Thread by @AndrewHammel1

1/ A few thoughts about the state election in Brandenburg. Brandenburg is the state surrounding Berlin. Not very large but somewhat important geographically. Greens drop below the 5% barrier, as in Thuringia, meaning they drop out of the state parliament.
dw.com/en/germany-bra…

2/ This is the latest disaster for the Greens. Brandenburg is more liberal than many East German states, and the Greens were over 10% in the last election. Failing at the 5% barrier is a major catastrophe for any state party.

3/ This is just the latest in a series of terrible results for the Greens, who have lost something like 50% of their support in the last few years.

4/ Even where they're stronger, other parties are beginning to proclaim that they won't enter a coalition with the Greens because the Greens can be relied on to block any meaninful reform of immigration policy, German voters' #1 concern.

5/ Brandenburg is a good state for the Social Democrats, who also had a popular candidate for Minister-President. The SPO barely edged out the populist-right AfD 30.9% to 29.2%.

6/ The newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Party (left on economics, right on immigration) probably siphoned off about 5% from the AfD. Once again there was a stark age split: Older voters went for the center-right SPD, young voters went 32% for the AfD, more than the overall number.

7/ Everyone has an explanation for this "puzzling" phenomenon. The one I find convincing is that pensioners living in paid-off homes in nice middle-class areas who stay home at night haven't had to confront Germany's accelerating impoverishment

8/ and the drastic demographic changes it's undergoing -- 10 million new immigrants in the past 10 years, doubling the share of foreigners. German institutions from hospitals to schools to welfare agencies are cracking under the strain everywhere you look.

9/ Assuming these preferences stay stable as the youth cohort ages, we may see some striking shifts in the next few years -- that is, unless Germany actually manages to enact truly drastic immigration reforms and actually implement them.

10/ Mind you, the reforms will only seem "truly drastic" within Germany; if they happen, they will only align Germany with what most other EU countries are already doing.