A week ago, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces launched a large counter-offensive to take back the territory they lost in #Kursk oblast.
At the same time, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces tried to trap these russian forces, launching their own offensive.
🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️
This week has seen many fightings in the western part of ukrainian presence of Kursk oblast. Russian offensive had initial successes, and broke through the defenses of the 103rd territorial defense brigade south of Korenevo, taking some prisonners.
Two main units were engaged in the counter-offensive : VDV of the 51st Airborne Regiment and Marines of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.
In two days, they took back Snagost and small villages near the Seym river. Ukrainian 501st Marine batallion of 36th Marine had to withdraw.
The days after, VDV launched new attacks toward Liubimovka, while 155th Marines managed to enter Gordeevka, Veznapnoe, Apanasovka and Obukhovka.
Here is a video of the assault on Liubimovka and a BMD of the VDV getting hit by a FPV drone.
Ukrainian command was unable to keep its positions, which were in fact strategic. The Glushkovo district (on the west) was nearly encircled (only pontoon bridges on the Seym river were allowing supply).
Russian army amassed thousands of men there to avoid losing it.
Ukrainian command decided to mobilize 21st mecanized brigade, 225th Assault Batallion and 95th Air Assault brigade to launch an attack directly on Glushkovo.
Here is a good thread by @Danspiun including all the geolocated footages of this area.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian assault on Veseloe south of Glushkovo. They may be a little more in the north, but I don"t have proofs for now.
Today, we spotted this ground drone attacking the western flank of this attack. The use of unmanned systems like this one allows Ukraine to keep its men safe.
During this assault, we saw Swedish CV 9040 and STRV 122 (Leopard 2). Some CV 9040 and STRV 122 were lost during the assault.
Russia tried to counter-attack multiple times there but failed to take back territory lost. The Glushkovo pocket is now at a high risk of being encircled.
I said multiple times russia has to hold there, because if they loose the pocket, it will be very difficult to take it back.
On the other side of Kursk frontline, Russian forces took back Borki. Sudja is still far from Russian forces.
The ukrainian presence in Kursk has decreased recently, however, russian army is still on a difficult position on the western part.
Recently, new videos emerged of Russian soldiers showing their flag far behind the frontline.
What is important about that is the aim of these operations : to show to the Russian command.
1/9 ⬇️
Russian flag videos are almost always the same. One or two Russian soldiers walk along the front line for weeks, evading Ukrainian detection.
Upon reaching the rear, they spend a day wandering through an entire village with their flag, while a drone overhead films them.
They are often not armed and will stay in the village for a long time, hidden in a basement, most of the time being found and captured/killed and sometimes go back to their lines.
These soldiers are not meant to disrupt Ukrainian rear but to create the illusion Russia controls an area.
In June 2026, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 8 284 airstrikes, of which I managed to map 49%
This airstrike campaign is at the heart of Russian offensive strategy and one of the biggest challenge to the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces.
🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
With artillery and drones, airstrikes are the third phase of the Russian strike campaign.
These unguided bombs—the FAB-250, -500, -1000, and -1500—are fitted with a UMPK guidance kit and dropped from more than 50 km behind the front line.
Here you can see the results of those :
The use of these guided bombs is steadily increasing, reaching a record high this month.
The accuracy of the FABs, which ranged from 10% to 30% last year (with "accuracy" defined as hitting something, such as a hedgerow, a village, or a forest), now stands at between 40% and 90%.
In June, Russia occupied 28 km2 and continued offensive operations in 7 directions out of 12. Russian forces took control of some neighbourhoods inside Kostiantynivka and advanced near Sloviansk.
My analysis :
🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️
Data above is from @Pouletvolant3 who has a strong regularity, using @Majakovsk73 data.
Below, Maps bases are from @M0nstas, with @Deepstate_UA and @AndrewPerpetua data.
The battle for Kostiantynivka has been ongoing for over 8 months.
Russian forces have been infiltrating the city's eastern, southern, and western sectors for several months; in recent weeks, they have—for the first time—managed to seize control of several neighborhoods, particularly in the west, and secure certain access routes to the city center.
Concurrently, Russian forces have launched a major propaganda campaign, showing flags across nearly the entire city and releasing videos showing their infiltration into most areas of Kostiantynivka.
Ukrainian forces maintain a presence throughout almost the entire city, although their hold on the southeastern and southwestern neighborhoods is increasingly threatened by the Russian advance into their rear. Fighting within the neighborhoods continues, and the Russian objective remains to seize control of the two roads supplying the city.
While the majority of Ukrainian assets—including drones and artillery—were evacuated in early June, the battle for the city (much like the earlier battle for Toretsk to the south) could drag on for weeks or even months until Russian forces achieve total control, enabling them to use the city as a hub for a northward push toward Drujkivka and Kramatorsk.
Overall, the battle for the city is lost, even though the Ukrainians still control more than a quarter of it—specifically the northeastern districts. It is important to understand that it is too early for Russian forces to use the city as a launch point for artillery or drone strikes; however, the initial drone units arriving in the coming weeks could intensify the threat to the northern supply routes leading to Drujkivka.
Since early May, Ukraine 🇺🇦 targeted nearly 800 Russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles on key logistical roads.
This strike campaign continue to be scaling, with strikes on railway infrastructure, bridges and the isolation of Crimea.
🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️
Here is the video of the ~784 trucks and vehicles hit by the Ukrainians (mainly videos from the drones, since we can't always tell the difference with ground footage).
Strikes target military trucks, fuel trucks, cargo trucks, cars, buses and trucks closer to the frontline.
In total, I counted 784 trucks and vehicles hit by Ukrainian drones since early May.
🔹The per day average since May is 13
🔹May average is 7 (214 trucks)
🔹June average is 19 (570 trucks)
🔸Last 10 days average is 29 (295)
Ukraine 🇺🇦 has now targeted around 500 russian 🇷🇺 trucks and vehicles during the last 48 days.
Mid-range strikes continue to expand across occupied territories, on roads, bridges and rear base. This continues to slow down russian offensive.
🧵THREAD🧵1/13 ⬇️
From tomorrow, I will be off for more than 1 week, which means there won't be any new map/airstrike/fortification/mid-range strikes update, apart from some small tweets.
I will however continue to follow the overall trends.
In total, I have 270 geolocated strikes on trucks and vehicles since january, most of those are from May to June.
The key Rostov-Crimea road remains the priority target, but roads in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson oblast have also been largely targeted.