🧵Oktyabrsky precision strike
1/6 Last night, there were two strikes, and my first thread on the Toropets bunker was just released. The image I'm sharing combines a CNES/Airbus 2024 optical image and a false colour image from Sentinel 1C. The depot can be divided into two macro areas: North with mostly unprotected AGM (Above Ground Magazine) and South with open-air stockpiles. The strike affected Some places more than others; I'll be delving into this to understand why.
1/6 Last night, there were two strikes, and my first thread on the Toropets bunker was just released. The image I'm sharing combines a CNES/Airbus 2024 optical image and a false colour image from Sentinel 1C. The depot can be divided into two macro areas: North with mostly unprotected AGM (Above Ground Magazine) and South with open-air stockpiles. The strike affected Some places more than others; I'll be delving into this to understand why.
2/6 This schematic illustrates why the southern region, despite its clear vulnerability, is less impacted by fires—at least those visible. Notably, the largest open-air storage area has been quite active. Stockpiles from 2021 until summer 2023, appear significantly depleted and are likely not being replenished with new materials. In addition, the central open-air section of the northern part of the depot seems largely empty.
3/6 I selected a few images of the open-air stockpile dated 2021 to better understand what stockpiles were there, at least theoretically. They look pretty much like stocks of missiles of different types possibly GRAD and other larger types. However, I am not able to identify at the moment. By looking at the video I realised you can appreciate the decrease in amount (up to summer 2023), which ultimately seems explaining why these areas were not targeted.
4/6 Upon closer inspection of the zones where the fires appear to be concentrated, we can identify an area near a road that seems to connect the buildings with the railway. We do not know what those AGMs were housing, but is likely that some of these buildings were acting as logistics to prepare material to be shipped via the railway. This is further supported by the significant amount of material present in this satellite image, suggesting that the attack may have targeted specific assets, which were likely prepared to be deployed to the frontline.
5/6 Contrary to what happened in Toropets, in this case, the depot was not protected in the same way, with no ECM (Earth Covered Magazine) and only old AGMs in place. Is hard to say if the strike on Toropets, caused any miscalculation in the commanders at Oktyabrsky. But what is undeniable, is the accuracy and efficacy of these strikes. These strikes will have an impact on the frontline situation, maybe not immediately but in a few weeks. These strikes further demonstrate the capacity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to operate complex and high-value strikes.
6/6 If you would like to read more about Russian stockpiles and other topics regarding the war, I encourage you to follow us on @tochnyi and visit our website. tochnyi.info/2024/09/logist…
@tochnyi And for those who would like to ask us questions and know more tomorrow, we have a live podcast!
https://x.com/tochnyi/status/1837612534859260244
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