1/ 🚨 “Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.”
news.gallup.com/poll/651092/20…
news.gallup.com/poll/651092/20…
2/ “Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”
3/ “More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter”
4/ “Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020.
In years when the advantage was narrower -- 2004 and 2016, for example -- Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote.”
In years when the advantage was narrower -- 2004 and 2016, for example -- Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote.”
5/ “By 46% to 41%, Americans say the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they think is the most important problem facing the country. The top issues Americans currently name as the most important are ones that tend to favor the GOP, including the economy (24%), immigration (22%), the government (17%) and inflation (15%).”
6/ “This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948. The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but three presidential elections since that year.
The question was not asked in 2000, and the two parties tied in 1980, when inflation was the top issue.
The only time the measure was out of sync with the outcome was in 1948.”
The question was not asked in 2000, and the two parties tied in 1980, when inflation was the top issue.
The only time the measure was out of sync with the outcome was in 1948.”
7/ “Americans currently give the Republican Party a six-percentage-point edge, 50% to 44%, as the party they think would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous. Gallup has asked this question since 1951. In 16 presidential elections since then when one party has had at least a minimal advantage on this measure, that party has won 12 times. The exceptions were 1952, 1968, 1980 and 2000.”
8/ “Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is currently at -28, indicating Americans’ attitudes about the economy are negative, on balance. The rating is derived from the 22% of Americans describing current economic conditions as “excellent” or “good” versus the 48% saying they are “poor,” and the 32% believing the economy is “getting better” versus the 62% saying it is “getting worse.””
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