Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 19, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A week ago, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces launched a large counter-offensive to take back the territory they lost in #Kursk oblast.

At the same time, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces tried to trap these russian forces, launching their own offensive.

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This week has seen many fightings in the western part of ukrainian presence of Kursk oblast. Russian offensive had initial successes, and broke through the defenses of the 103rd territorial defense brigade south of Korenevo, taking some prisonners.
Two main units were engaged in the counter-offensive : VDV of the 51st Airborne Regiment and Marines of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

In two days, they took back Snagost and small villages near the Seym river. Ukrainian 501st Marine batallion of 36th Marine had to withdraw. Image
The days after, VDV launched new attacks toward Liubimovka, while 155th Marines managed to enter Gordeevka, Veznapnoe, Apanasovka and Obukhovka.

Here is a video of the assault on Liubimovka and a BMD of the VDV getting hit by a FPV drone.

Ukrainian command was unable to keep its positions, which were in fact strategic. The Glushkovo district (on the west) was nearly encircled (only pontoon bridges on the Seym river were allowing supply).

Russian army amassed thousands of men there to avoid losing it.
Ukrainian command decided to mobilize 21st mecanized brigade, 225th Assault Batallion and 95th Air Assault brigade to launch an attack directly on Glushkovo.

Here is a good thread by @Danspiun including all the geolocated footages of this area.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian assault on Veseloe south of Glushkovo. They may be a little more in the north, but I don"t have proofs for now. Image
Today, we spotted this ground drone attacking the western flank of this attack. The use of unmanned systems like this one allows Ukraine to keep its men safe.
During this assault, we saw Swedish CV 9040 and STRV 122 (Leopard 2). Some CV 9040 and STRV 122 were lost during the assault.



Russia tried to counter-attack multiple times there but failed to take back territory lost. The Glushkovo pocket is now at a high risk of being encircled.

I said multiple times russia has to hold there, because if they loose the pocket, it will be very difficult to take it back.



On the other side of Kursk frontline, Russian forces took back Borki. Sudja is still far from Russian forces.

The ukrainian presence in Kursk has decreased recently, however, russian army is still on a difficult position on the western part. Image
Today images from ©Planet show a lot of bombing east of the current russian presence and some recent russia attacks (we can see the scars in the corn fields + the roads used by Ukraine on the border.
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I'm now going to update Pokrovsk fortifications since today sentinel-2 does not have any cloud.

You can follow @atummundi (where i also write) and follow me on my LinkedIn () linkedin.com/in/cl%C3%A9men…
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More from @clement_molin

Apr 12
Peter Magyar peut-il battre Viktor Orban à la tête de la Hongrie 🇭🇺 depuis 16 ans ?

Avec une participation déjà record de 74.23 % à 17h, le scrutin apparait fortement indécis. Les résultats arriveront entre 19h et minuit.

Suivez les avec moi en direct ici :

🧵THREAD🧵1/X⬇️ Image
Le système électoral hongrois est composé de 199 députés, dont 93 élus à la proportionnelle (favorable à Magyar et au Tisza).

Les 106 autres sièges sont élus dans les circonscriptions locales, redécoupées en faveur d'Orban.

2/X Image
En 2022, Le Fidesz d'Orban l'avait largement emporté dans la grande majorité des circonscriptions du pays, à part à Budapest, Pecs, Szeged et dans les élections proportionnelles.

3/X Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 9
Zelensky is right on this one, Ukraine 🇺🇦 has no interest in giving away the remaining part of Donbas

This area is the most fortified of Ukraine, there are some of the last big cities, 200 000 inhabitants and losing it would open the path for Kharkiv or Dnipro.

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Here is a map showing all the barbed wire protecting cities, towns and villages from infiltration. Going though will be costly, and this is in Donbas. Image
The main city is Kramatorsk, but there are also additionnal cities such as Sloviansk or Dobropilla.

These cities are highly fortified, but there is also heavy industry, power plants and mines. Ukraine has no interest leaving the area. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 8
L'opération israélo-américaine en Iran est-elle un échec ?

❌Le régime n'a pas été renversé
❌Le détroit d'Ormuz a été fermé
❌Les programmes balistiques et nucléaires n'ont pas été détruits
✅L'Iran a été affaiblie
✅Le volet militaire s'est plutôt bien déroulé

🧵THREAD🧵⬇️ Image
🔸L'objectif américain : le flou

L'objectif initial, martelé à de nombreuses reprises par Trump était de renverser le régime en détruisant les gardiens de la révolution et les moyens répressifs pour permettre une prise de pouvoir par la population.

Deux objectifs secondaires suivaient, celui de détruire le programme nucléaire et le programme balistique de l'Iran.

Pourtant, après le début de la guerre, le flou entretenu par un président américain utilisant ses propres déclarations pour parier de l'argent sur les marchés est resté total. L'objectif de rouvrir le détroit d'Ormuz ne figurait pas parmi les objectifs initiaux, et pourtant, c'était celui dominant dès la 2ème semaine des opérations.Image
🔸La stratégie iranienne :

L'Iran, qui s'y préparait depuis des décennies était très bien préparée (qui l'eut cru !). Frapper Israël n'avait pas d'intérêt, défendre l'espace aérien était impossible.

L'Iran a plutôt fait tout pour répandre la guerre le plus possible, en touchant avant tout les moyens de production économique (pétrole, gaz, tourisme, espaces aériens, industries) du Golfe (dont le détroit d'Ormuz) et les bases américaines.

Beaucoup annonçaient la mort de l'axe de résistance, bien que durement frappé, celui-ci est toujours là : les milices chiites d'Irak ont été très actives contre les bases américaines dans le pays, le Hezbollah a rejoins la guerre contre Israël et les Houthis du Yémen ont suffisamment menacés d'entrer en guerre, de fermer le détroit de Bab el Mandeb et de frapper les ports saoudiens occidentaux pour empêcher les Etats du Golfe d'entrer dans la guerre contre l'Iran.

En parallèle, l'Iran a bien camouflé ses lanceurs de missiles et de drones, permettant un lancement régulier (100 drones et 50 missiles par jours). L'enjeu est désormais de déterrer les milliers de lanceurs coincés dans les bases souterraines pour remplacer ceux perdus en surface.Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 8
Overnight, Ukraine 🇺🇦 conducted yet another long range strike targeting russian 🇷🇺 assets in southern occupied Ukraine (total = + 400 strikes now !)

For you, I gathered here 20 different databases to better understand the russian invasion of Ukraine :

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🔸Weekly russian progression since october 2023

Based on @Pouletvolant3 weekly updates, I gathered all those since Russia took the initiative, per week.

You can see two years and half of russian offensive in Ukraine, with a recent decrease. Image
🔸Monthly russian progression since october 2023

Based on @Pouletvolant3 monthly updates, I gathered all those since Russia took the initiative, per month.

You can see a traditionnal decrease in winter, with this one more important than usual. Image
Read 24 tweets
Apr 6
For the first time, in march 2026, Ukraine 🇺🇦 launched more long range drones into russian 🇷🇺 territory than Russia launched drones into Ukraine

Last night, Ukraine launched at least 283 drones south, mainly targeting the Novorossiisk port and hit a frigate.

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After Primorsk and Ust-Luga oil terminals in Leningrad and Karelia oblast have been hit 5 days in a row last week, Ukraine attacked the Novorossiisk oil terminal.

A picture widely shared last night showed the port ablase, with intense anti-air activity. Image
For months and even years, Ukraine's indigenous long range drone and missile program has been improving.

Ukraine first launched 1 000 drones into Russia is august 2024, 3 000 in July 2025 and 7 000 in march 2026 ! Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 4
100 km of kill zone, let's dive inside one of Ukraine's 🇺🇦 best defensive line

The Verkhnya Tersa line -with only 18 crossing over 100km- is one of the strongest and best prepared fortified line in Ukraine. Here is a detailed analysis :

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First "New Donbas Line" style prepared in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk region, this line is covered north of Novomykolaivka by 3 other lines, while only one before Novomykolaivka.

South of it, this line is the first defensive line, only protected by older line and barbed wire.Image
Here is a video from few months ago of the central part of this line, the one protecting Novomykolaivka.

This area of around 25 km is the most ready on the 100 km of that particular line. North of Novomykolaivka, barbed wire has not been installed, the frontline is too far.
Read 18 tweets

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