Ian Ellis Profile picture
Sep 15 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Current situation:

- China & Russia launched large-scale military drills
- Unprecedented PLA air & naval activity around Taiwan
- PLA spy plane entered Japanese airspace (1st time since WW2)
- Philippines tracks 203 Chinese ships in the South China Sea (most ever recorded) 🧵 Image
China & Russia began a series of joint exercises & patrols last week:
PLA air & naval activity around Taiwan has reached new highs this year:
Beijing has carried out several amphibious exercises & operations this summer:
On 26 August, a Chinese Y-9 electronic intelligence aircraft violated the airspace over Japan’s territorial waters at the Danjo Islands in the East China Sea.

“The incident marked the first time that Japan has publicly announced that a Chinese military aircraft had violated its airspace. Chinese military aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles routinely operate and transit through international airspace off Japan while in turn, the JASDF scrambles its fighter aircraft to monitor both Chinese and Russian aircraft flying through its Air Defence Identification Zone.”
“The Philippine Navy spotted 203 Chinese vessels near the country's nine occupied features in the West Philippine Sea last week — marking Beijing's largest naval presence in the contested waters since the start of the year.

Of the 203 Chinese ships, at least 71 were spotted within the waters of Sabina Shoal, according to the Philippine Navy. Over half or 53 of these are Chinese maritime militia vessels, while the rest are Coast Guard and army deployments.”
A five-month standoff between Manila and Beijing over a disputed maritime feature in the South China Sea has entered a new phase after the Philippine Coast Guard flagship has withdrawn: @Aaron_MatthewIL

“Stationed at Sabina since April 16 amid allegations of a Chinese island reclamation project, the Coast Guard flagship maintained a Philippine presence despite an increasing number of People’s Liberation Army Navy, China Coast Guard and China Maritime Militia vessels surrounding the vessel. Teresa Magbanua’s mission eventually culminated in a series of incidents in August, which saw Chinese forces harass, ram, water cannon and blockade ships attempting to resupply the vessel or transiting near the shoal. The final incident of August included a ramming of the flagship itself.”
China conducting intrusive patrols & illegal surveys in Malaysia’s EEZ:

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More from @ianellisjones

Sep 16
Last night, on primetime TV, America witnessed “the most dangerous conflict no one is talking about”

60 Minutes experienced (& documented) China’s “just short of war” tactics firsthand when their boat was intentionally rammed in the SCS

A must watch — featuring @GordianKnotRay!
If you’re looking for someone who talks about the conflict no one is talking about, @GordianKnotRay is a must follow.
Link to full episode below.

“If there's going to be a military conflict between the United States and China, the thinking in Washington goes, it will most likely happen if China tries to invade Taiwan. But lately tensions have escalated precariously in another part of the South China Sea-the waters off the western coast of the Philippines where an international tribunal ruled the Philippines has exclusive economic rights.”
Read 4 tweets
Sep 15
Last week, Russia launched exercise “Ocean 2024,” its largest naval drill of the post-Soviet era, alongside China in the Pacific
 
• 400+ warships, subs, & support vessels
• 120 aircraft & 125 UAVs
• 90,000+ troops
+ PLA Navy 4-ship surface action group & 15 aircraft Image
In addition to “Ocean 2024,” Russia is participating in China’s “Northern/Interaction-2024” exercise & both countries will conduct their 5th joint maritime patrol (the 2nd this year).
The large-scale military exercise will run until 16 September.

“Analysts say the joint naval and air drills are an effort by Russia and China to deepen military ties and counter increased security coordination between the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region.

“Russia wants to demonstrate that they can engage in a full-scale war with Ukraine while deploying resources to the Indo-Pacific region and China wants to show that they can deepen its relationship with Russia and cause problems in the region, primarily in the South China Sea but also around Japan,” said Stephen Nagy, a regional security expert at the International Christian University in Japan.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 27
Big U.S. Navy carrier news 🇺🇸

- Roosevelt & Lincoln carrier strike groups ordered to remain in the Middle East
- Eisenhower, Truman, & Ford sailed together in a rare multi-carrier formation
- Washington underway en route to the Indo-Pacific
- Truman deploying “later this year” Image
Yesterday, the U.S. Secretary of Defense “ordered the presence of two Carrier Strike Groups to remain in the region.” Image
On 24 August, USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), & USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) sailed in a “multi-carrier formation” & conducted an ordnance transfer in the Atlantic Ocean.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 26
The arrival of @CVN_72 in U.S. Central Command represents the Navy’s first F-35C deployment to the Middle East.

Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 314, embarked on ABE, is the only operationally capable U.S. Marine Corps F-35C Squadron in the fleet.
The F-35C Joint Strike Fighters are the world's only 5th-generation international carrier-based aircraft and a “first-day-of-the-war fighter with the capability to dominate adversaries in the air or on the surface while surviving the most formidable threat environments.”
F-35B Squadrons are deployed and operate frequently in the Middle East, but the F-35C has additional payload and fuel capacity, extended range (due to no vertical landing capability), and is catapult-launched (which requires less gas to take off).
Read 5 tweets
Aug 26
Incredible pics — 3x U.S. Navy aircraft carriers sail in multi-carrier formation & conduct an ordinance transfer in the Atlantic Ocean 👀

Not something you see every day. @TheCVN69 @USSHARRYSTRUMAN @CVN78_GRFord Image
The Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) transits the Atlantic Ocean with the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) during an ordinance transfer, Aug. 24.

The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), and the Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) are underway in the Atlantic Ocean for an ordnance transfer between the three ships and the Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo ship USNS William McLean (T-AKE 12). (Source: DVIDS)Image
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The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) and USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), and the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), sail in formation in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 24, 2024.

USS Gerald R. Ford is the flagship of the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group. The aircraft carrier is underway in the Atlantic Ocean to further develop core unit capabilities and skills such as fuels certification and ammunition on-load during its basic phase of the optimized fleet response plan. (Source: DVIDS)Image
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Read 4 tweets
Aug 25
🚨 Special report — Why the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is the most capable in the fleet

Equipped with F-35C stealth fighters, next-gen technology, & state-of-the-art weaponry, @CVN_72 brings unrivaled capability & capacity to the Middle East.

What we (publicly) know: Image
On 11 July, @CVN_72 departed San Diego for a scheduled, routine Indo-Pacific deployment. Less than a month later, on 2 August, the schedule changed when the Secretary of Defense ordered the CSG to move from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East and, on 11 August, to accelerate its transit. Ten days later, the group arrived in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR).

But ABE is not just another CSG. It’s the most advanced, lethal, and capable in the fleet — the pinnacle of power projection — providing a combat-ready force to “protect and defend the collective maritime interests of the U.S. and its global allies and partners.”

The CSG blends and interoperates high, medium, and low-end naval and joint capabilities in a way that’s never been done before, both for offensive and defensive purposes, integrating seamlessly across military platforms, including manned and unmanned systems, conventional and unconventional, surface and subsurface, overt and covert, and more.
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), the flagship of Carrier Strike Group Three (CSG-3), is a 96,000-ton Nimitz-class supercarrier that spans 3 football fields in length — a floating city and mobile air base that can deliver 4.5 acres of sovereign U.S. territory anywhere in the world, at any time.

Collectively, CSG-3 consists of 6,000+ Sailors and Marines, who learned about the Middle East deployment after the ship had already left San Diego last month. “The Abraham Lincoln team pursues and achieves greatness every day,” says Capt. Pete Riebe, commanding officer.

The CSG is deployed to “maintain regional security and stability, keep sea lanes open, and to train to increase combined readiness. Along with our network of allies and partners, U.S. naval forces are indispensable to ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight, and unimpeded lawful commerce.”
Read 13 tweets

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