Clément Molin Profile picture
Sep 23, 2024 21 tweets 8 min read Read on X
The operational situation is worsening for Ukraine🇺🇦 Armed Forces in the South Donetsk direction.

In the following days, Russia 🇷🇺 will reach Kourakhove and Ukraine will be forced to leave Vuhledar, its main stronghold on this front.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️ Image
First, the general map for more context :

I'm french and most of my threads will be in french, so i'm sorry but you will have to translate most of them... (next ones will be in french).

I'm also writing for @atummundi, you can follow this account. Image
I still see many people saying the situation is under controll for Ukraine armed forces near Pokrovsk.

That's not totally true for Pokrovsk front itself. In the past week, Russia advanced to the edge of the third defensive line, taking the whole of Hrodivka city. Image
But if the situation on the Pokrovsk 'city' front is more or less under controll, it is not the case on the Pokrovsk/Kourakhove axis.

This video geolocated by shows a russian assault east of Ukrainsk, on a field where there are barely no scars of shelling t.me/creamy_caprice
This happened west of the town of Ukrainsk Russia captured a few days ago. This progress put the Selydove stronghold in danger.

Moreover, there are no more defensive lines west of the railway. Image
The Russian objective is not difficult to understand. They are now having a foothold on the railway. This will allow them to cross and try to reach the lake in Kourakhove.

Ukrainian positions in Hrynk and Kurakhivka may be forced to be abandonned. Image
A few days ago, I showed a map of fortified lines around Kourakhove. You can see the Andriivka and Kourakhove line are looking south. Image
And you can see the same thing near Pokrovsk : Russian progress south of Selydove near the railway is exactly at the east of the line south of Pokrovsk. Image
Based on geolocated footages from @UAControlMap by (@EjShahid and @klinger66) + @Deepstate_UA map, russian forces are present west of Hostre after multiple assaults.

They will soon cut the Kurakhivka-Kourakhove road.

Worst case scenario would be 🇷🇺 presence west of Kourakhove. Image
Now, some videos from Vuhledar front. This is a very well defended frontline, maybe because units there are well trained and organized.

The first 2 videos show russian progress west of Vuhledar, and the third shows russian losses that are still high there.



Based on @naalsio26 analysis, Russia lost 1 715 (1352 destroyed) vehicles on its Avdiivka-Pokrovsk-Kourakhove offensive. This data is from @WarSpotting, a very good source.

Ukraine lost 336 vehicles.

Among them, 780 AFV, 358 tanks and 73 trucks. Image
I use @WarSpotting and @lost_warinua maps to see where the geolocated losses are.

This a very good indicator of the situation at the front. For example, there are only few of them near Novohrodivka but many near Kourakhove.
Image
Image
Vuhledar was a frontline city for more than 2 years. It held because it has dominant high rise buildings.

Since Russia took two of the 3 heights of the region (mine and factory), Ukraine will have to leave Vuhledar in the coming days/weeks. Image
Here is a distrurbing map looking west to understand the overall russian offensive.

In a few days, we will reach the anniversary of the Avdiivka offensive, which soon become Pokrovsk offensive. Image
During the time, the objective changed a lot.

Russia first aimed at taking the whole Donetsk suburbs. They succeeded with high losses in Marinka, Krasnohorivka and Avdiivka.

But Ukraine did not have any plan after the fall of Donetsk suburbs.
In 2014-2015, Ukraine failed to enter Donetsk and even lost Donetsk airport to russian forces.

They established themselves on the western suburbs and built formidable fortifications. However, nobody from 2014 to 2023 prepared solid fall back lines west of this line.
Now, we just have to compare this to the north Donetsk : in 2022, formidable fortifications were erected all around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Bakhmout was fortified, Siversk was fortified, Tchasiv Yar was fortified :

They are holding in the north but not in the south.
The collapse of Donetsk city front began in june-august 2022.

Donetsk was a secondary frontline. Russia took Krasnohorivka north of Avdiivka, bypassing the defenses east of the town.
They entered Pisky, Opytne and Vodyane because there were not enough men there. Image
I've been monitoring a few indicators to understand both russian objective and ukrainian defensive war :

-Fortifications
-Armoured/tank losses
-direction of progress
-bombing

For example, here is a Planet image from the 21st, showing a lot of russian bombing north of Novohrodivka. This suggest they are currently stopped and they are trying to destroy ukrainian positions along the railway before resuming their progress.Image
This is the end of the thread. The overall situation is more or less stable on other frontlines. A video emerged of a russian progress north of Niu York, I'm waiting for further proofs.

Russia is also closing in on Senkove in Kupiansk front (north-east).

20/20 Image
I'm also writing on other topics than Ukraine. Here is a french thread on the Sudan civil war, which is very difficult but very interesting to understand :

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More from @clement_molin

Oct 26
A El Fasher dans l'ouest du #Soudan 🇸🇩, les FSR s'emparent de la base de la 6ème division, encerclée depuis 2 ans.

Des milliers de civils, principalement des Zaghawas (noirs) réfugiés dans la ville fuient vers le désert, poursuivis par les FSR (arabes).

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️
El Fasher, 4ème (?) plus grande ville du Soudan, capitale de l'ouest du pays était la dernière ville a résister aux forces de soutien rapide, les FSR.

A l'intérieur, en plus des habitants traditionnels, des réfugiés des guerres précédentes, environ 1.5 millions d'habitants.
Les FSR sont une milice arabe du Darfour (l'ouest du Soudan). Ils se battent depuis la fin des années 1990 contre les peuples africains du Darfour, dont les Fur, Zafgawas et Massalit.

Depuis 2023, les FSR tentent de renverser le pouvoir à Khartoum en se battant contre l'armée. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 25
Russian 🇷🇺 soldiers have been sighted in the center of Pokrovsk, a strategic city in the east of Ukraine 🇺🇦

After months of infiltration, russian troops are threatening to capture two of the last 7 big cities of Donbas, while they started entering a 3rd one.

🧵THREAD🧵1/21 ⬇️Image
While ukrainians are cheering for an undeniable victory, the pushed back Dobropilla breakthrough and the liberation of Kucheriv Yar village, stopping months of threat on Kramatorsk, russian infantry was sighted in the city center of Pokrovsk. Image
Pokrovsk is not a random city. It is the western entrance of Donbas (a populated, mining and industrial eastern region of Ukraine).

Once a strategic railway and road hub for ukrainian forces in Donetsk direction it is now since a year the hot spot of the war. Image
Read 21 tweets
Oct 14
For the first time in months, Russia 🇷🇺 launched tanks and armoured vehicles in Ukraine 🇺🇦

2 years after the large scale Avdiivka offensive, russian forces tried to storm the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka area of the frontline, losing around 30 armoured vehicles.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️Image
The main use of tanks, IFV and AFV was during the Avdiivka-Donestk offensive, mainly between october 2023 and may 2024.

Then, it was slowly abandonned. Since the first months of 2025, the use of armoured vehicles nearly disappeared. Image
Why ?

Because Russia was slowly lacking reserves in armoured vehicles and drone warfare was making their use more and more dangerous.

Most of them have been put away from the front during months and endured some changes. Image
Read 16 tweets
Oct 10
A quoi ressemble la guerre en Ukraine en 2025, avec des photos et des vidéos ?

Sur cette vidéo, 4 drones russes 🇷🇺 frappent en 1 minute un blindé ukrainien 🇺🇦 abandonné, deux n'explosent pas.

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️
J'ai compilé pour vous une vingtaine de vidéos et de photos, les moins sales (la plupart sont absolument horrible, avec des soldats qui agonisent) pour montrer une réalité de la guerre qu'on ne montre plus.

Ici, les drones russes qui attendent leur cible sur le côté de la route.
Un combat constant contre les drones kamikazes FPV.

Sur la vidéo, ce soldat ukrainien se bat contre plusieurs drones kamikazes russes, en détruisant plusieurs. La priorité désormais, regarder vers le ciel.
Read 23 tweets
Oct 8
L'Asie Centrale 🇰🇿🇺🇿🇹🇯🇹🇲🇰🇬 s'éloigne de Moscou 🇷🇺

Alors que se tient le 12ème sommet de l'organisation des Etats Turciques 🇹🇷 en Azerbaïdjan, les pays centrasiatiques prouvent une fois de plus leur éloignement avec la Russie.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
Depuis 2022, l’Asie centrale amorce un tournant géopolitique majeur.

Longtemps dans le giron russe, la région s’émancipe progressivement de Moscou. Cet éloignement n’est ni brutal ni uniforme, mais il est désormais irréversible. Image
La guerre en Ukraine a agi comme un catalyseur.

Pour les dirigeants centrasiatiques de l'ex URSS, la Russie n’est plus un garant de stabilité, mais un facteur d’incertitude.

Dès lors, la priorité devient l’autonomie stratégique et la diversification des partenariats. Image
Read 21 tweets
Oct 6
*123 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers got killed in 2025 in Ukraine 🇺🇦, more than the french 🇫🇷 ground forces.

In total, 281 550 russian soldiers were lost in 2025 as per leaked report. It includes 123 000 killed and missing and 158 529 wounded.

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️Image
These leaked documents were initially shared by this account @hochuzhit_com which provided these two pictures.

*I don't know about the source which seems controversial but the data seems veracious since it is close to other data collected by Mediazona, the Ukrainian General Staff and independent analysts.

There is high possibility this can be a propaganda operation, but the data can still be used.Image
Image
The document is giving few interesting insights on the state of russian forces. With 83 000 killed, it's close to the Mediazona count (54 000 in August with verified data).

It is also giving data on particular units and different sectors.
Read 25 tweets

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