Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 19, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A week ago, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces launched a large counter-offensive to take back the territory they lost in #Kursk oblast.

At the same time, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces tried to trap these russian forces, launching their own offensive.

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This week has seen many fightings in the western part of ukrainian presence of Kursk oblast. Russian offensive had initial successes, and broke through the defenses of the 103rd territorial defense brigade south of Korenevo, taking some prisonners.
Two main units were engaged in the counter-offensive : VDV of the 51st Airborne Regiment and Marines of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

In two days, they took back Snagost and small villages near the Seym river. Ukrainian 501st Marine batallion of 36th Marine had to withdraw. Image
The days after, VDV launched new attacks toward Liubimovka, while 155th Marines managed to enter Gordeevka, Veznapnoe, Apanasovka and Obukhovka.

Here is a video of the assault on Liubimovka and a BMD of the VDV getting hit by a FPV drone.

Ukrainian command was unable to keep its positions, which were in fact strategic. The Glushkovo district (on the west) was nearly encircled (only pontoon bridges on the Seym river were allowing supply).

Russian army amassed thousands of men there to avoid losing it.
Ukrainian command decided to mobilize 21st mecanized brigade, 225th Assault Batallion and 95th Air Assault brigade to launch an attack directly on Glushkovo.

Here is a good thread by @Danspiun including all the geolocated footages of this area.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian assault on Veseloe south of Glushkovo. They may be a little more in the north, but I don"t have proofs for now. Image
Today, we spotted this ground drone attacking the western flank of this attack. The use of unmanned systems like this one allows Ukraine to keep its men safe.
During this assault, we saw Swedish CV 9040 and STRV 122 (Leopard 2). Some CV 9040 and STRV 122 were lost during the assault.



Russia tried to counter-attack multiple times there but failed to take back territory lost. The Glushkovo pocket is now at a high risk of being encircled.

I said multiple times russia has to hold there, because if they loose the pocket, it will be very difficult to take it back.



On the other side of Kursk frontline, Russian forces took back Borki. Sudja is still far from Russian forces.

The ukrainian presence in Kursk has decreased recently, however, russian army is still on a difficult position on the western part. Image
Today images from ©Planet show a lot of bombing east of the current russian presence and some recent russia attacks (we can see the scars in the corn fields + the roads used by Ukraine on the border.
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I'm now going to update Pokrovsk fortifications since today sentinel-2 does not have any cloud.

You can follow @atummundi (where i also write) and follow me on my LinkedIn () linkedin.com/in/cl%C3%A9men…
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More from @clement_molin

Nov 10
Le Mali 🇲🇱 va-t-il s'effondrer face à l'offensive du JNIM ?

Le blocus de la capitale Bamako, ne fait que s'intensifier depuis plusieurs semaines.

La poussée vers le sud des djihadistes fait craindre un effondrement, même s'ils ne contrôlent aucune ville.

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Il y a 2 mois, l'une des meilleures source cartographique sur le Mali (@criticalthreats) a publié cette carte du blocus de Bamako et des principales villes du pays par le JNIM (groupe de soutien à l'Islam et aux musulmans, liés à Al Qaïda). Image
Depuis ma dernière actualisation cartographique à la fin de l'été, le JNIM a progressé, principalement vers le centre et le sud du pays.

Celui-ci opère désormais dans la majorité du pays, même s'il ne met pas en place de contrôle direct du territoire. Image
Read 17 tweets
Nov 8
L'armée russe 🇷🇺 a conquis la majeure partie de Pokrovsk, plus grande ville prise depuis mai 2023.

Les infiltrations russes au sud du chemin de fer ont été consolidées, l'armée russe pousse désormais vers la périphérie nord. Myrnohrad est quasi encerclée.

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En septembre 2024, l'armée russe arrivait pour la première fois aux portes est de la ville après la prise de Novohrodivka.

Il aura fallu un an et deux mois pour contourner les défenses de Pokrovsk par le sud puis le nord-est avant de prendre la ville. (carte de @Deepstate_UA) Image
Il est indéniable que la bataille pour la ville aura été centrale dans la stratégie défensive ukrainienne.

La progression de 40km à l'ouest d'Avdiivka a été stoppée aux portes de la ville. Il aura fallu un long contournement et beaucoup de temps pour parvenir à isoler la ville. Image
Read 15 tweets
Nov 5
I agree, Ukraine had established its strategy in the defense of cities by retreating into them (Sievierodonetk, Sumy, Kyiv…)

Since Bakhmut, the Ukrainian army is no longer able to defend inside cities, examples : (Avdiivka, Selydove, Kourakhove, Pokrovsk…)

🧵THREAD🧵1/13⬇️ Image
The core of ukrainian strategy in 2022 was to retreat from the countrysides into large cities, this happened in the north, Nyzhin, Chernihiv, Konotop, Romny...

During the movement warfare, cities were the base of the defense, and Ukraine tryied to keep it later.
In 2023, Ukraine also based its defense on major cities, the main example is Bakhmut, for which the urban battle was one of the biggest and longest (talking about fightings inside, not in the flanks).

-> Bakhmut was the last battle fought during long time inside a city
Read 13 tweets
Nov 4
Seen from Kyiv 🇺🇦, the last Donbas fortress

Most maps of the war in Ukraine are showing the same perspective and the same informations. Here, you will see rivers, railways, fortifications, forests...

20 surprising maps on the war in Ukraine

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1- The frontline in december 2022

Days after the end of the Kharkiv and Kherson counter-offensive, russian army was controling less than 50% of the Donetsk region. The battle for Bakhmut just started and Donetsk was still threatened.

This map may seem old or out of context, but it actually helps to better understand the evolution of the Russian offensives in the Donbas.

One must put oneself in the shoes of the political and military decision-makers in Moscow: they had failed to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa, to force Ukraine to capitulate, they had been humiliated in Kharkiv, and had to retreat from Kherson. It was therefore the full force of Soviet firepower that was deployed in the east of the country and became ruthless in the ensuing battles, sometimes at the cost of very heavy losses, as at Bakhmut and Avdiivka.Image
2- Three years in Donbas

The last 3 years of war have mainly been fought in Donbass.

After very slow and costly advances for the Russian army in Bakhmut and Avdiivka in 2023, the offensive towards Pokrovsk accelerated in 2024, with the Ukrainian army surrendering the best fortifications in the Donetsk suburbs.

The main Russian victory took place in South Donetsk, now completely under Russian control, but many months of campaigning remain, at the current pace, between one and two years to capture the last strongholds in North Donetsk. These three years have seen a constant offensive, the gradual depletion of Ukrainian reserves, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of soldiers in a relentless war of attrition. On paper, the Ukrainian army has held its ground and not yielded, despite local setbacks. It remains to be seen whether it will maintain its endurance.Image
Read 23 tweets
Nov 3
L'Armée Soudanaise 🇸🇩 continue d'offrir une base arrière pour les rebelles Tigréens 🔴🟡en réaction au soutien Ethiopien 🇪🇹 aux FSR.

Sur cette vidéo, 500 recrues de l'Armée 70 du TPLF participent à une cérémonie de remise des diplômes dans l'est du Soudan.

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En tout, l'Armée 70 compterai plus de 5 000 hommes basés dans l'Etat du Gédaref, à l'est du Soudan.

Ces hommes ont fuit le Tigré en 2020, lorsque l'Ethiopie, l'Erythrée et les forces de l'Amhara avaient coupé la rébellion Tigréenne de la frontière soudanaise. Image
La région de Welkait, à l'ouest du Tigré (annexée par la région tigréenne à l'Amhara dans les années 1990) a été prise et annexée par l'amhara en 2020, coupant l'accès au Soudan, crucial pour les tigréens. Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 1
🇷🇺/🇺🇦2026: Kramatorsk and Zaporijia?

With two months to go before the end of 2025, the Russian army continues to lay the groundwork for major battles in 2026.

With Pokrovsk falling, Putin will not stop his war before conquering Kramatorsk.

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The capture of Pokrovsk is drawing closer, culminating a two-year offensive to first clear the outskirts of Donetsk and then assault this strategic city.

Situated on a hilltop and boasting a significant rail and road network, Pokrovsk will give the russians a major advantage. Image
The capture of Pokrovsk is not yet a done deal, and I estimate that the battle, particularly in the suburbs, will continue for several more months.

The Ukrainian army still holds the strongholds of Udachne and Rodynske, preventing any overrun on its flanks. Image
Read 21 tweets

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