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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Sep 18 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
For some reason, all of these academics (including several Americans) signed a letter in support of Brazilian efforts to suppress free speech.

Daron Acemoglu is among the signatories.
Image
Image
You can read the letter here:

I can only hope this is a hoax. I'm also a bit annoyed by Daron signing this so shortly after saying he didn't want to suppress free speech. If he really signed this, then his true beliefs are clear and despicable.portal.jota.info/wp-content/upl…
Not a hoax letter, but the signatures of each person don't seem to be dispositively verified:

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Sep 19
Are LLMs smart like humans are smart? Short🧵

If you give them a battery of tests built for LLMs or covering topics like U.S. History, you can end up with a model that is unidimensional, much like how human intelligence is: Image
I previously attempted to fit such a model and was unsuccessful because many LLMs are practically the same person, leading to a fitting failure.

These authors obviated that issue by pruning highly similar LLMs with DBSCAN and other means.

The result was a model that fits, when you have a bifactor solution, and not when you have a single-factor one or two non-general factors.

The result is, frankly, a bit cobbled together and hacky, but you have to live with that if you want a model that's even facially fine.
Read 8 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Sep 16
I have a pretty major update for one of my articles.

It has to do with Justice Jackson's comment that when Black newborns are delivered by Black doctors, they're much more likely to survive, justifying racially discriminatory admissions.

We now know she was wrong🧵 Image
So if you don't recall, here's how Justice Jackson described the original study's findings.

She was wrong to describe it this way, because she mixed up percentage points with percentages, and she's referring to the uncontrolled rather than the fully-controlled effect. Image
After I saw her mention this, I looked into the study and found that its results all seemed to have p-values between 0.10 and 0.01.

Or in other words, the study was p-hacked. Image
Read 14 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Sep 12
More than thirty countries globally have automatic non-filing options for taxpayers.

Many people claim these help to make the tax system more fair by taking out tax hassle and guesswork.

But German data suggests they might make the tax system less progressive🧵Image
The first thing to note is that the lower the income, the greater the odds of not filing, with almost 90% of those earning just €10,000 choosing not to file.

At an income of about €50,000, the relationship asymptotes at roughly 30% non-filers. Image
Another thing to note is that, consistent with the tax system being progressive in general, lower-income individuals are entitled to refunds more often. Image
Read 10 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Sep 11
I've explained once before that group and individual IQs can have divergent meanings.

People still insist that Sub-Saharan African countries succeed more than predicted by their national IQs, but I don't see it.

So let's estimate what their IQs should be given their success:
Image
The simple way to do this is to remove Sub-Saharan Africa from a regression of log(GDP PPP Per Capita), for which I'm using 2019 to avoid the pandemic and get closer to the sampling years.

Like this, we get:

Measured IQ: 71.96
Predicted IQ: 74.86
Predicted, sans SSA: 76.78
In other words, no big difference.

But, you might say, aren't logs doing the work? Well, they're appropriate here, so no, but without them, we get:

Predicted IQ: 78.29
Predicted, sans SSA: 82.47
Read 12 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Sep 8
Many people think that government fertility policy has no effects on fertility.

You don't need to be a genius to see the year France instituted means testing, reducing benefits and resulting in lowered fertility. Image
If you can't see it, here's a labeled chart. Image
That reform affected top earners. Other reforms have affected the same strata, and some have affected bottom earners.

For example, when Germany reduced welfare-takers' incomes by 18%, fertility fell by 6.8%: Image
Read 7 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
Sep 8
OK, thread: Your quality of life metrics are just GDP.

You value final consumption expenditures per capita?

You value GDP.
Image
What if you're one of those guys who really values manufacturing?

You value GDP. Image
You value Actual Individual Consumption?

You value GDP. Image
Read 12 tweets

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