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Joni Askola

@joni_askola

Sep 15 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

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1/11 Day 41: Ukraine was well-prepared for the initial phases of the Kursk operation, and it seems they have also made solid preparations for the ongoing phase.

2/11 The fog of war is still dense, but it appears that Ukraine held off until russia's counteroffensive began before launching its own operation south of Glushkovo.

3/11 Ukrainian forces maintained their advance in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk Oblast, and carried out offensive operations in the region on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 depicts Ukrainian forces active in southern Veseloye.

4/11 Additionally, russian milbloggers stated that Ukrainian forces made advances west of Medvezhye (located southwest of Glushkovo) and in the fields south of Tetkino (approximately 25 km southwest of Glushkovo) near the border with Sumy Oblast.

5/11 A russian milblogger asserted that Ukrainian forces captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, located north of Sudzha.

6/11 russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces persisted in their attacks southwest of Korenevo near Apanasovka; southeast of Korenevo near Lyubimovka and Obukhovka; east of Korenevo near Maryevka; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka on September 13 and 14.

7/11 russian forces recently reclaimed territory in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and continued their counterattacks on September 14. Geolocated footage released on September 13 shows that russian forces entered western Lyubimovka.

8/11 russia is making significant efforts and deploying some elite units as Putin's October 1st deadline to drive Ukrainians out of the Kursk region is just about two weeks away.

9/11 It will be intriguing to observe where russia will launch its next attacks and whether Ukraine will be able to advance further north, potentially isolating some of the russian troops stationed south of the Seym River.

10/11 Ukraine appears to be well-prepared for the ongoing operations, and the success of the Kursk operation will at least partially be evaluated based on how much russia has to commit to expel Ukrainians from the region.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1834865519217820039

11/11 Sources:

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1834865519217820039

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1835225302684897466

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

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More from @joni_askola

Joni Askola

@joni_askola

Sep 16

1/9 No stones should be left unturned: Ukraine's new units need additional equipment, and the country should also increase mobilization to properly replace losses in its existing units.

2/9 Officials state that mobilization is progressing as planned; however, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary defense committee, informed the FT that it will take an additional three months for the newly-trained troops to have an impact on the battlefield.

3/9 President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Ukraine is currently unable to equip even 4 of the 14 required brigades due to a shortage of weapons.

Read 9 tweets

Joni Askola

@joni_askola

Sep 14

1/11 Why do we keep discussing russia's red lines without establishing more of our own? What are the West's red lines concerning russia?

2/11 Obama stated that the use of chemical weapons would constitute a red line in Syria, yet he did not take action when Assad employed them. Similarly, Ukraine could have represented a red line, but the West opted to allow russia to take Crimea and attack the Donbas.

3/11 The remainder of Ukraine could have been a red line in 2022, but we faltered once more and permitted russia to blackmail us and launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which ultimately ended in failure, but at the cost of many Ukrainian lives.

Read 11 tweets

Joni Askola

@joni_askola

Sep 14

1/17 The world's most successful disinformation operation? While russia may be struggling in its invasion and losing the war, it appears to be succeeding in the information war. How significantly have its extensive information operations influenced global opinion?

2/17 Even many of us who were aware of russia's nature and capabilities have been surprised multiple times during the ongoing full-scale war, particularly at its onset. While it was anticipated, it still came as a shock.

3/17 russia has inherited a significant amount from the Soviet Union, including some of its undeserved prestige, military assets, diplomatic relationships, and global influence. Additionally, it has continued many of its influence operations.

Read 17 tweets

Joni Askola

@joni_askola

Sep 14

1/5 Logic 101: The international community views the illegally annexed regions as part of Ukraine, a sentiment echoed by Vladimir Putin himself, who inadvertently acknowledges that these territories aren't russian when he sets red lines regarding strikes on russian territory.

2/5 As the West debates whether the US should permit Ukraine to use Western long-range weapons within russian territory, Putin inadvertently concedes that the annexed regions are not russian through his red lines.

3/5 This is a point that has been made before and remains true. Ukraine has repeatedly targeted illegally annexed territories using Western weapons, yet there has been no response from russia.

Read 5 tweets

Joni Askola

@joni_askola

Sep 13

1/9 Day 39: russia's counteroffensive continues in the Kursk region, while Ukraine responds with attacks elsewhere. The fog of war remains thick, making it difficult to clearly discern the details of the ongoing military operations.

2/9 russian forces continued counterattacking across the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 12, but made only marginal gains, likely due to ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area.

3/9 russian forces have advanced in Kursk Oblast areas not yet controlled by Ukraine. However, they will likely face greater difficulty when counterattacking into areas where Ukrainian forces maintain control.

Read 9 tweets

Joni Askola

@joni_askola

Sep 13

1/21 Masters of Bluff: russia may want to project an image of invincibility, but it is largely relying on bluffing. russia is in fact weak and can be defeated. This invasion of Ukraine has been a monumental failure for russia in every possible way.

2/21 A lot of people think russia is unbeatable, falling for its bluff. These are often the same pro-russians who believed Ukraine had no chance from the start, even if some hide their sympathies.

3/21 russia is militarily and economically weak, but it excels at bluffing and disinformation. russia has managed to ride on the reputation of the former Soviet Union, bluffing to make people believe it has the second-strongest military in the world.

Read 21 tweets

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