1/16 Imperial russia is racing against time in Ukraine: Budanov's recent remarks reveal a degree of realistic optimism
2/16 Budanov recently participated in the 20th annual Yalta Europe Strategy conference and conducted an interview, both of which featured intriguing insights regarding the war and russia's situation.
3/16 Budanov expresses significant concern over north korean supplies to russia, asserting that north korea is by far the largest military supplier. The volumes provided by north korea is unparalleled.
4/16 Budanov believes that russia intends to wrap up the war by the end of 2025 or early 2026, aiming for a victory. He notes that russia will encounter considerable economic difficulties beginning in the summer of 2025.
5/16 "If russia fails to achieve victory by that time, it will forfeit its long-term goal of being viewed as a superpower over the next 30 years," Budanov stated, citing russian intelligence sources.
6/16 russia expects "all their problems will begin in the summer of 2025," as financial, economic, and socio-political factors converge. Although it is managing the worsening situation, russia acknowledges that the already severe economic situation is deepening.
7/16 The summer of 2025 is anticipated to be a challenging time for russia, prompting the country to expedite various processes to lessen these impacts and manage the crisis, with the goal of concluding the war on favorable terms.
8/16 russia is increasingly challenged by inadequate army recruitment. "By the summer of 2025, they will face a crucial decision: announce another mobilization or scale back hostilities, both of which could significantly impact their military strategy."
9/16 Budanov also believes that war fatigue in russia is gradually becoming evident, as the conflict has already affected a substantial portion of the russian population.
10/16 russia's severe labor shortage, coupled with rising public spending and sanctions, has resulted in high inflation and a 19% key interest rate, both of which will significantly harm the economy and reduce investments. russia's key interest rate was at only 7,5% in June 2023
11/16 As stated by Budanov, recruitment is becoming increasingly difficult for russia, which must continue raising salaries and signing bonuses to attract enough personnel for its war efforts. A new mobilization might be needed in the future.
12/16 russia has been losing equipment faster than it can produce it during the war. Although its vast Soviet-era stocks have helped, these will run out in the next 1-2 years, forcing russia to buy more abroad or scale back operations.
13/16 All of this clarifies why Putin is so determined to push forward on the eastern front at any cost. Ukraine must endure this period, as neither side is prepared to negotiate, and russia's situation is expected to deteriorate after 2025.
14/16 Budanov's statement confirms that russia is running out of time and cannot sustain the war in the long term. Currently, russia is attempting to establish facts on the ground, but the Ukrainian defense is proving to be much more capable than Moscow had anticipated.
15/16 Additionally, the Kursk operation has significantly worsened the situation for russia, more than many realize. It shattered the belief among many in russia that the country is a superpower and demonstrated that Ukraine can still make advances despite its limited resources.
1/12 Hungary Oblast: russia and its owner, china, have effectively become indirect members of the EU due to their ownership of Hungary Oblast, which sold its sovereignty at a very low price. Orban and his fascist clique will be marked in history as failed traitors.
2/12 The US elections are on the horizon, and Europe must take notice, as the United States is very likely to at least partially disengage from both Ukraine and Europe, regardless of who wins the election.
3/12 The US is increasingly redirecting its attention toward Asia, but it may also find itself drawn into a conflict in the Middle East in the future. As a result, Europe is likely to receive diminishing attention from the US.
1/10 Another massive embarrassment for russia! Their air defense has failed yet again, and the explosion of all the ammunition depots in Toropets was likely due to munitions being stored outside, right next to the depots. What a classic example of russian unprofessionalism!
2/10 Ukraine frequently targets russian ammunition depots, and while these are significant accomplishments, they usually don't have a major impact on the war by themselves. It's the cumulative effect of these strikes that truly makes a difference.
3/10 Last night, Ukraine targeted a big depot area in Torovets, resulting in the detonation of tens of thousands of tons of explosive materials in one of its most successful attacks to date. This is significant, even by russia's standards.
1/7 Stop the conspiracy theories about this: a person who is not sane enough to be accepted into Ukraine's International Legion would not be hired by anyone to assassinate a former president
2/7 Ryan Routh, the man accused of plotting to assassinate Trump, was clearly unstable. His contradictory political beliefs, combined with his support for Ukraine, have led conspiracy theorists to fabricate narratives blaming Ukraine for his actions.
3/7 These theories are completely illogical, and those disseminating them know it. For Ukraine, killing or trying to kill Trump would be a catastrophe and the fastest way to lose Western support.
1/12 Israel's pager attack strikes hezbollah at a time when it is already significantly weakened. Why did Israel do this? How will hezbollah respond?
2/12 Officials reported that hundreds of pagers detonated simultaneously throughout Lebanon and in parts of Syria, resulting in multiple fatalities, including members of the militant group hezbollah, and injuring the iranian ambassador.
3/12 hezbollah has issued a statement accusing Israel of responsibility for the pager explosions, asserting that Israel will receive "its fair punishment."
1/11 The lack of shame knows no limits: The IMF is facilitating russia's invasion of Ukraine by dispatching a mission to russia to support its struggling economy. What an unprincipled institution!
2/11 The IMF is set to send its first official mission to russia since the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The IMF has been attempting to maintain a low profile regarding this contentious mission.
3/11 This month’s visit, led by Jacques Miniane, signifies a notable shift in the IMF’s stance toward russia. Previously, Western nations urged the IMF to abandon mission plans in 2022 and 2023, but now the IMF is reengaging with Moscow despite the ongoing war in Ukraine.
1/7 During his presidency, Trump did not launch any new wars, but neither did Biden, making this Trump talking point useless
2/7 Trump supporters continue to cite the fact that he did not initiate any new wars as a reason to vote for him; however, Biden, with Harris as his VP, also did not start any new wars, making this argument useless.
3/7 Trump has become increasingly isolationist since losing the 2020 election. He has surrounded himself with isolationists, some of whom genuinely adhere to this misguided ideology, while others may be foreign agents.