Thread by @joni_askola

1/16 Imperial russia is racing against time in Ukraine: Budanov's recent remarks reveal a degree of realistic optimism

2/16 Budanov recently participated in the 20th annual Yalta Europe Strategy conference and conducted an interview, both of which featured intriguing insights regarding the war and russia's situation.

3/16 Budanov expresses significant concern over north korean supplies to russia, asserting that north korea is by far the largest military supplier. The volumes provided by north korea is unparalleled.

4/16 Budanov believes that russia intends to wrap up the war by the end of 2025 or early 2026, aiming for a victory. He notes that russia will encounter considerable economic difficulties beginning in the summer of 2025.

5/16 "If russia fails to achieve victory by that time, it will forfeit its long-term goal of being viewed as a superpower over the next 30 years," Budanov stated, citing russian intelligence sources.

6/16 russia expects "all their problems will begin in the summer of 2025," as financial, economic, and socio-political factors converge. Although it is managing the worsening situation, russia acknowledges that the already severe economic situation is deepening.

7/16 The summer of 2025 is anticipated to be a challenging time for russia, prompting the country to expedite various processes to lessen these impacts and manage the crisis, with the goal of concluding the war on favorable terms.

8/16 russia is increasingly challenged by inadequate army recruitment. "By the summer of 2025, they will face a crucial decision: announce another mobilization or scale back hostilities, both of which could significantly impact their military strategy."

9/16 Budanov also believes that war fatigue in russia is gradually becoming evident, as the conflict has already affected a substantial portion of the russian population.

10/16 russia's severe labor shortage, coupled with rising public spending and sanctions, has resulted in high inflation and a 19% key interest rate, both of which will significantly harm the economy and reduce investments. russia's key interest rate was at only 7,5% in June 2023

11/16 As stated by Budanov, recruitment is becoming increasingly difficult for russia, which must continue raising salaries and signing bonuses to attract enough personnel for its war efforts. A new mobilization might be needed in the future.

12/16 russia has been losing equipment faster than it can produce it during the war. Although its vast Soviet-era stocks have helped, these will run out in the next 1-2 years, forcing russia to buy more abroad or scale back operations.

13/16 All of this clarifies why Putin is so determined to push forward on the eastern front at any cost. Ukraine must endure this period, as neither side is prepared to negotiate, and russia's situation is expected to deteriorate after 2025.

14/16 Budanov's statement confirms that russia is running out of time and cannot sustain the war in the long term. Currently, russia is attempting to establish facts on the ground, but the Ukrainian defense is proving to be much more capable than Moscow had anticipated.

15/16 Additionally, the Kursk operation has significantly worsened the situation for russia, more than many realize. It shattered the belief among many in russia that the country is a superpower and demonstrated that Ukraine can still make advances despite its limited resources.

16/16 Sources:




kyivindependent.com/budanov-discus…

https://x.com/revishvilig/status/1835237329193046482

https://x.com/Tendar/status/1835560859038269559

kyivindependent.com/budanov-russia…
pravda.com.ua/news/2024/09/1…