THREAD: While A Trump victory will likely change little in U.S. policy toward Gaza and Lebanon, at least in the short term, it will signal a shift in approach—from a neocon liberal administration that uses deceit and diplomatic cover to distance itself from its support for Israel’s campaigns against Hizbullah and Hamas, to a far-right administration which will behave in a more unapologetically militaristic way. In other words, such a shift would sharpen the battle lines, replacing diplomatic pretense with more direct confrontation. 1/ While Nasrallah previously labeled Trump “among the worst, if not the worst” U.S. president following his 2020 defeat over the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, it was ultimately Biden who actively assisted Israel in targeting Nasrallah. With this and Harris’ genocidal record in mind, Hizbullah’s new Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, reiterated today that the outcome of the U.S. elections “holds no value” for the movement, emphasizing that Hizbullah relies on its battlefield strength rather than on U.S. political outcomes or ceasefire negotiations. 2/

THREAD: Israel's campaign of extensive destruction across southern Lebanon - flattening over 37 towns and obliterating 40,000 homes - may appear decisive through the lens of linear, tactical thinking. Similarly, the targeting of Hizbullah's political and military leadership could be seen as markers of victory. Yet many in media and policy circles mistakenly assume this level of destruction and loss signifies Hizbullah's weakening, the Resistance Axis's disarray, and the imminent defeat of both. This misconception arises from two key issues: 1/ First, there is a fundamental disagreement over the appropriate metrics for assessing power, victory and defeat. Israel’s linear, tactical and destructive approach to progress focuses on quantifiable gains, while Hizbullah and the Resistance Axis follow a non-linear approach to progress, grounded in a cyclical, long-term strategy that prioritizes resilience and sustained impact. Secondly, even judged by the linear standards favoured by Hizbullah's critics, the evidence suggests it is Israel that is failing to achieve its objectives and facing major setbacks, not the other way around. 2/

THREAD: Israel’s sweeping evacuation orders and strikes across Baalbek today are yet more evidence of its systematic targeting of Lebanon’s Shia community, reinforcing concerns of an intentional ethnic cleansing campaign. This is not confined to Baalbek; it’s part of a broader strategy that combines direct ethnic cleansing with ethnic cleansing by proxy, as Israel reportedly employs right-wing Christian groups and militias to enforce Shia expulsion—and repeated secondary displacement—on its behalf. 1/ Israel’s actions go far beyond issuing evacuation orders or targeting overwhelmingly Shia areas in Lebanon, like the South and Beirut’s Dahyeh. Entire historic cities like Baalbek and Tyre have faced both evacuation orders and direct strikes, while entire villages along the border have been leveled through controlled demolitions to ensure they remain uninhabitable, preventing any chance of return—a core element of ethnic cleansing. Residential buildings housing displaced Shia communities across various regions of Lebanon are also under direct attack, underscoring the expansive and deliberate nature of this campaign. 2/

THREAD: Israel has committed a significant number of war crimes in Lebanon over the past 72 hours, facilitated by U.S. political cover. This was demonstrated through Amos Hochstein’s visit to Beirut yesterday and Antony Blinken’s trip to Israel today, once again showing how the U.S. wields diplomacy as a weapon of mass destruction. 1/ Hochstein’s proposal has been roundly condemned as a "surrender deal," offering Lebanon de facto Israeli occupation, by tightening the noose on Hizbullah and effectively placing the country under indirect Israeli control, in exchange for an ultimately unsustainable cease-fire. 2/

THREAD: Tomorrow, October 17, will mark one month since Israel launched its war on Lebanon, that was set off with the mass casualty terrorist attack on over 4000 pager users, and escalating to the carpet bombing of southern Lebanon, culminating in the assassination of Hezbollah's entire military leadership and Seyyid Hasan Nasrallah. Instead of causing the anticipated collapse of the movement, these very harsh blows which occurred in quick succession, only seem to have invigorated it, and demonstrated its anti-fragility. What was intended to weaken Hizbullah has spectacularly backfired, highlighting how Israel fundamentally misread the group and, even after 42 years of close surveillance, still clearly does not understand its enemy. 1/ Had any other state in the region, including Israel, been confronted with a similar scenario, it would have likely spiralled into chaos, civil war, and succumbed to invasion. Far from collapsing like many states would, Hizbullah’s asymmetric advantage enabled it not only to reconstitute itself organisationally and maintain its command, control, and operational continuity but also to inflict substantial losses on the Israeli military. 2/

THREAD: US and Israeli officials are already discussing plans for “the day after" or a “post-Hizbullah phase” in Lebanon, as if the outcome of Israel's campaign of state terrorism against the country is a foregone conclusion. Reports on the US’ “regime change” efforts effectively signal a push toward de-democratization—replacing one of the region’s most democratic state with another authoritarian US client regime. 1/ While this may seem like an effort to gain political capital by projecting false confidence in Hizbullah's weakness, the Resistance’s strong battlefield performance, preventing any Israeli incursions along 4 different axes for nearly two weeks, suggests it's more likely a US-Israeli attempt to compensate for the lack of military success on the ground. 2/

THREAD: Israel's actions in Lebanon do not embody the Dahyeh Doctrine but rather, the Gaza Doctrine, as starkly demonstrated by Netanyahu’s ultimatum yesterday to “free” Lebanon from Hizbullah or “face destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza.” The key distinction between the two doctrines lies in the Gaza Doctrine's genocidal and ethnic cleansing aims, which are now beginning to manifest in Lebanon. But unlike Gaza, Lebanon's deep social and political divisions are being exploited by Israel to fuel internal conflict and use it as an additional strategic tool. 1/ Given the Sunni community's sympathy towards Gaza and the Resistance, Israel is focusing on right-wing Christian political leaders and primarily Christian host communities, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Shia are seeking refuge. Rather than the unrealistic goal of defeating Hizbullah internally, Netanyahu’s rhetoric is aimed at bogging down Hizbullah in a protracted internal war, provoking right-wing Christians and others to take up arms and fuelling broader anti-Shia violence. 2/

THREAD: The US and other Western powers' designation of Hizbullah as a terrorist organization has effectively empowered Israel to escalate its campaign of state terrorism in Lebanon, shifting from the Dahyeh Doctrine to the far more extreme Gaza Doctrine—a new model of warfare that is unprecedented in its brutality 1/ The blanket proscription of Hizbullah, including its civilian and political branches, has created a direct conflict between domestic and international law. By criminalizing these non-military elements, it provides Israel with cover to blur the critical distinction in international law between combatants and non-combatants, enabling it to act with impunity. 2/

THREAD: Some preliminary thoughts on this new phase in the war focusing on key developments: 1) Israel’s act of state terrorism which killed Seyyid Hasan Nasrallah and its impact on Hizbullah, 2) The impact of Israel’s elimination of Hizbullah’s military command, 3) The current transition phase and Hizbullah’s strategic recalibration 1/ It’s evident that Israel, with the full backing and partnership of the US, aimed to dismantle Hizbullah in one decisive strike. This effort began with the assassination of Fuad Shukr in late July, followed by the pager attacks, but it was Nasrallah’s killing that served as the key trigger intended to spark Hizbullah’s expected implosion. While Israel's push for a regional war seems evident, it's still uncertain whether the US is fully prepared to commit to such a course 2/

THREAD: We have to stop calling Israel’s current military-security-terrorist campaign against Lebanon an escalation and start calling it a war. Not total war without ceilings yet, but war, nonetheless. Israel’s “shock and awe” offensive pursues short term tactical gains to make up for its strategic losses, while Hizbullah is aiming for longer term strategic objectives despite some tactical losses it has endured over the past week. 1/ Israel's "fleeing forward" strategy comes with several unrealistic objectives, none of which are likely to be achieved:
-pushing Hizbullah to retreat from the border and end its support front with Gaza
-expel and displace people from South Lebanon to potentially use as a bargaining chip to return settlers to the North
-demoralise and break the resolve of Resistance fighters and the Resistance community
-significantly degrade Hizbullah’s military capabilities 2/

THREAD: Israel's unprecedented and highly sophisticated security operation today in which almost 3000 people have been injured so far, is by all means a massive blow to Hizbullah. This is all more so the case given that Hizbullah has always credited its performance in the July War, in part, to its primitive telecom network which relied on pagers and a fiber optic "internal" line. By neutralising Israel's technological superiority with "simplicity", to borrow Nasrallah's terms, Hizbullah prevented Israel from disrupting its command and control system. 1/ Today’s attack effectively negates this advantage. The question is: why did Israel choose to prematurely play this card outside the context of all-out war, where a disruption of this magnitude could have changed the course of the war. Israel surely knows that Hizbullah will now review and amend its entire communication protocols, which suggests that Israel has other aims which could well fall short of full war. 2/

THREAD: Kamala Harris’ declaration yestday “I will always give Israel the ability to defend itself, in particular as it relates to Iran and any threat that Iran and its proxies pose to Israel” was indicative of a very sinister agenda that Israel has also been consistently promoting. 1/ The campaign to frame Iran as the ultimate mastermind behind or, at the very least, a sponsor of October 7 and of Hamas more generally, goes beyond the need to vilify Iran and cement its position as a primary adversary of the US. More significantly, by portraying Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other resistance groups in the West Bank as Iran’s proxies, the US and Israel are trying to achieve 3 aims that relate to Palestine specifically: 2/

THREAD: Western governments' unbridled backing of Israel's expansionist agenda in Gaza and the West Bank is not only profoundly unethical and unlawful—flagrantly defying their own legal counsel—but also remarkably self-defeating. Far from protecting Israel or ensuring its longevity, their unqualified support has instead ushered in a new, formidable resistance paradigm across the Middle East. 1/ Shielded by unwavering Western support, Israel's brazen re-invasion and destruction of the occupied West Bank, replicates the complete impunity it has enjoyed in Gaza. This Western-backed expansionism has confirmed to its enemies in the Resistance Axis—chiefly, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad—that Israel, poses an immediate existential threat, intent not merely on invading and occupying neighboring territories, but on colonizing their lands. 2/

THREAD: Yesterday's video released by Hizbullah showcasing its underground complex, the "Imad-4", signals its operational readiness to retaliate. This coincides with Israel's expected torpedoing of the cease-fire talks which were exclusively aimed at delaying or curbing Hizbullah and Iran's planned responses. 1/ Hizbullah's clandestine nature and its adherence to the doctrine of strategic surprise, makes its decision to reveal a portion of its sophisticated bunker network and some of its military capabilities especially significant. By offering this limited glimpse into one of several "Imad" compounds, Hizbullah appears to be sending a potent deterrent message to Israel to absorb its imminent retaliation without further escalation. 2/

THREAD: It seems that the potential retaliation by Iran and Hizbullah against Israel may hinge on the outcome of tomorrow's ceasefire talks in Doha. This connection has been indicated by multiple sources: Iran's UN envoy mentioned it last week, three Iranian officials conveyed this to Reuters yesterday, and today, Nabih Berri, the Lebanese parliament speaker and close Hizbullah ally, referred to the upcoming talks as "the last shot". 1/ However, given that Israel is more likely to scupper the talks, especially considering new demands it has reportedly added, and its longstanding aversion to a cease-fire, it's more probable that Iran and Hizbullah are merely engaging in a perfunctory exercise, ready to take action once these negotiations inevitably conclude without yielding any meaningful results. 2/

THREAD: Forecasting the nature of Iran and Hizbullah's potential retaliation is challenging. It's unclear whether they will opt for a high-impact joint operation or a staggered offensive with overarching strategic alignment, designed to produce a cumulative impact. 1/ Putting aside logistical and tactical considerations related to Israel’s reaction time, target selection, and so on, the type of response will also be dictated by their perception of whether or not the US is seen as willing to restrain Israel in the aftermath of the counter-strikes and its overall willingness to enter a broader war. 2/

THREAD: How might Hizbullah and the Resistance Axis respond to Israel's new targeted shock and awe campaign, or what Nasrallah has called the "new phase" of the war? 1/ 2/ An analysis of the possible retaliation will be shaped in large part by what the Axis believes Israel's aims are, and the extent of US support for these aims. In other words, whether Israel is simply trying to intimidate and coerce its enemies into submission with these very provocative assassinations, or if its trying to bait Hizbullah and Iran into a wider regional war with the aim of forcing the US to step in militarily. 2/

THREAD: It's highly unlikely Hizbullah was behind the Majdal Shams strike yesterday. This isn't just due to Hizbullah's unprecedented denial of responsibility for the attack, but stems from other factors as well. 1/ Since October 8, Hizbullah has refrained from targeting Israeli civilians, much less Syrian Druze. The strong support for the resistance movement among this community, which lives under Israeli occupation, makes it illogical for Hizbullah to risk striking in this vicinity. 2/

THREAD: Today appears to mark the beginning of a new stage in the war, evidenced by significant escalations from both the Houthis and Hizbullah, demonstrating a combination of horizontal and vertical escalation strategies and a further consolidation of the Resistance Axis' "unity of arenas" strategy. 1/ This joint escalation isn't solely a response to Israeli airstrikes against South Lebanon last night, which caused civilian casualties, but also appears to be a strategic response to Netanyahu's attempts to torpedo the cease-fire talks ahead of his visit to the US next week. It also comes against the backdrop of Israel's shift to "phase 3" of its Gaza operations, which is characterised by an intensification of targeted assassinations and aerial bombardment, that has resulted in 7 massacres this week alone. 2/

THREAD: It's hard to deny that Israel's assassination of Hizbullah commanders over the past 9 months affects the organisation, as today's killing of senior commander, Abu Nehme, likely will. But viewed from a historical and developmental perspective, this long-standing policy has paradoxically only enhanced Hizbullah's capabilities, effectiveness and size 1/ The assassinations of Hamas' Yehya Ayyash in 1996, IJ's Fathi Shikaki in 1995, and Hizbullah's Imad Mughnieh in 2008, along with many others like them, has not only failed to weaken or slow down the growth of these organisations, but has had the opposite effect, as demonstrated by their military prowess and fast-growing number of fighters 2/

THREAD: While the likelihood of an Israeli offensive against Lebanon in the coming weeks remains uncertain, what's clearer is that Israel's threats of attack, coupled with US pledges of support, are part of a coordinated media strategy to pressure and intimidate Hizbullah 1/ The US and Israel hope that a planned scaling down to a less intense "phase 3" operation in Gaza will create a diplomatic "off-ramp" that encourages Hizbullah to stop it attacks. Media-channeled warnings aim to pressure Hizbullah towards embracing this diplomatic "solution" 2/