Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 19, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A week ago, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces launched a large counter-offensive to take back the territory they lost in #Kursk oblast.

At the same time, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces tried to trap these russian forces, launching their own offensive.

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This week has seen many fightings in the western part of ukrainian presence of Kursk oblast. Russian offensive had initial successes, and broke through the defenses of the 103rd territorial defense brigade south of Korenevo, taking some prisonners.
Two main units were engaged in the counter-offensive : VDV of the 51st Airborne Regiment and Marines of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

In two days, they took back Snagost and small villages near the Seym river. Ukrainian 501st Marine batallion of 36th Marine had to withdraw. Image
The days after, VDV launched new attacks toward Liubimovka, while 155th Marines managed to enter Gordeevka, Veznapnoe, Apanasovka and Obukhovka.

Here is a video of the assault on Liubimovka and a BMD of the VDV getting hit by a FPV drone.

Ukrainian command was unable to keep its positions, which were in fact strategic. The Glushkovo district (on the west) was nearly encircled (only pontoon bridges on the Seym river were allowing supply).

Russian army amassed thousands of men there to avoid losing it.
Ukrainian command decided to mobilize 21st mecanized brigade, 225th Assault Batallion and 95th Air Assault brigade to launch an attack directly on Glushkovo.

Here is a good thread by @Danspiun including all the geolocated footages of this area.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian assault on Veseloe south of Glushkovo. They may be a little more in the north, but I don"t have proofs for now. Image
Today, we spotted this ground drone attacking the western flank of this attack. The use of unmanned systems like this one allows Ukraine to keep its men safe.
During this assault, we saw Swedish CV 9040 and STRV 122 (Leopard 2). Some CV 9040 and STRV 122 were lost during the assault.



Russia tried to counter-attack multiple times there but failed to take back territory lost. The Glushkovo pocket is now at a high risk of being encircled.

I said multiple times russia has to hold there, because if they loose the pocket, it will be very difficult to take it back.



On the other side of Kursk frontline, Russian forces took back Borki. Sudja is still far from Russian forces.

The ukrainian presence in Kursk has decreased recently, however, russian army is still on a difficult position on the western part. Image
Today images from ©Planet show a lot of bombing east of the current russian presence and some recent russia attacks (we can see the scars in the corn fields + the roads used by Ukraine on the border.
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I'm now going to update Pokrovsk fortifications since today sentinel-2 does not have any cloud.

You can follow @atummundi (where i also write) and follow me on my LinkedIn () linkedin.com/in/cl%C3%A9men…
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More from @clement_molin

May 3
L'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 poursuit la fortification d'au moins 45 villes de différentes tailles pour préparer la défense sur le long terme.

Parmi les grandes villes, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Soumy ou Tchernihiv ont été renforcées.

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Commençons au nord, oblast de Tchernihiv. (rouge = tranchées et surtout fossés anti-chats, blanc = barbelés et dents de dragons)

Défenses de Hrodnia + 3 lignes en amont
Défenses en construction à Snovsk et Koriukivka
Défenses de Ripky et Tchernihiv
Défenses de Novhorod-Siverskyï Image
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Oblast de Soumy :

Défenses circulaires de Chotska
Défenses circulaires de Hloukhiv
Défenses circulaires de Putyl et Buryn
Défenses circulaires de Konotop (anciennes) Image
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Read 10 tweets
May 1
I agree with what is being said in this thread. Russia 🇷🇺 has been unable for now to reach Dobropilla, which is a critical town to take before attacking Kramatorsk.

However, recent successes in the Siversk and Kostiantynivka directions may unblock the situation

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There is one good reason for the failure to advance to Dobropilla this after the august 2024 breakthrough and it's mainly about terrain and logistics.

Assaulting from the east has been difficult because of a well known "kill zone" and well established ukrainian defenses. Image
Instead, Russia had been assaulting westward of Pokrovsk since the start of the year.

The main reason is to unblock the agglomeration's hub position. They had lately some successes and continue to push further. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30
Le début d'année 2026 n'est pas très bon pour l'armée russe 🇷🇺 qui accumule les revers.

Si la traditionnelle offensive de printemps n'a pas encore commencé, les forces russes ont laissé beaucoup de temps aux ukrainiens pour se fortifier.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
La progression russe n'est pas vraiment le facteur le plus important, puisqu'elle suit les saisons, augmentation au printemps et baisse à l'automne.

Mais cette année, on remarque quand même des chiffres faibles pour les 4 derniers mois et pour 15 000 attaques sur 3 mois ! Image
L'année dernière, l'armée russe avait beaucoup de territoires peu défendus, sans grands obstacles et sans grandes villes à prendre, résultats des petites percées de 2024.

Cela lui donnait la possibilité d'avancer continuellement. Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 29
This month of April alone, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched 450 (!) successful strikes on Russia 🇷🇺 and occupied territories.

Among those are part of the nearly 600 mid-range strikes with FP-1 and FP-2 drones into occupied territories since the year started.

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On this second map, you can see all those mid-range strikes into occupied territories since the year started (most are after march 2026).

In total, around 600 geolocated strikes have been confirmed, hitting various targets in the region. Image
Among those strikes, we now have 34 air-defense systems hit (which does not mean destroyed), 29 radars, or 32 trucks, mainly by long range FPV. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 27
3 jours après une triple offensive du JNIM et du FLA contre l'armée malienne 🇲🇱 et l'Afrika Corps russe 🇷🇺, le point sur la situation :

Le Front de Libération de l'Azawad a levé ce matin son drapeau sur Kidal, marquant une retentissante victoire.

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Alors que les rebelles touaregs du Front de Libération de l'Azawad (FLA) levaient leur drapeau sur Kidal, russe de l'AC et une partie des maliens (FAMA) étaient escortés par le groupe terroriste JNIM (groupe de soutien à l'Islam et aux Musulmans) en dehors de la ville.
Le 14 novembre 2023, deux semaines après le départ de la MONUSCO de Kidal, les FAMA et Wagner aveint relancé la guerre contre les touareg (malgré les accords de paix d'Alger), s'emparant de la ville.

Depuis, les FAMA et Wagner maintenaient une série d'avant postes dans le nord. Image
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Read 27 tweets
Apr 26
La Russie 🇷🇺 c'est vraiment le pire allié possible à avoir...

Quand tout va bien ils sont là, montrant une fausse protection, mais quand vous en avez besoin, ils sont nulle part.

Arménie 2020, Syrie 2024, Venezuela 2026, Iran 2026, Hongrie 2026 et désormais le Sahel. ⬇️ Image
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Ce que beaucoup de leaders ne comprennent pas, c'est que Moscou se fiche de protéger un homme, ils protègent leur influence (parfois même en négociant directement avec leur ennemi, comme avec l'Azerbaïdjan, HTS ou le JNIM).
En Afrique, l'influence russe est en réalité assez faible. Ils tentent surtout de contrer l'influence occidentale.

Les investissements en Afrique ne sont pas russes, ils sont chinois, émiratis, turcs... les russes sont là que pour la propagande et une apparente sécurité.
Read 7 tweets

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