Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 23, 2024 21 tweets 8 min read Read on X
The operational situation is worsening for Ukraine🇺🇦 Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction.

In the following days, Russia 🇷🇺 will reach Kourakhove and Ukraine will be forced to leave Vuhledar, its main stronghold on this front.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
First, the general map for more context :

I'm french and most of my threads will be in french, so i'm sorry but you will have to translate most of them... (next ones will be in french).

I'm also writing for @atummundi, you can follow this account. Image
I still see many people saying the situation is under controll for Ukraine armed forces near Pokrovsk.

That's not totally true for Pokrovsk front itself. In the past week, Russia advanced to the edge of the third defensive line, taking the whole of Hrodivka city. Image
But if the situation on the Pokrovsk 'city' front is more or less under controll, it is not the case on the Pokrovsk/Kourakhove axis.

This video geolocated by shows a russian assault east of Ukrainsk, on a field where there are barely no scars of shelling t.me/creamy_caprice
This happened west of the town of Ukrainsk Russia captured a few days ago. This progress put the Selydove stronghold in danger.

Moreover, there are no more defensive lines west of the railway. Image
The Russian objective is not difficult to understand. They are now having a foothold on the railway. This will allow them to cross and try to reach the lake in Kourakhove.

Ukrainian positions in Hrynk and Kurakhivka may be forced to be abandonned. Image
A few days ago, I showed a map of fortified lines around Kourakhove. You can see the Andriivka and Kourakhove line are looking south. Image
And you can see the same thing near Pokrovsk : Russian progress south of Selydove near the railway is exactly at the east of the line south of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on geolocated footages from @UAControlMap by (@EjShahid and @klinger66) + @Deepstate_UA map, russian forces are present west of Hostre after multiple assaults.

They will soon cut the Kurakhivka-Kourakhove road.

Worst case scenario would be 🇷🇺 presence west of Kourakhove. Image
Now, some videos from Vuhledar front. This is a very well defended frontline, maybe because units there are well trained and organized.

The first 2 videos show russian progress west of Vuhledar, and the third shows russian losses that are still high there.



Based on @naalsio26 analysis, Russia lost 1 715 (1352 destroyed) vehicles on its Avdiivka-Pokrovsk-Kourakhove offensive. This data is from @WarSpotting, a very good source.

Ukraine lost 336 vehicles.

Among them, 780 AFV, 358 tanks and 73 trucks. Image
I use @WarSpotting and @lost_warinua maps to see where the geolocated losses are.

This a very good indicator of the situation at the front. For example, there are only few of them near Novohrodivka but many near Kourakhove.
Image
Image
Vuhledar was a frontline city for more than 2 years. It held because it has dominant high rise buildings.

Since Russia took two of the 3 heights of the region (mine and factory), Ukraine will have to leave Vuhledar in the coming days/weeks. Image
Here is a distrurbing map looking west to understand the overall russian offensive.

In a few days, we will reach the anniversary of the Avdiivka offensive, which soon become Pokrovsk offensive. Image
During the time, the objective changed a lot.

Russia first aimed at taking the whole Donetsk suburbs. They succeeded with high losses in Marinka, Krasnohorivka and Avdiivka.

But Ukraine did not have any plan after the fall of Donetsk suburbs.
In 2014-2015, Ukraine failed to enter Donetsk and even lost Donetsk airport to russian forces.

They established themselves on the western suburbs and built formidable fortifications. However, nobody from 2014 to 2023 prepared solid fall back lines west of this line.
Now, we just have to compare this to the north Donetsk : in 2022, formidable fortifications were erected all around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Bakhmout was fortified, Siversk was fortified, Tchasiv Yar was fortified :

They are holding in the north but not in the south.
The collapse of Donetsk city front began in june-august 2022.

Donetsk was a secondary frontline. Russia took Krasnohorivka north of Avdiivka, bypassing the defenses east of the town.
They entered Pisky, Opytne and Vodyane because there were not enough men there. Image
I've been monitoring a few indicators to understand both russian objective and ukrainian defensive war :

-Fortifications
-Armoured/tank losses
-direction of progress
-bombing

For example, here is a Planet image from the 21st, showing a lot of russian bombing north of Novohrodivka. This suggest they are currently stopped and they are trying to destroy ukrainian positions along the railway before resuming their progress.Image
This is the end of the thread. The overall situation is more or less stable on other frontlines. A video emerged of a russian progress north of Niu York, I'm waiting for further proofs.

Russia is also closing in on Senkove in Kupiansk front (north-east).

20/20 Image
I'm also writing on other topics than Ukraine. Here is a french thread on the Sudan civil war, which is very difficult but very interesting to understand :

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Clément Molin

Clément Molin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @clement_molin

Oct 6
*123 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers got killed in 2025 in Ukraine 🇺🇦, more than the french 🇫🇷 ground forces.

In total, 281 550 russian soldiers were lost in 2025 as per leaked report. It includes 123 000 killed and missing and 158 529 wounded.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
These leaked documents were initially shared by this account @hochuzhit_com which provided these two pictures.

*I don't know about the source which seems controversial but the data seems veracious since it is close to other data collected by Mediazona, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts.

There is high possibility this can be a propaganda operation, but the data can still be used.Image
Image
The document is giving few interesting insights on the state of russian forces. With 83 000 killed, it's close to the Mediazona count (54 000 in August with verified data).

It is also giving data on particular units and different sectors.
Read 25 tweets
Oct 5
Depuis le mois de mai 2025, la Russie 🇷🇺 a lâché 19 752 bombes guidées, dont 30% à Pokrovsk et 19% à Soumy.

Depuis le début de l'année, 35 148 bombes ont été lâchées ainsi que 1 488 990 frappes d'artilleries et 923 047 frappes de drones FPV.

Statistiques :

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
Depuis que je cartographie les frappes aériennes russes, j'ai pu en localiser environ 65% (principalement à Pokrovsk, Soumy et Pokrovsk'e).

Le reste non cartographié est probablement à Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kramatorsk, Koupiansk ou Kharkiv. Image
Hier, j'ai publié cette carte des plus de 6 000 frappes aériennes russes entre Pokrovsk et Kostiantynivka sur les 5 derniers mois, avec différents codes couleurs. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 4
Will Russia 🇷🇺 break the frontline again ?

Since few weeks, russian forces started again to push for Drujkivka, while hundreds of russians are still isolated.

I mapped all airstrikes there and at the same time, Ukraine 🇺🇦 is preparing the 3rd Donbass line🧑‍🔧.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
Since two months, there have been a massive split between analysts. Pro-ukrainian or pro-russian sources are divided to understand how much km2 fell this month to Russia.

Many fail to understand the new logics of war. Image
Image
For example :

-Some will map an area as russian because a ukrainian drone striked russian soldiers there or a russian was seen with a flag.
-Some will map a large grey zone

I would myself map the grey zone for one main reason :
Read 25 tweets
Oct 3
En #Birmanie🇲🇲, la guerre dure depuis 4 ans et demi

Après le coup d'état des militaires de 2021, le pays a plongé dans la guerre civile.

Celle-ci oppose rébellions ethniques et pro-démocratie à la junte militaire soutenue par la Russie 🇷🇺 et la Chine 🇨🇳.

🧵THREAD🧵1/19 ⬇️Carte de @ThomasVLinge que j'ai modifié
Depuis plusieurs mois, la contre-offensive de la Tatmadaw -nom de l'armée birmane- dans l'Etat Shan progresse lentement.

Progressivement, la junte a renversé les gains de l'opération 1024 débuté en 2023 d'après @MyanmarWarMap

Image
D'un autre côté, @Nrg8000 a fait un bon travail avec la carte de Thomas Van Linge.

On voit en rouge les gains de la junte sur l'année passée et en bleu les gains de la coalition rebelle. Image
Read 19 tweets
Oct 1
L'Arménie🇦🇲peut-elle disparaitre ?

C'était le titre d'une conférence à laquelle j'avais assisté en 2022 auprès de la communauté arménienne en France. A l'époque, l'Azerbaïdjan🇦🇿 avait envahit 300km2 d'Arménie.

Pourtant, le contexte a changé et les enjeux aussi

🧵THREAD🧵1/19⬇️Image
J'ai terminé de cartographier l'ensemble des positions militaires arméniennes et azerbaïdjanaises le long de leur frontière bilatérale.

En tout, ce sont plus de 1 400 positions arméniennes et 1 000 positions azerbaïdjanaises recensées. Image
Ces positions nous permettent de voir la vulnérabilité arménienne, encerclée de deux côté, notamment au sud, par l'Azerbaïdjan.

On remarque également les quelques 300 km2 de terres arméniennes (frontière de 1991) occupés par l'Azerbaïdjan, ici à Vardenis. Image
Read 19 tweets
Sep 30
'South Donetsk' the main battle in Ukraine 🇺🇦 for now 2 years

After two months of forced "pause" in Pokrovsk, it seems Russia🇷🇺 is pushing again. At the same time, the push for Pokrovsk'e has not observed any pause.

Let's talk about the main battle in Ukraine

🧵THREAD🧵1/22⬇️
You all know my classification of the ukrainian war into different battle : Kyiv, Kherson I, Kharkiv I, Donbass I, Kharkiv II, Kherson II, Donbass II, Zaporizhia, Kursk and Donbass III ongoing.

This third Donbass battle since 2022 is for Donetsk and now Pokrovsk. Image
To remember, the first one occured with the first reorganisation of russian forces after their failure to take Kyiv, taking Marioupol and Sievierodonetsk.

They moved then to Kherson and started after the withdrawal the second one for Bakhmut. The third one started in nov. 2023.
Read 22 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(