Thread by @ArturRehi

Apparently, the Ukrainian victory plan announced by Zelensky is working and in October-November we should expect new surprises from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The offensive in the Kursk region is only the first steps and seeing the consistency of Ukraine in its actions,
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we can assume that everything is going according to plan. The destruction of three important arsenals in Russia is an important step and a very noticeable blow to the combat capability of the Russian army. The amount of destroyed Russian ammunition would be enough for 3-4
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months of warfare and this will soon affect the situation at the front. Ukrainian drones do not have enough power to break through the concrete walls of the arsenals, but some of the ammunition was stored outside and this led to a chain detonation. In Kamennoye near
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Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, on the territory of the warehouse there was a train with 2,000 tons of ammunition from North Korea and it was also destroyed along with the arsenal. Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said that the fire was caused by falling debris
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from a Ukrainian drone. Apparently, Russian governors were given a copy of the same manual in case of drones landing. Another landing was in Oktyabrsky near Toropets. It is simply impossible to calculate how much Russia has lost in two days, but according to the most
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approximate estimates, about 25% of the annual production of ammunition plus supplies from North Korea. However, one should not expect the war to end soon, because no one can say when it will happen. Russia, experiencing problems with equipment, is conducting more infantry
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attacks. In the Pokrovsk direction, Ukraine experiences 50-60 Russian assaults daily. Additionally, DeepState data on the average daily number of attacks per month testifies to the increase in activity: May - 122, June - 125, July - 143, August - 145, September - 170 in the
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first 19 days of the month. The shortage of equipment among the Russians even complicates the possibility of their detection. The Russians are now moving in small groups and are harder to see. Russia also retains its main advantage - aviation. In the past week alone, Russia
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has used more than 900 guided aerial bombs, about 400 "Shahed" drones, and almost 30 missiles of various types. Russian terror does not stop for a minute, and simply because of its size, Russia has a huge inertia and margin of safety. Ukraine has its own difficulties,
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especially in the Pokrovsk direction. Numerous complaints about management and communication, problems in training, and much more. Most likely, we should expect quick reshuffles in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because it is no longer possible to ignore the situation and
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Ukraine simply does not have the ability to spend its resources on such mistakes, in addition, there is public pressure. However, we must understand that the main reason for the loss of Avdiivka was the shell shortage after the US delayed aid. This, unfortunately, will
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be a black spot on the reputation of the United States in history. The front had caved in at its weakest point at the time, and the attack on Pokrovsk was a consequence of the front's breakthrough in that area. However, Russia continues to spend resources in huge
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quantities, and further signs of a personnel crisis are visible. Assault regiments from the Air Force repair brigade have been formed at the front, but the most interesting thing is that the "Frigate" regiment has been formed from the Navy, which includes sailors from the
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Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which is undergoing indefinite repairs after it sank along with the floating dock, a crane fell on it. Later a fire broke out. And this is not counting the fact that while it was undergoing repairs, workers and sailors removed
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and carried away everything they could, including secret equipment. OSINT observers also report that the latest test of the Sarmat or Satan-2 by NATO classification ballistic missile at the Plesetsk cosmodrome ended in an epic explosion. There is now a deep crater at the
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site of the launch pad and the entire launch site of the cosmodrome is destroyed. This is at least the 4th unsuccessful attempt to test the Sarmat heavy combat ICBM. The "first and last" successful launch of the Sarmat missile was made in Russia on April 20, 2022.
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The Sarmat missile is far from new technology. Its predecessor, Satan, was produced in Ukraine in the city of Dnepr. Naturally, Russia no longer has access to technology and is trying to create its own version. Considering that valuable specialists are now being sent to
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the front, whose training takes years, these may be interconnected. Putin is faced with the difficult choice of declaring mobilization, although he is unlikely to have a real understanding of the real scale of the resource problem due to the false reports of his generals.
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Also a new mobilization could hit the economy. Russia may not be able to withstand 200-300 thousand people pulled out of the economy. This fall will largely set the direction for next year and let's hope that Ukraine's victory plan is implemented as soon as possible.
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