Thread by @Prune602

Quick Update on this week’s OFZ results.

I will still plan to do a more formal update later, but I’m in a weird spot of hoping I get more (better) data vs, just telling you what I’ve got. In addition there was something else interesting that came out today 👀

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1833931973569474908

And I don’t really want to sit on that news, because it’s also VERY interesting. So I thought I’d maybe give you a little preview of both?

Here is rough draft of what happened in terms of placements today. They’ve now officially passed 50% of their goal for the year.

Which isn’t really a good sign when you’ve only got 1 auction day left in Q3 AND most of the money went to repaying previous debts.

So…yeah, not great.

But remember how we found out last week that they NEEDED all this money in order to fund the deficit?

What ever they don’t place they have to get from somewhere. And part of their current plans to fund the deficit ALREADY includes taking 1.3 Trillion from the NWF.

So here’s the interesting thing a report came out from the Gaidar Institute. (I plan on giving more detail later)

The report does a lot of handwaving to say that everything will be fine! While also giving some pretty devastating news.

In short, due to reasons, they think the Russian Federal Deficit will be 4.3 Trillion Rubles in 2024

Remember the current planned budget has a deficit of 2.12 Trillion Rubles.

THIS WOULD DOUBLE THAT.

And they’re already struggling to fund the deficit now. I’m not sure if they’ll be able to cover this deficit with the NWF.

🍿 So…what do they do next?

Remember, Gaidar Institute is making a PREDICTION. It could be better or much much worse.

But we’re getting into the range of “wobble” where things could go very bad very quickly. Russia is running out of options.