Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 19, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A week ago, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces launched a large counter-offensive to take back the territory they lost in #Kursk oblast.

At the same time, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces tried to trap these russian forces, launching their own offensive.

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This week has seen many fightings in the western part of ukrainian presence of Kursk oblast. Russian offensive had initial successes, and broke through the defenses of the 103rd territorial defense brigade south of Korenevo, taking some prisonners.
Two main units were engaged in the counter-offensive : VDV of the 51st Airborne Regiment and Marines of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

In two days, they took back Snagost and small villages near the Seym river. Ukrainian 501st Marine batallion of 36th Marine had to withdraw. Image
The days after, VDV launched new attacks toward Liubimovka, while 155th Marines managed to enter Gordeevka, Veznapnoe, Apanasovka and Obukhovka.

Here is a video of the assault on Liubimovka and a BMD of the VDV getting hit by a FPV drone.

Ukrainian command was unable to keep its positions, which were in fact strategic. The Glushkovo district (on the west) was nearly encircled (only pontoon bridges on the Seym river were allowing supply).

Russian army amassed thousands of men there to avoid losing it.
Ukrainian command decided to mobilize 21st mecanized brigade, 225th Assault Batallion and 95th Air Assault brigade to launch an attack directly on Glushkovo.

Here is a good thread by @Danspiun including all the geolocated footages of this area.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian assault on Veseloe south of Glushkovo. They may be a little more in the north, but I don"t have proofs for now. Image
Today, we spotted this ground drone attacking the western flank of this attack. The use of unmanned systems like this one allows Ukraine to keep its men safe.
During this assault, we saw Swedish CV 9040 and STRV 122 (Leopard 2). Some CV 9040 and STRV 122 were lost during the assault.



Russia tried to counter-attack multiple times there but failed to take back territory lost. The Glushkovo pocket is now at a high risk of being encircled.

I said multiple times russia has to hold there, because if they loose the pocket, it will be very difficult to take it back.



On the other side of Kursk frontline, Russian forces took back Borki. Sudja is still far from Russian forces.

The ukrainian presence in Kursk has decreased recently, however, russian army is still on a difficult position on the western part. Image
Today images from ©Planet show a lot of bombing east of the current russian presence and some recent russia attacks (we can see the scars in the corn fields + the roads used by Ukraine on the border.
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I'm now going to update Pokrovsk fortifications since today sentinel-2 does not have any cloud.

You can follow @atummundi (where i also write) and follow me on my LinkedIn () linkedin.com/in/cl%C3%A9men…
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More from @clement_molin

Aug 13
Between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, I mapped 3 200 russian 🇷🇺 airstrikes in 3 months, including 1 400 new ones from july 11th to august 11th.

Russian airforce is launching massive strikes at ukrainian 🇺🇦position, supporting a large offensive.

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In this single satellite picture taken north of Pokrovsk, we can see no less than 50 airstrikes, with more than half hitting treelines and buildings where ukrainian 🇺🇦soldiers are hidding.

All those happened since june 11th. Image
I started mapping those airstrikes near Pokrovsk in late june when I noticed large strikes against ukrainian fortifications.

Since then, I put dots for every airstrike, with different color each month. Here is may to june 11th 2025, 1 100 airstrikes. Image
Read 18 tweets
Aug 12
« La situation de l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 à Dobropilla n'est pas mauvaise, elle est catastrophique »

Après une pression intense exercée pendant 2 ans, l'armée russe 🇷🇺 est parvenue à infiltrer en profondeur le front ukrainien dans l'oblast de Donetsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Légende :  Rouge, contrôle russe avant le 1er janvier 2025 Vert, progression russe depuis le 1er janvier 2025 Bleu, contrôle ukrainien, bleu foncé, zones urbaines. Jaune, fortifications ukrainiennes.  Diamètre du secteur entouré, 20km.
Hier, le site ukrainien @Deepstate_UA a publié une actualisation surprise de sa carte en fin de journée, montrant une progression soudaine d'environ 10km à l'est de Dobropilla, cité minière de 20 000 habitants qui devait servir de nouveau HUB pour l'armée ukrainienne dans l'est. Image
L'équipe de Deepstate nous avait habitué à la prudence, notamment après des reproches du gouvernement contre celle-ci.

Hier, elle a voulu alerter sur un danger imminent. Plusieurs soldats et analystes ukrainiens ont pris la parole sur twitter, soutenant cette affirmation. Image
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Read 24 tweets
Aug 11
‼️Russian 🇷🇺 breakthrough has been confirmed, ukrainian "New Donbass Line" bypassed in the most vulnerable point.

Russian assault platoons are rushing behind ukrainian lines. They can now turn west and threathen Dobropilla or continue North and Kramatorsk will be in danger.Image
Map from @Deepstate_UA which confirmed rumours...

The situation is not bad, it is catastrophic. Image
To explain, russian forces used hundreds of motorcycles in the last few weeks to slowly gain positions behind ukrainian troops.

They progress very fast behing the lines, establish positions and wait for reinforcements. It is very fast and very efficient....
Read 13 tweets
Aug 9
Négociations sur l'Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇷🇺, capitulation, retrait russe, gel du front, échange de territoires, à quoi s'attendre ?

Que peuvent espérer les deux belligérants ? Qui est en position de force ? Quel rôle pour Trump et l'Europe ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️ Image
Dans cette guerre, deux doctrines s'opposent, le réalisme et l'idéalisme.

L'idealisme, c'est le droit, le juste et la vérité. Le réalisme c'est la puissance, les leviers de pression et le rapport de force.

Je suis réaliste, même si on se doit d'évoquer les deux théories. Image
Que peut espérer l'Ukraine 🇺🇦?

Beaucoup de soutiens de l'Ukraine sont idéalistes. Ils croient au droit, à la justice et à la victoire.

Il y a cependant un fossé entre ce qui est espéré et ce qui est de l'ordre du réel. Image
Read 25 tweets
Aug 7
Pour la première fois depuis la chute d'Avdiivka, plusieurs villes ukrainiennes 🇺🇦 sont menacées par les récentes progressions russes 🇷🇺

J'ai comptabilisé 9 villes qui sont soit sur le front, soit menacées d'encerclement, dont Koupiansk, Siversk et Pokrovsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/14⬇️ Image
1- Vovchansk

Dans l'oblast de Kharkiv, au nord-est de la 2ème ville d'Ukraine, cette petite ville disputée depuis 15 mois est menacée.

L'armée russe contrôle presque la partie nord de la ville (derrière la rivière) et débute une incursion sur la partie sud. carte @UAControlMap Image
Cependant, gardons à l'esprit que cette ville de 18 000 habitants est entièrement détruite après 15 mois de bataille d'attrition à moins de 10km de la frontière russe.

Si elle tombe, la route vers Shevchenkove pourrait s'ouvrir. Image
Read 14 tweets
Aug 6
One year from today, ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces launched their ambitious « Kursk offensive ».

It failed to achieve significant results despite strong objectives. Russian 🇷🇺 army managed to hold the ground and push back later the ukrainians from Kursk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
August 6th 2024, after a long and silent preparation, numerous separate bataillons of Ukraine's best brigades smashed into the border and broke through russian lines.

Really fast, they faced strong resistance. Image
To have a good vision of the operation, I'm using the best source possible, @LovelyLad_.

He worked on hours of footages, talked with many ukrainian soldiers and commanders.

Here is his work :
Read 25 tweets

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