Joni Askola Profile picture
Sep 16, 2024 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/9 No stones should be left unturned: Ukraine's new units need additional equipment, and the country should also increase mobilization to properly replace losses in its existing units. Image
2/9 Officials state that mobilization is progressing as planned; however, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, the head of Ukraine’s parliamentary defense committee, informed the FT that it will take an additional three months for the newly-trained troops to have an impact on the battlefield. Image
3/9 President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Ukraine is currently unable to equip even 4 of the 14 required brigades due to a shortage of weapons. Image
4/9 Ukraine needs to establish new units to facilitate rotations; however, it should also prioritize replacing losses in its existing units. Many units are short on infantry, which can be mobilized, trained, and equipped relatively easily. Image
5/9 Ukraine has the ability to mobilize, train, and equip light infantry without significant challenges. By addressing losses in its current units, Ukraine could greatly enhance its position on the front lines. Image
6/9 Ukraine's ongoing mobilization is expected to improve the situation on the front by the end of the year. Additionally, the country is gradually receiving equipment that was announced some time ago. Image
7/9 This war is existential not only for Ukraine but for Europe as a whole. Europe must significantly increase its military, financial, and humanitarian support to ensure Ukraine's victory, while Ukraine itself needs to enhance its mobilization efforts. Image
8/9 There is no justification for overlooking any opportunity during this war. This involves Ukraine ramping up its mobilization, Europe providing increased aid, and Europe also placing orders with the Ukrainian defense industry. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Apr 27
1/8 The debate over Finland buying David’s Sling from Israel is loud and polarized.

To understand it, we must separate valid concerns from harsh military realities.

Here is why the decision was made and what the critics often miss: Image
2/8 Why buy it?

Our NASAMS batteries cannot stop ballistic missiles and have limited range.

To deter a neighbor like Russia, Finland needs to shoot down advanced threats.

We cannot afford to leave our skies vulnerable Image
3/8 Fair criticism exists.

It is valid to point out Israel's war crimes, illegal border expansions, and lack of support for Ukraine.

Israel is a complex partner with different interests.

These are real moral and strategic risks for Finland that we must acknowledge Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 24
1/5 Trump has made the West incredibly vulnerable.

With the US distracted in the Middle East and munition stockpiles running low, Western deterrence is weakened.

A nightmare scenario of China and Russia launching coordinated attacks is forming.

Europe must step up faster Image
2/5 The blame for this weak deterrence falls heavily on Trump, and on Europe for not doing enough.

Trump is an unreliable, chaotic, and fundamentally weak leader.

His erratic approach to global security and the failed war in Iran have weakened the West Image
3/5 A nightmare scenario is actively forming right now.

Imagine if Russia and China coordinate to make their moves simultaneously.

With Washington absorbed by the Middle East and lacking the missiles for multiple wars, autocrats have a terrifying open window to strike Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 22
1/7 Palantir’s manifesto is a terrifying glimpse into tech-authoritarianism.

They aren't just selling software, but dictating global morality.

Who do they think they are?

Who elected Alex Karp and Peter Thiel to run the world?

Europe should stay away from Palantir Image
2/7 The manifesto openly calls for an AI arms race.

Karp claims the atomic age is over and the new era of deterrence is built on AI weapons.

They argue adversaries will build them anyway so we must do it first.

A tech firm is openly lobbying for an algorithmic cold war Image
3/7 Palantir demands a universal draft so everyone shares the risk of war, and calls to undo the pacifism of Germany and Japan.

Even if you agree, why does a tech company have a say?

A data broker shouldn't be rewriting global security and enforcing conscription Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 21
1/5 You want to minimize casualties and end Russia's war on Ukraine faster?

The only way to do that is to provide Ukraine with more long-range strike capabilities, including both Ukrainian and European ones.

Delaying only costs more innocent lives Image
2/5 We need to fund more Ukrainian missiles and drones and help them scale up production immediately.

At the same time we must produce more missiles of our own to hand over.

We absolutely need to step up the production of cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow Image
3/5 We must mass produce cheap cruise missiles like the American ERAM program.

We should get creative too.

We could pre-order Ukrainian weapons for our own militaries, let Ukraine use them to fight today, and only take delivery after the war is won Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 13
1/6 Will Orbán's defeat stop the rise of illiberalism in the West?

His fall is a massive geopolitical earthquake, but to understand its true global impact, we have to look at why he actually lost Image
2/6 Orbán did not lose because of his pro-Russian, treasonous stances.

He lost mostly because his domestic agenda completely failed.

Hungarians simply had enough of low economic growth, high inflation, and constant lies.

He promised a lot and failed to deliver Image
3/6 Even his signature social programs failed.

His highly publicized, expensive birth rate policies were a total failure.

He built a regime on the promise of national greatness, but regular citizens were left paying the price for his economic ruin Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 9
1/8 The US is facing a strategic defeat in Iran despite "winning" militarily.

Terrible planning and a complete mismatch between military action and strategic goals led to this outcome, but the war may not be over.

A thread on where things actually stand 🧵 Image
2/8 Trump's planning was horrible.

The war started two months too late to help the Iranian people.

He had no troops ready to be deployed on the ground.

What did he think he would accomplish with just a bombing campaign? Image
3/8 You cannot win this kind of war and cause a real regime change without boots on the ground or without actively helping Iran's opposition.

Instead, we saw extremely inconsistent messaging from the administration.

Bombing alone was never going to bring down the regime Image
Read 8 tweets

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