Thread by @Mylovanov

Russia encourages its soldiers, commanders, and new elites to plunder and pillage occupied Ukraine, creating incentives for atrocities. This makes them complicit while saving on salaries and turning them into criminals—a win-win for Putin. 1/

For this to work, there should be infrastructure to sell stolen goods. The market is especially large for agriculture

Russia and its partners(Iran, Syria, Yemen, UAE, Turkey) have sold almost $1 billion in stolen Ukrainian grain on a global black market 2/

The overall damages, however, for the Ukrainian farmers are estimate at 80 times more - almost 80 billion USD. See the report by the Kyiv School of Economics, joint with the World Bank 3/

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Since 2022, Russia has directly shipped at least 4 million tons of grain and other produce from occupied Ukraine to international markets, generating revenue of $800 million

The total value of grain taken by Russia from occupied territories could be as high as $6.4 billion 4/

The illicit grain trade is a part of the Kremlin-sponsored patronage system, effectively allowing "the war to feed itself"

Russian forces either compel Ukrainian farmers to sell crops at below-market prices or steal them outright, sometimes at gunpoint, to fuel this black market 5/

A complex network of clients benefits from Moscow's wartime patronage system, including a Russian shipyard equipping the invasion, a company affiliated with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, and traders operating through the United Arab Emirates 6/

Three bulk vessels exporting large volumes of illicit grain are owned through corporate entities by Russia's state-run United Shipbuilding Corp., which also produces warships used against Ukraine 7/

The world should sanction these vessels in the very same way the oil tankers in the Russian shadow fleet are designated . But agriculture transporting ships are exempt from sanctions, even though they are moving stolen goods internationally. 8/

Russia, on the other hand, is shooting ships with grain from Ukraine in international waters of the Black Sea

Turkey, Egypt, Israel, and Lebanon have taken steps to halt shipments of stolen Ukrainian grain after diplomatic pressure from Kyiv 9/

Iran and Syria, as Russian allies, continue to accept stolen grain shipments, with Iran reportedly receiving barley from Crimea at a 34% discount from market prices 10/

The grain theft operation involves increasingly complex evasion tactics, such as transferring grain to Russia and mixing it with legitimate products before resale on international markets 11/

Source; Xbuff.ly/4emTeOh