A fun little detail of Eurovision history. This graphs shows all Eurovision/National Final/Junior Eurovision entries ever, connected by their common songwriters. You see the small grey "tail" at the top left, only thinly connected to the rest of the network? (1/6)
Well, it turns out it represents Turkish entries from Eurovision/the long lost Turkish national finals! (2/6)
The thing is, the Turkish Eurovision world didn't have any songwriter overlap with the rest of Europe. For most of Eurovision history this "tail" would have been an island, completely disconnected from the big network - but one man, Olcayto Ahmet Tuğsuz, changed that (3/6)
You see, Olcayto had his Eurovision hay-day in the 70's and 80's, writing several entries for Turkish national finals, even making it to the Eurovision stage a few times. But his connection to the main network would come many years later (4/6)
That connection would come in 2016, via the unlikely nation of San Marino. As a part of the "I Didn't Know" songwriting team, Olcayto bridged the connection between the Turkish and big European network, via cowriter Nektarios Tyrakis and "Say Na Na Na" writer Mary Applegate (5/6)
It just goes to show how weird the world of Eurovision can be, that an entire island of Turkish writers was only incidentally connected to the big family because of a singing dentist/Jeopardy host with a dream. Hope you enjoyed reading this brief history thread! (6/6)
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The results of my "What If?" 2020 prediction survey are here. After receiving eurofans assessments of all 2020 entries' jury and televote potentials, these results were fed to a model simulating the contest 100000 times. These are the average results of the simulations
While this methodology sounds simple, it managed to produce more accurate results than the odds for the 2024 contest. Thus I feel like these results serve as an accurate representation of our "collective wisdom" on the 2020 contest
The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey 2025 - Participants results thread 🧵
In this thread I will reveal the results of the survey, including the average participation chance and most likely artists to represent each country, all based on your predictions. I will be going from least to most likely participating country
Overall, you predict an average of 36.46 countries participating. You have 32 countries with a chance over 80%, 10 under 20% and 11 somewhere in the middle. For 44/53 countries, you have submitted enough artist predictions for me to compile an overall top
The results of The Big #Eurovision Prediction Survey, Post-Rehearsal Speed Edition are finally here! Who will qualify from the semis? Who will win the whole contest? How will each country do? All these questions and more answered through your collective wisdom. Take a look: 🧵📊
A quick note on the model: I collected 106 sets of predictions of each country's jury and televote potential. Based on your estimates, I simulated the contest 100000 times, taking into account voting patterns and running order. This thread contains the results of the simulations
SEMI 1 QUALIFICATION CHANCES:
Here are the qualification rates for semi final 1. As you can see, 🇭🇷🇺🇦🇱🇹🇫🇮🇮🇪🇱🇺🇵🇹🇵🇱 seem to have solid chances, while 🇸🇮🇨🇾🇷🇸🇦🇺 are more up in air. Meanwhile 🇦🇿, and 🇲🇩🇮🇸 in particular seem to have a tougher fight ahead of them
The results of "The Big Eurovision Prediction Survey" of 2024 are finally here!
Based on the 248 responses submitted, 100000 simulations have been run in a statistical model simulating the 2024 as closely as possible. Here are the results! 🧵
SEMI FINAL 1:
Throughout the 100000 simulations, these were the qualification rates for each country. As you can see, the semi appears quite open, with 12 entries qualifying close to or more than 50% of the time. Our most typical 10 qualifiers are:
🇭🇷🇺🇦🇱🇹🇫🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇵🇱🇷🇸🇨🇾🇵🇹
SEMI FINAL 2:
Throughout the 100000 simulations, these were the qualification rates for each country. As you can see, this semi seems more closed off, with clear qualifier and non-qualifier groups. Our most typical 10 qualifiers are:
🇳🇱🇨🇭🇬🇷🇳🇴🇧🇪🇦🇲🇦🇹🇪🇪🇮🇱🇬🇪
Ciao! 🇮🇹
Being the inspiration for #Eurovision, #Sanremo is so much more than a national final! This year, 30 artists are competing to make their mark on the iconic contest. Who will win the right to represent Italy? It's time for my #Sanremo2024 songwriter deep dive 🕸️📊🧵
Emma - Apnea
Having won Sanremo 2012 and representing Italy at Eurovision 2014 Emma Marrone is no stranger to the big stage. This time, she's collaborating with Julien Boverod (Brividi), Paolo Antonacci (Tango) and Davide Petrella, who she also worked with for "Ogni volta è cosi"
La Sad - Autodistruttivo
Pop punk band La Sad is making their Sanremo debut with the help of familiar forces. Fans will remember Riccardo Zanotti from Pinguini Tattici Nucleari and their infectious "Ringo Starr". He also worke with Marco Paganelli for Leo Gassmann's "Terzo cuore"
Halløj! 🇩🇰
Eight artist are in the running to represent Denmark on (almost) home turf in Malmø! A lot of familiar faces can be spotted in the credits. It's time for my #DMGP2024 songwriter deep dive! 🕸️📊🧵
#Eurovision #DMGP #Eurovision2024
Saba - Sand
In addition to Danish indie star Pil, "Sand" was written by Swedes Jonas Thander and Melanie Webbe. This is their first collab, but they have previously written entries like ""I've Been Waiting for This Night", "Bigger Than Us", "Move", and "Love Is Forever"
Aura Dione - Mirrorball of Hope
Danish pop star Aura Dione makes her DMGP debut with the help of Michelle Leonard and Alexander Brown. While the former is know for Lenna's "Slingshot" and German fan favourite "Wear Your Love", the latter had a song in DMGP14