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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Sep 19 • 6 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
So Iran now says there will be a joint response to the Lebanon situation from the « Axis of Resistance »

It sounds however like this will not be overly escalatory in order to avoid an all out war.

🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
So perhaps we will see something more demonstrative. Firing missiles into the sea or the desert would be unfortunate for the fishes and camels. But it may allow the Axis to make their point without leading to a regional war that could so easily spiral completely out of control. /2
Alternatively, far better, and perhaps more effective as a prelude would be a united Arabic diplomatic response with a new peace proposal.

The U.S. is clocked out for the election and such a move could potentially lower the temperature and assist with the ultimate goal. /3
Netanyahu is inevitably finished at this point and will be forced to live out his life in Israel to avoid being arrested and tried in The Hague. /4
The U.S. mediation effort meanwhile has proven to be a complete failure. A threat to completely isolate and cut off Israel from the rest of the Middle East. Abd cancel the Abraham accords could be effective. .
/ends

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 20
Interesting clear eyed commentary as always from Mearshiemer.

Following the Israeli’s latest escalation the Israelis are now in a stalemate situation.

Prof. John Mearsheimer : Is Israel on the Brink? via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/juNa3vgXI…
I.E. they have now run out of options. And Netanyahu is now in a bind.

If Netanyahu / Israel has more tricks up its sleeve to address this remains to be seen.

But the overall construction here following Nasrallah’s remarks is pretty clear and it looks like Israel is not in a position to invade Lebanon. If they were they would have done so yesterday or the day before.
This is helpful to the Biden Administration I’d argue.

Hezbollah’s unambiguous response saying that they will only stop attacks on the northern front if there is a ceasefire in Gaza is Chrystal clear.

And this is what the American Administration also wants.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 17
The 538 poll of polls is a complete disaster for the GOP at this point.

Biden’s desire for U.S. Supreme Court reform under Kamala is now a theoretical possibility. Previously it was a pipe dream.



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1/2

National Harris vs Trump Polls (reverse chronological order)

note: He’s only ahead in one poll since September 11th (so FOX’s desperate flag hugging effort had zero impact) and in that one poll only by 2 points whereas Harris has several 4-5 point margins.

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2/2

And if you go back to late August he’s only ahead in four polls. In three of them by 1 point and the other by just 2. All of them statistical ties.

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Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 11
Went looking at @FoxNews to see how they were coping with the shocking fail by Trump last night.

The show today has the vibes of a flag hugging wake.

This is far from surprising as the 9/11 commemorations are the backdrop of the day. But what’s surprising is how little Fox has.

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But if @JDVance thinks dissing @taylorswift13 is going to help the GOP he’s being a bit daft.

I look forward to this becoming a meme given that « childless cat ladies » is probably what he is best known for. npr.org/2024/07/29/nx-…
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@JDVance @taylorswift13 Sort of akin to punching yourself figuratively in the face. But it should get him attention - which is probably his calculus.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 25
🔴 Al Jazeera English | Live via @YouTube

Frankly the only way I can think of to interpret this is that Israel is seeking to draw the U.S. Armada which is currently approaching Israel to establish a defensive shield over Israel into a wider war.

Yesterday was the Jewish Shabbat. Today is the Christian Sabbath. This is Netanyahu’s last stand, yet another attempt to start a regional war with the objective of dragging the U.S. into the war with Iran that he has been trying to engineer for the last few months.

He knows that a Kamala Harris Presidency will possibly be less cautious. He is concerned that a progressive administration in the White House will not tolerate his approach to Israeli security, the war he is currently waging and the long-term extremist right wing objective of driving all Palestinians out of Israel.

But to secure the space for this outcome he Israel needs a regional war with U.S. involvement to degrade Hezbollah and Iranian military capacity.

In the short term here and now he needs to blow up the talks in Cairo which are now on the threshold it seems of delivering a ceasefire agreement.

All parties to this conflict and the international community more broadly need to continue to calibrate their responses to not give him what he wants.

This morning’s events should be allowed to die down, and absent a major escalation by Hezbollah and Iran they should do so readily.

The world know knows who is responsible for continuing this horror show. The U.S. and Israel.

This morning when the U.S. wakes up it should be helped to see once again the stark reality here. That Israel under Netanyahu has become a rogue state, threatening the peace of the entire Middle East, and threatening to drag U.S. airmen and soldiers into a war that no-one sane in either the U.S., Europe, or indeed anyone on the planet wants.

Maintaining self control at this moment is therefore vital. And Netanyahu will then lose. He will not get his regional war and Israel will have to agree to a ceasefire.youtube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
Meanwhile…

/2 Israeli bombardments in Gaza kill several as polio vaccination continues... … via @YouTube
/3 & perhaps most significantly a mass mobilisation for a ceasefire has now become a General Strike.



« A major nationwide strike is now underway across Israel.

The largest trade union says it wants to pressure the government of Benjamin Netanyahu into signing a Gaza ceasefire and captive release deal with Hamas.
The action was called after the bodies of six Israeli captives were recovered from a tunnel in southern Gaza on Saturday.

Hamas has blamed Israeli air strikes for the deaths of those six captives whose bodies were recovered on Saturday.
Israel says they were found with bullet wounds.

Dozens of people attended a vigil for one of the six, Israeli-American Hersh Goldberg-Polin.

Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich is trying to halt the general strike.
He's asked the attorney general to impose a ban - saying the industrial action will have significant economic consequences.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid has called for a complete government shutdown.

Udi Goren, a member of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, spoke to Al Jazeera from the Israeli Knesset in West Jerusalem, where the group has been speaking to parliament members amid an ongoing general strike calling on Netanyahu to reach a deal with Hamas for the release of the remaining captives. »
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 11




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Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 21
THREAD: Some thoughts on October 7th and the importance of their being global transparency over what we know about what really happened on that terrible day.

1/ This (see screenshots in the first few posts in this thread) is one of the most important pieces of conflict related journalism published in recent years.

It relates to the orders given to soldiers on October 7th to fire on any vehicle seeking to return to the Gaza Strip to prevent the taking of hostages and was published on July 7th, 10 months later in Haaretz.Image
2/ As @IsraeliPM Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to address congress it is vital that the public in the US, Israel and globally is fully aware of what exactly happened on October 7th in Gaza. Image
3/ The account in this story published by Haaretz is at this time still behind a paywall and it has therefore not been read by the very large number of people who ought to have done so. I have not seen very many reports containing the detail of this report elsewhere though I presume there are many.

A copy of the report can be found however on here >> Archive.is
archive.md/zqUntImage
Read 16 tweets

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