Thread by @ColbyBadhwar

In 1 week, at the end of Fiscal Year 2024, $5.925 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority is set to expire. If this happens, it will cripple the US' ability to support Ukraine. We've seen this story before. Will Congress and the Biden Admin manage to avert disaster?

🧵⬇️ 1/20

This is a summary of my latest piece for @InsiderEng, please do check it out. This thread will also include some additional details that have been learned since the column was posted.

2/20theins.press/en/opinion/col…

If you want additional context before proceeding, read my previous thread quoted below. I will have a second research thread on this topic coming in the future that will provide additional information and make corrections to this previous thread.

3/20

https://twitter.com/701156462177947652/status/1777328492566471120

What is about to expire, is the Presidential Drawdown Authority approved by Congress for FY2024, pursuant to Section 506 of the Foreign Assistance Act. This is not money/funding/appropriations. It is authority to send defense articles to other countries from DoD stocks.

4/20

Once Fiscal Year 2025 begins there will still be funding available to the DoD to buy weapons for Ukraine and buy replacement weapons for itself, but they will have lost the authority to send nearly $6 billion worth of weapons from their stockpiles to Ukraine.

5/20

This has happened before. At the end of FY22, the Biden Admin allowed over $2 billion in PDA expire. That was ~25% of the total that had been approved in the May 2022 Additional Ukraine Supplemental Approps Act. Ukraine could have really used some extra ammo at that time.

6/20

The current situation is even worse. A staggering 76% of the $7.8 billion in PDA approved by Congress in April (with the understanding that the Biden Admin would actually use it) will soon expire. This has been caused by them needlessly rationing the PDA beyond necessity.

7/20

The newly directed drawdowns since April have averaged just $200 million each, whereas during Fiscal Year 2023 the figure was around $600 million. Ukraine’s needs today are certainly not three times less than they were a year ago — if anything, they have grown.

8/20

Since Congress has not yet passed appropriations for FY25, they will need to pass a continuing resolution (CR) to continue government spending into the next FY at current FY24 levels. The Biden Admin is asking for that CR to include an extension of the PDA into FY25.

9/20

So far, Congress has not come to an agreement on passing a CR. The drafts proposed by the House have not even included the PDA extension. Betting on Congress legislating effectively is never wise, yet this is the Plan A the Biden Admin came up with as time was running out.

10/20

The latest reporting indicates that there will be a bipartisan CR agreement, but the Senate will need to amend the House's bill to include the Ukraine related provisions, which are still absent. If not, then they will need to go to Plan B, which should have been Plan A.

11/20

https://twitter.com/701156462177947652/status/1837965422181666922

The key process in a PDA is the determination and notification that President & Secretary of State send to Congress. Once that happens, the drawdown execution can begin; there isn't a time limit on its completion though.

12/20

So the President could sign a Drawdown for all the remaining ~$5.9 billion authority, and then deliveries could occur in FY25. The best thing for Ukraine would be to receive a lot of those defense articles upfront, but more likely, the Biden Admin will continue rationing.

13/20

They are still hoping that Congress comes through though, and have planned to make a $375 million drawdown today. If Congress doesn't, then they have until Sept 30 to notify them of another drawdown for the remaining $5.55 billion.



14/20reuters.com/world/biden-re…

If there had been any foresight, the Biden Admin could have requested that the April supplemental authorize the PDA for both FY24 & FY25. Making things up as they go along has been a reliable hallmark of their Ukraine policy though.

15/20

Their new talking point that is emerging, is that US stocks are now critically, depleted, and they can only afford to give Ukraine very small, incremental drawdown packages. This too, of course, is a problem of their own making, caused by 2 and a half years of inaction.

16/20

Yes the US Army does not have enough PATRIOTs for their own requirements, so why not order more both for them and Ukraine? That has been an available option that has been ignored in favour of committing USAI funds to gimmicky pet projects of the Pentagon.

17/20

USAI funds could also be used to help finance the Czech ammunition initiative, but that too has been ignored by Secretary Austin.

18/20

Or to refurbish decommissioned armored vehicles sitting in the desert at Sierra Army Depot.

19/20

There are still some tools in the toolbox. As President Biden counts down to the day when he leaves the White House, he needs to consider if he wants his legacy to be that he starved Ukraine of aid and kicked the can down the road for the next President to deal with.

20/20