Taking stock of 2,5+ years of Russia’s war against Ukraine:
- Western leaders have successfully avoided nuclear war
- but made the war in Ukraine a world-order changing event, which it didn’t necessarily have to be
- and made nuclear proliferation more likely in the future
- Western leaders have successfully avoided nuclear war
- but made the war in Ukraine a world-order changing event, which it didn’t necessarily have to be
- and made nuclear proliferation more likely in the future
The West’s incremental strategy has enabled Russia to gather support from China, North Korea and Iran who were more hesitant in the beginning. They are now building the BRICS+ alternative, which can become serious competition to the western-led international order.
Thanks to this dynamic, both Iran and North Korea are less isolated now than pre-2022. Iran might very well reconsider the costs (which seem pretty low) and benefits (which seem high, given that Russia was able to coerce the West into indecision) of crossing the nuclear threshold
Russia has been able to reconstitute its military and gear up production faster than was assumed, thanks to the coalition of partners it now has.
China probably profits the most, with the U.S. also dragged back in into the Middle East and unable to focus its strategy.
China probably profits the most, with the U.S. also dragged back in into the Middle East and unable to focus its strategy.
Meanwhile, in spite of western leaders’ “personal convictions” about deep strikes, Ukraine is hitting ammunition depots hundreds of km into Russian territory. No thanks to its western partners.
More details about how all this is panning out in this thread, with quotes from @TheEconomist
https://twitter.com/hoanssolo/status/1838277386678518195
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