Post

More from @sumlenny

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny

Aug 29

Why does the @POTUS administration effectively support Russia in this war? It’s not because they like Putin (like Trump does). The reason is different (but makes no difference in the result)
1) Biden’s team thinks in categories of red lines. This means, a superpower has core… /1

…interests. Everything outside of them is just spare change. But core interests may not be violated. If they do, the very existence of the superpower is threatened, and it goes into survival rage mode.
2) Biden’s delusional team thinks, Ukraine is not a core thing for Russia /2

They falsely believe, Ukraine war for Russia is something like Vietnam war for the U.S. Russia has its interests, but as soon as Russia starts suffering too high price, it will pull back. Because Ukraine is not Russia’s core interest. But IF the Ukrainians hit Russia’s core… /3

Read 9 tweets

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny

Aug 11

THREAD Putin has removed Army's Gerasimov from command over Kursk operation, installed FSB's Portnikov. This is great. Let me explain:
1) Russian system of power always set on the secret police over the Army. The Secret Police was over-financed over-empowered for centuries /1

1.1) In 16th century, Moscovy's tyrant Ivan the Terrible has created Moscovy's first Secret Police: "Oprichnina" (literally: the special ones), letting them arrest, torture, kill, rape any opposition, and seize their property. Ivan's opponents were destroyed. But in 1570... /2

1.2) ...Ivan the Terrible sent the Oprichnikis against free people of Revel (Tallinn), in a war of conquest. The Oprichnikis were beaten. In 1571, the Oprichnikis were called to fight back Tatar Devlet-Girei khan. They have not even come to the battle (see Kadyrovtsy today) /3

Read 11 tweets

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny

Aug 7

Some thoughts on Ukraine's #Kursk offensive (THREAD):
1) The operation is a clear surprise for the Russian. It demonstrates Ukraine's capacity to prepare a large-scale attack in secrecy. White House was not informed for a reason
2) First time Ukraine's mech brigade is involved /1

2) This is a clear sign of Ukraine's upscaling and confidence that Russia has no resources to "escalate back". Putin's "it is just a provocation" reaction confirms this assessment;
3) Ukraine reaches several goals. First, Russia's need to pull troops from Pokrovsk turns urgent /2

3) Practically, Ukraine does the same with Russia what Russia did with Kharkiv-Vovchansk offensive earlier, but way more effectively. Now Russia needs to think twice if they keep troops concentration against Pokrovsk;
4) Ukraine's citizens get motivation. After 2 years of... /3

Read 8 tweets

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny

Jul 15

A fact which many ignore: Kyiv was a capital city already in the 9th century at least, with Ukrainian trident being used as a coat of arms by Volodymyr the Great in the same century. This makes Ukrainians one of the oldest nations in Europe with the same capital and emblem.

More on history of Ukraine's Trident:
istpravda.com.ua/articles/2010/…

Ukraine's SpecOps forces use a two-spikes-version of the trident, attributed to Svyatoslav the Brave (938 - 972), a Kyiv prince whose bravery and gallantry were legendary. Before raiding his enemies, he always sent them a message: "Idu na vy", literally "on my way to you".

Read 4 tweets

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny

Jun 21

Germany's intelligence agency BfV says, islamist terrorists had entered Germany under cover of Ukrainian passports, pretending to be Ukrainian refugees. These terrorists can attack soft targets amid the EURO football cup. Most probably, this is a Russia-run operation. THREAD: /1

Amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia has seized thousands of authentic Ukrainian passports. The seizure was so massive, even Russian private persons were selling Ukrainian passports online stressing that this helps to enter the EU. Of course, the GRU used them too. /2

It is clear, that Russian intelligence services have infiltrated a lot of agents into the EU under cover of "Russian oppositional refugees" but also "Ukrainian refugees". It is also clear that Russian intelligence actively uses fake flag attacks, including "islamist attacks". /3

Read 6 tweets

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

@sumlenny

Jun 14

The Ukraine-US security agreement is not a mutual defense agreement (see the title). It's a security agreement, and as such, it creates very broad fundament for cooperation in all possible fields: from intelligence to weapons development. Let me elaborate in this short THREAD: /1

The mutual defense mechanisms are clearly linked to the NATO future of Ukraine, as reaffirmed in the Preamble. The same Preamble stresses the goal of restoration of Ukraine's full control of its territory and a right for self-defence in accordance to the Art. 51 UN Charter. /2

The aims of the Agreement themselves are not of the mutual defense character though, but linked to a broad number of cooperation areas. It foresees extensive exchange of intelligence information, cooperation in area of army modernisation, arms development, reforms, training... /3

Read 5 tweets

Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @sumlenny

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Send Email!