Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 19, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A week ago, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces launched a large counter-offensive to take back the territory they lost in #Kursk oblast.

At the same time, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces tried to trap these russian forces, launching their own offensive.

🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️ Image
This week has seen many fightings in the western part of ukrainian presence of Kursk oblast. Russian offensive had initial successes, and broke through the defenses of the 103rd territorial defense brigade south of Korenevo, taking some prisonners.
Two main units were engaged in the counter-offensive : VDV of the 51st Airborne Regiment and Marines of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

In two days, they took back Snagost and small villages near the Seym river. Ukrainian 501st Marine batallion of 36th Marine had to withdraw. Image
The days after, VDV launched new attacks toward Liubimovka, while 155th Marines managed to enter Gordeevka, Veznapnoe, Apanasovka and Obukhovka.

Here is a video of the assault on Liubimovka and a BMD of the VDV getting hit by a FPV drone.

Ukrainian command was unable to keep its positions, which were in fact strategic. The Glushkovo district (on the west) was nearly encircled (only pontoon bridges on the Seym river were allowing supply).

Russian army amassed thousands of men there to avoid losing it.
Ukrainian command decided to mobilize 21st mecanized brigade, 225th Assault Batallion and 95th Air Assault brigade to launch an attack directly on Glushkovo.

Here is a good thread by @Danspiun including all the geolocated footages of this area.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian assault on Veseloe south of Glushkovo. They may be a little more in the north, but I don"t have proofs for now. Image
Today, we spotted this ground drone attacking the western flank of this attack. The use of unmanned systems like this one allows Ukraine to keep its men safe.
During this assault, we saw Swedish CV 9040 and STRV 122 (Leopard 2). Some CV 9040 and STRV 122 were lost during the assault.



Russia tried to counter-attack multiple times there but failed to take back territory lost. The Glushkovo pocket is now at a high risk of being encircled.

I said multiple times russia has to hold there, because if they loose the pocket, it will be very difficult to take it back.



On the other side of Kursk frontline, Russian forces took back Borki. Sudja is still far from Russian forces.

The ukrainian presence in Kursk has decreased recently, however, russian army is still on a difficult position on the western part. Image
Today images from ©Planet show a lot of bombing east of the current russian presence and some recent russia attacks (we can see the scars in the corn fields + the roads used by Ukraine on the border.
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I'm now going to update Pokrovsk fortifications since today sentinel-2 does not have any cloud.

You can follow @atummundi (where i also write) and follow me on my LinkedIn () linkedin.com/in/cl%C3%A9men…
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More from @clement_molin

Feb 21
EXCLUSIVE : Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces managed to push back russian 🇷🇺 artillery in the Pokrovsk'e direction

Meanwhile, Russia is pushing very hard on the Kramatorsk/Sloviansk front as well as in Pokrovsk and Hulialpole.

I mapped 3 000 additional shell impacts :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
After few weeks of counter-attacks, we now have more confirmations of the scale, the means engaged and the progress of ukrainian forces.

For the first time, they entered a village which was firmly under russian control, Ternove, 8km south of the river.

This means Ukraine probably regained control of most of the 2022 defensive line in this sector (obsolete, but the ditch, the barbed wire and the dragon teeths still offer good defense).

We do not have all the confirmations, but with artilley strikes impact, we can nearly be sure Image
Read 20 tweets
Feb 20
The world demographics 👨‍👩‍👦‍👦 are slowly collapsing📉

All continents are concerned, even Africa, with the first countries now bellow 2 children per woman.

Which states are affected more by the birth rate crisis?

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
For the first time, we now have at least 3 african countries under the replacement level.

In Morocco, there are 1.97 children per woman, in South Africa 1.7 children per woman and in Tunisia 1.45 children per woman, less than in France or the USA. Others are slowly following. Image
For example, Egypt, the 3rd most populated state of Africa is set to be under 2 children per woman before 2030.

Others are following, while most are still above 3 today, most were above 6 10 to 15 years ago !
Read 17 tweets
Feb 17
Le chiffre de 200km2 repris par l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 circule, provenant de l'ISW et relayé par l'AFP.

⚠️Pourtant, ce chiffre est probablement exagéré et et manque de précisions. L'ISW est connu pour ses imprécisions, reprises par l'AFP et d'autres.

🧵THREAD🧵1/9 ⬇️ Image
En janvier dernier, alors que nous avions décelé une baisse de la progression russe (données de @Pouletvolant3), l'AFP titrait le contraire : parlant d'une augmentation x2 de la progression russe. Image
Image
En réalité, cette confiance aveugle dans l'ISW, sans vérification directe a joué un tour à l'AFP.

Le mois de janvier n'avait pas vu une augmentation x2 de la progression russe, à moins que l'on ne considère la vidéo d'un soldat russe, seul, avec un drapeau (mort ou vivant) comme une preuve suffisante de contrôle.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 16
L'Ethiopie 🇪🇹 se rapproche de plus en plus de la guerre civile généralisée

La mobilisation massive de l'armée éthiopienne dans le nord, son retrait de larges zones de l'Amhara⚫️, vers le Tigré 🟡 et les tensions frontalières font craindre un conflit majeur.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24⬇️ Image
L'Ethiopie, 2ème pays le plus peuplé d'Afrique est très régulièrement surnommée la "Yougoslavie d'Afrique", car elle est en réalité une fédération ethnique.

La lutte de pouvoir qui opposent ces ethnies provoque des conflits meurtriers. Image
Ces dernières semaines et en particulier ces derniers jours, l'armée éthiopienne (ENDF) a déplacé des dizaines de milliers d'hommes vers le nord du pays.

La région visée, le Tigré était déjà au cœur d'un conflit meurtrier entre 2020 et 2022 qui avait fait 600 000 morts.
Read 24 tweets
Feb 15
Each day that passes gives Ukraine 🇺🇦 more time to prepare new fortifications that will ultimately slow down russian 🇷🇺 offensives.

The recent russian setbacks allowed Ukraine to largely reinforce its fortification strategy.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️ Image
Ukrainian fortifications are improving. The main defensive lines (yellow) are meant to protect Ukraine's rear.

Between these main lines, we can find multiple smaller ditches lines are barbed wire lines. This strategy is cutting the frontline : Image
We now have multiple squares and rectangles between main and secondary lines.

The frontline is literraly cut in pieces, the black ones are the finished/expected ones and the grey the larger ones, behind, that will be later cut in between. Image
Read 16 tweets
Feb 14
Contre-attaque victorieuse pour l'Ukraine 🇺🇦

Après plusieurs semaines de contre-attaques, l'armée ukrainienne a repris le contrôle de larges territoires disputés dont ~12 villages dans l'est de l'oblast de Zaporizhia.

L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a été repoussée.

🧵THREAD🧵1/18 ⬇️Image
Profitant de la suspension de Starling à l'armée russe (qui permettait de faire voler les drones russes et de communiquer) et de Telegram, l'armée ukrainienne a lancé une série de contre-attaques locales dans le secteur de Ternuvate et Pokrovsk'e, à l'est de Zaporizhia. Image
Les ukrainiens ont utilisé d'importants moyens mécanisés, une première depuis plusieurs mois, profitant notamment des mauvaises conditions météorologiques et de la suspension de Starlink qui empêchent les drones de voler.

Ces assauts ont eu lieu à l'ouest du côté de Ternuvate. Image
Read 21 tweets

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