democracy.

Their guiding thinker is Curtis Yarvin Image
3/6 Yarvin’s core belief: democracy is a mistake.

He argues freedom creates chaos and inefficiency.

His solution? Replace democratic governments with authoritarian “CEO style” rule, where one leader runs a country like a corporation Image
Read 6 tweets

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