THREAD: Israel's unprecedented and highly sophisticated security operation today in which almost 3000 people have been injured so far, is by all means a massive blow to Hizbullah. This is all more so the case given that Hizbullah has always credited its performance in the July War, in part, to its primitive telecom network which relied on pagers and a fiber optic "internal" line. By neutralising Israel's technological superiority with "simplicity", to borrow Nasrallah's terms, Hizbullah prevented Israel from disrupting its command and control system. 1/
Today’s attack effectively negates this advantage. The question is: why did Israel choose to prematurely play this card outside the context of all-out war, where a disruption of this magnitude could have changed the course of the war. Israel surely knows that Hizbullah will now review and amend its entire communication protocols, which suggests that Israel has other aims which could well fall short of full war. 2/
The operation appears to have been designed as a major spectacle potentially serving dual purposes: to demoralise Hizbullah’s cadres and instil uncertainty while acting as a coercive deterrent aimed at altering their force positioning along the border. 3/
Israel appears to have developed a unique military-security paradigm in its war on Lebanon: its daily assassination campaign via drone warfare blurs the line between prolonged security measures and traditional warfare. Today’s attack consolidates this novel paradigm which acts more as a substitute for all-out conventional war. At least for the time being. 4/
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