Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 19, 2024 13 tweets 6 min read Read on X
A week ago, Russian 🇷🇺 armed forces launched a large counter-offensive to take back the territory they lost in #Kursk oblast.

At the same time, Ukrainian 🇺🇦 armed forces tried to trap these russian forces, launching their own offensive.

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This week has seen many fightings in the western part of ukrainian presence of Kursk oblast. Russian offensive had initial successes, and broke through the defenses of the 103rd territorial defense brigade south of Korenevo, taking some prisonners.
Two main units were engaged in the counter-offensive : VDV of the 51st Airborne Regiment and Marines of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.

In two days, they took back Snagost and small villages near the Seym river. Ukrainian 501st Marine batallion of 36th Marine had to withdraw. Image
The days after, VDV launched new attacks toward Liubimovka, while 155th Marines managed to enter Gordeevka, Veznapnoe, Apanasovka and Obukhovka.

Here is a video of the assault on Liubimovka and a BMD of the VDV getting hit by a FPV drone.

Ukrainian command was unable to keep its positions, which were in fact strategic. The Glushkovo district (on the west) was nearly encircled (only pontoon bridges on the Seym river were allowing supply).

Russian army amassed thousands of men there to avoid losing it.
Ukrainian command decided to mobilize 21st mecanized brigade, 225th Assault Batallion and 95th Air Assault brigade to launch an attack directly on Glushkovo.

Here is a good thread by @Danspiun including all the geolocated footages of this area.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian assault on Veseloe south of Glushkovo. They may be a little more in the north, but I don"t have proofs for now. Image
Today, we spotted this ground drone attacking the western flank of this attack. The use of unmanned systems like this one allows Ukraine to keep its men safe.
During this assault, we saw Swedish CV 9040 and STRV 122 (Leopard 2). Some CV 9040 and STRV 122 were lost during the assault.



Russia tried to counter-attack multiple times there but failed to take back territory lost. The Glushkovo pocket is now at a high risk of being encircled.

I said multiple times russia has to hold there, because if they loose the pocket, it will be very difficult to take it back.



On the other side of Kursk frontline, Russian forces took back Borki. Sudja is still far from Russian forces.

The ukrainian presence in Kursk has decreased recently, however, russian army is still on a difficult position on the western part. Image
Today images from ©Planet show a lot of bombing east of the current russian presence and some recent russia attacks (we can see the scars in the corn fields + the roads used by Ukraine on the border.
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I'm now going to update Pokrovsk fortifications since today sentinel-2 does not have any cloud.

You can follow @atummundi (where i also write) and follow me on my LinkedIn () linkedin.com/in/cl%C3%A9men…
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More from @clement_molin

Apr 15
3 years ago from today started the Sudan 🇸🇩 war between the Rapid Support Forces militia led by Hemedti and the Sudanese Armed Forces led by Al Burhan

This war is one of the biggest and deadliest forgotten conflict (~400k dead). Here is what you need to know :

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️
What are the causes of the Sudan war ?

🔹Long islamist dictatorship that ended in 2019 led by Omar Al Bechir
🔹Independance of South Sudan in 2011 (long war before, less oil revenue since then)
🔹War in Darfur and Kordofan since 2003 (rise of Janjawid militias, today RSF) between Khartoum and non-arab ethnicities
🔹Rivalry between SAF and RSF for power, they took power in 2021 avec 3 years of civilian/military transition
🔹Ethnic rivalry between Nile Arabs, Darfur Arabs and Sudanese Africans people
🔹Oil, gold, water and agricultural control rivalry
🔹Foreign interference from UAE, Chad, Turkiye, Ethiopie, Egypt, Libya, South Sudan, Russia...Image
The war started on april 15th 2023, when the Rapid Support Forces led by general Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (back then n°2 of the military junta) tryied to take the power after the Army leader, Abdel Fattah Al Burhan (n°1 of the military junta) asked for the control of RSF by SAF. Image
Read 16 tweets
Apr 13
Avec "seulement" 53% des votes, Magyar emporte 70% (!) des sièges à l'Assemblée hongroise 🇭🇺.

C'est dire à quel point les réformes électorales d'Orban se sont retournées contre lui.

Les 199 députés sont anti-immigration, nationalistes et de droite, chose à garder à l'esprit. ⬇️ Image
Ce que beaucoup refusent de comprendre, c'est que Magyar n'est pas une rupture par rapport à Orban. On passe juste d'un candidat national-souverainiste à un candidat national-libéral/pro-européen.

Magyar était pendant 22 ans au Fidesz, qu'il n'a quitté qu'en 2024 ! Image
Ces élections montrent que la priorité absolue est le pouvoir d'achat (la dévaluation continue du Forint, et la stagnation économique comparément aux voisins est un mauvais signal).

Pour autant, la question européenne reste centrale, surtout chez les jeunes. Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 13
The USA 🇺🇸 announced yesterday that it would impose a blockade on Iran 🇮🇷, thus reinforcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait's importance is global, and some key figures are often forgotten when considering the consequences on global economy :

🧵THREAD🧵1/8⬇️ Image
25% of the oil exportations are going through Hormuz.

-80% of those are going to Asia (mainly China, India, South Korea and Japan)
-Saudi Arabia (1st), Iraq (3rd), UAE (5th), Kuwait (7th) are highly dependant on the strait Image
25% of the gas exportations are going through Hormuz

-Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran are exporting gas, which is going through Hormuz. Qatar is the 3rd world exporter. Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 12
Peter Magyar peut-il battre Viktor Orban à la tête de la Hongrie 🇭🇺 depuis 16 ans ?

Avec une participation déjà record de 74.23 % à 17h, le scrutin apparait fortement indécis. Les résultats arriveront entre 19h et minuit.

Suivez les avec moi en direct ici :

🧵THREAD🧵1/X⬇️ Image
Le système électoral hongrois est composé de 199 députés, dont 93 élus à la proportionnelle (favorable à Magyar et au Tisza).

Les 106 autres sièges sont élus dans les circonscriptions locales, redécoupées en faveur d'Orban.

2/X Image
En 2022, Le Fidesz d'Orban l'avait largement emporté dans la grande majorité des circonscriptions du pays, à part à Budapest, Pecs, Szeged et dans les élections proportionnelles.

3/X Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 9
Zelensky is right on this one, Ukraine 🇺🇦 has no interest in giving away the remaining part of Donbas

This area is the most fortified of Ukraine, there are some of the last big cities, 200 000 inhabitants and losing it would open the path for Kharkiv or Dnipro.

🧵1/5 ⬇️ Image
Here is a map showing all the barbed wire protecting cities, towns and villages from infiltration. Going though will be costly, and this is in Donbas. Image
The main city is Kramatorsk, but there are also additionnal cities such as Sloviansk or Dobropilla.

These cities are highly fortified, but there is also heavy industry, power plants and mines. Ukraine has no interest leaving the area. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 8
L'opération israélo-américaine en Iran est-elle un échec ?

❌Le régime n'a pas été renversé
❌Le détroit d'Ormuz a été fermé
❌Les programmes balistiques et nucléaires n'ont pas été détruits
✅L'Iran a été affaiblie
✅Le volet militaire s'est plutôt bien déroulé

🧵THREAD🧵⬇️ Image
🔸L'objectif américain : le flou

L'objectif initial, martelé à de nombreuses reprises par Trump était de renverser le régime en détruisant les gardiens de la révolution et les moyens répressifs pour permettre une prise de pouvoir par la population.

Deux objectifs secondaires suivaient, celui de détruire le programme nucléaire et le programme balistique de l'Iran.

Pourtant, après le début de la guerre, le flou entretenu par un président américain utilisant ses propres déclarations pour parier de l'argent sur les marchés est resté total. L'objectif de rouvrir le détroit d'Ormuz ne figurait pas parmi les objectifs initiaux, et pourtant, c'était celui dominant dès la 2ème semaine des opérations.Image
🔸La stratégie iranienne :

L'Iran, qui s'y préparait depuis des décennies était très bien préparée (qui l'eut cru !). Frapper Israël n'avait pas d'intérêt, défendre l'espace aérien était impossible.

L'Iran a plutôt fait tout pour répandre la guerre le plus possible, en touchant avant tout les moyens de production économique (pétrole, gaz, tourisme, espaces aériens, industries) du Golfe (dont le détroit d'Ormuz) et les bases américaines.

Beaucoup annonçaient la mort de l'axe de résistance, bien que durement frappé, celui-ci est toujours là : les milices chiites d'Irak ont été très actives contre les bases américaines dans le pays, le Hezbollah a rejoins la guerre contre Israël et les Houthis du Yémen ont suffisamment menacés d'entrer en guerre, de fermer le détroit de Bab el Mandeb et de frapper les ports saoudiens occidentaux pour empêcher les Etats du Golfe d'entrer dans la guerre contre l'Iran.

En parallèle, l'Iran a bien camouflé ses lanceurs de missiles et de drones, permettant un lancement régulier (100 drones et 50 missiles par jours). L'enjeu est désormais de déterrer les milliers de lanceurs coincés dans les bases souterraines pour remplacer ceux perdus en surface.Image
Read 11 tweets

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