Thread by @info_insightful

Q4 predictions for airdrop land

All LSTs that play off of EIGEN will continue to be dust (has basically played out already)

have some hope for @MitosisOrg , @Karak_Network , and @symbioticfi but not expecting much

We will see a similar situation playout for at the BTC staking ponzis building off of @babylonlabs_io

There might be one in S1 that pops off (like Etherfi S1) but all others and all future seasons will be dust

Sweet spot will likely be in the middle that isn't just a babylon restaking compound play

Ex. BTC project building on top of Mezo has relatively low TVL and users, can only interact with BTC wallets and mainnet min deposit is 0.015 BTC and fees are $60 = naturally sybil resistance

$DBR - will dump faster than @Starknet's DAU after TGE, 99% of people are going to take the 20% penalty rather than wait 6 months

@unisat_wallet continuous use should be +EV compared to all other BTC wallets currently, we have already seen multiple $500 airdrop $PIZZA, fractal bitcoin just from using it

Will be +EV to passively use @JumperExchange + @StargateFinance instead of other bridges (possible jumper TGE + position for L0 S2)

Same thing for @MayanFinance + @wormhole (wormhole will have a S2), would use this more for SOL <-->EVM rather than just EVM <--> EVM, assuming SOL wallets get a higher "value" weighting

@HyperliquidX will prolly be one of the few airdrops you dont want to instadump (unless it launch at absurdly high FDV)

Scroll will likely be comedically disappointing, Sandy is already prepping mindshare with posts like

"your happiest when your expectations are 0", or

"your entitled to what you do or the work you put in but not the reward your anticipating" stuff like that

also entire scroll rollout has been pretty jank: panic cancelling galxe campaign, marks not working, badges being a milk fest ect

@cubexch is currently being overlooked due to @OrderlyNetwork PTSD - $21M funding, requires KYC, requires active trading and to pay fees, points system is live, may or may not have only 1 season with 10% supply airdropped at TGE

Shameless ref shill for Cube use code " insightful "

We will see more projects do allocations similar to @eigenlayer 's "content creator" bonus and @sanctumso 's earnestness system where you'll get allocation based on your impressions across various social media platforms

and you'll still be able to get a slice of the pie if your "small" or not a "KOL"

NFT gaming projects that raised and have been building for 2+ years, with good funding and a solid game now that have been written off as "dead"

that still have genesis NFTs with low supply and down greatly from ATH are good r/r imo

Ex. Project I've been bidding raised over $6M at a ~$25M FDV valuation, the NFTs are down 70% at~$25 cause they've been building for 2 years

If only 2% of the supply is airdropped to these NFT and the token launches around the raise valuation then each NFT would get $250 worth of tokens

Ex. You could of bought Pirate nation NFTs for 0.05ETH like for a year before the raise announcement, which was like another 4 months before the P2A campaign where they rose to 1.5 ETH (now at 1.8 ETH in S2 currently)

Similar story with Nexian Gems by Skyborne/ revolving games

Stuff like that

Anything that I missed ?