Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 19, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A week ago, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces launched a large counter-offensive to take back the territory they lost in #Kursk oblast.

At the same time, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces tried to trap these russian forces, launching their own offensive.

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This week has seen many fightings in the western part of ukrainian presence of Kursk oblast. Russian offensive had initial successes, and broke through the defenses of the 103rd territorial defense brigade south of Korenevo, taking some prisonners.
Two main units were engaged in the counter-offensive : VDV of the 51st Airborne Regiment and Marines of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

In two days, they took back Snagost and small villages near the Seym river. Ukrainian 501st Marine batallion of 36th Marine had to withdraw. Image
The days after, VDV launched new attacks toward Liubimovka, while 155th Marines managed to enter Gordeevka, Veznapnoe, Apanasovka and Obukhovka.

Here is a video of the assault on Liubimovka and a BMD of the VDV getting hit by a FPV drone.

Ukrainian command was unable to keep its positions, which were in fact strategic. The Glushkovo district (on the west) was nearly encircled (only pontoon bridges on the Seym river were allowing supply).

Russian army amassed thousands of men there to avoid losing it.
Ukrainian command decided to mobilize 21st mecanized brigade, 225th Assault Batallion and 95th Air Assault brigade to launch an attack directly on Glushkovo.

Here is a good thread by @Danspiun including all the geolocated footages of this area.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian assault on Veseloe south of Glushkovo. They may be a little more in the north, but I don"t have proofs for now. Image
Today, we spotted this ground drone attacking the western flank of this attack. The use of unmanned systems like this one allows Ukraine to keep its men safe.
During this assault, we saw Swedish CV 9040 and STRV 122 (Leopard 2). Some CV 9040 and STRV 122 were lost during the assault.



Russia tried to counter-attack multiple times there but failed to take back territory lost. The Glushkovo pocket is now at a high risk of being encircled.

I said multiple times russia has to hold there, because if they loose the pocket, it will be very difficult to take it back.



On the other side of Kursk frontline, Russian forces took back Borki. Sudja is still far from Russian forces.

The ukrainian presence in Kursk has decreased recently, however, russian army is still on a difficult position on the western part. Image
Today images from ©Planet show a lot of bombing east of the current russian presence and some recent russia attacks (we can see the scars in the corn fields + the roads used by Ukraine on the border.
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I'm now going to update Pokrovsk fortifications since today sentinel-2 does not have any cloud.

You can follow @atummundi (where i also write) and follow me on my LinkedIn () linkedin.com/in/cl%C3%A9men…
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More from @clement_molin

Sep 4
For only 3 weeks, russian 🇷🇺 airforce launched 1 500 airstrikes between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, more than the previous monthly count.

Up to 40% of all russian airstrikes are happening in Pokrovsk in preparation for a larger offensive which may soon happen.

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I've never documented that much airstrikes in this area since I'm counting them. I started on june 11th, counting may and until june 11th.

From july 11th to august 11th, I mapped 1 400 airstrikes in 4 weeks, from august 11th to september 3, I mapped additional 1 500 airstrikes. Image
This graph from @M0nstas shows the large increase in the use of airstrikes "bombs".

From 1 000 a month in 2024 to an average of 3 000 to 5 000 a month, especially in april with more than 5 000.

This month of august, 4 400 ! I estimate ~1 800 are from Pokrovsk, 40% ! Image
Read 20 tweets
Aug 29
Some interesting new findings 🇺🇦🇷🇺 :

-Around 36 airstrikes just behind Kramatorsk
-Work ongoing for the prolongment of "New Donbass Line" to Sumy oblast
-Trench work : on the 1st line of New Donbass line (2nd and 3rd ditch) + parallel ditch.
-Airstrikes, old and new ditch

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Burned down area around Velika Novosilka, captured in late january by russian forces. Image
A lot of FAB impacts on treelines and around in Sumy oblast. Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 29
En Hongrie 🇭🇺, le pion de Moscou 🇷🇺 dans la tourmente

En pleine crise diplomatique avec Kyiv 🇺🇦 et Varsovie 🇵🇱, Orban fait aussi face à une importante défiance interne, menée par Peter Magyar

La Hongrie, entre affaires de corruption, noyautage et répression

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J'ai passé 6 mois en Erasmus 🇪🇺 en Hongrie. De manière générale, j'ai été frappé par ce côté très revanchard de la population hongroise envers le traité de Trianon il y a plus de 100 ans.

A part à Budapest, seule ville plus progressiste, et encore, la gauche n'existe presque pas Image
La droite et l'extrême droite forment environ 70% du paysage politique hongrois.

Le leader actuel est Viktor Orban, réélu premier ministre depuis 2010, son principal opposant est un ancien allié, Péter Magyar. Image
Read 22 tweets
Aug 27
Russian 🇷🇺 airforce launched 700 NEW airstrikes near Pokrovsk 🇺🇦 in 2 weeks, with more than 80% in the Pokrovsk-Dobropilla direction.

To sustain its offensives operations, Moscow also launched 800 strikes at Lyman and Siversk and 2 800 at Sumy !

🧵THREAD🧵1/19 ⬇️Image
1- Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka

Since may, I'm mapping most of russian airstrikes betwee, the two key cities of Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka.

The frontline is 50km long and I mapped around 3 800 airstrikes there in 4 months ! Image
Here, you can find 3 different colors.

I've used red for may to june 11th. I also use red for non dated airstrikes elsewhere (Sumy, Lyman, Siversk).

Orange is for june 11th to july 11th, blue from july 11th to august 11th and finally yellow, just bellow. Image
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Read 19 tweets
Aug 26
Quelles solutions pour l'Arménie 🇦🇲 ?

Comme ce tweet fait réagir, je vous propose un retour historique, contextuel, et actuel sur la situation de l'Arménie.

Seule, isolée et oubliée, l'Arménie a les cartes en mains pour son futur, si elle choisit la paix.

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D'abord, l'aspect géographique :

🇦🇲Arménie : 29 743 km², 2,97 millions d'habitants, PIB de 24 milliards USD.
🇦🇿Azerbaïdjan : 86 600 km², 10.11 millions d'habitants, PIB de 72,36 milliards USD.
🇬🇪Géorgie : 69 700 km², 3,91 millions, PIB de 35,35 milliards USD. Image
L'Arménie est le plus petit, le moins peuplé et le plus pauvre des 3 Etats du Caucase, sans accès à la mer, sans ressources naturelles.

L'Azerbaïdjan est 3 fois plus grand, 3.4 fois plus peuplé et 3 fois plus riche que l'Arménie, qui ne dépasse que pour le PIB par habitants. Image
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Read 26 tweets
Aug 25
Du Mali 🇲🇱 au Soudan 🇸🇩, le Sahel décomposé

Sur les 6 Etats Sahéliens, 5 sont en Etat de guerre, dont 3 contrôlant moins de la moitié de leur territoire national.

Rébellion de l'Azawad, groupes terroristes et guerre soudanaise, la région en pleine implosion.

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Le Sahel se résume généralement à 6 nations principales, la Mauritanie, le Mali, le Burkina Faso, le Niger, le Tchad et le Soudan.

Le plus stable actuellement est la Mauritanie, suivie par le Tchad (l'insurrection djihadiste ne touche que le sud-ouest, au bord du lac Tchad). Image
Au Soudan 🇸🇩, une guerre civile oppose depuis le 15 avril 2023 deux "armées", les Forces de Soutien Rapide, groupe paramilitaire rebelle dirigé par Hemetti et composé des arabes du Darfour et l'Armée Soudanaise régulière, dirigée par Burhan et composée des arabes du Nil + alliés. Image
Read 24 tweets

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