auonsson Profile picture
Sep 25, 2024 20 tweets 7 min read Read on X
RUBY, infamous for repeating cycles of breaking down and working fine and ran out of Tromsö, NO on safety grounds, loaded with 20k tons ammonium nitrate is closing on heavily trafficked Dover Strait.

She has made good speed, straight course and precise turns last 36h.
Image
Image
Story is that her hull, rudder and propeller are broken to some extent and she needs repairs.

Her flag state is Malta and that is her stated destination. But Malta has signalled she wont even be allowed into territorial waters. Image
This was the state of her rudder and propulsion just a few days ago. Image
Opinion: I think this situation has seen some really bad handling.

Not only was a potential hybrid threat handled poorly with dockings and transits next to population centres, military bases and critical infra.


The more likely case, a ship and crew in an emergency, has also been neglected. And she keeps on steaming, with an ever present risk. No matter if we speak potential nefarious motives or just a ecological, collision risks.

Fair winds , RUBY.
She has two Malta-flagged tugs right behind her. Circled blue icons.


Image
Shady movements fertilizer ship RUBY has turned towards Thames / London. She is slowing down atm, but just 4 km shy of crossing into UK territorial waters.

Her last hours of travel look fine from AIS, but she has damages. She is loaded with 20k tons potentially explosive NH4NO3. Image
RUBY's course in relation to the fairway she was travelling along an hour ago. Dashed purple line my edit. Image
Mistake above: it should be 5.3 kilometers to UK, I made a mistake measuring.
AMBER II has changed destination to Rotterdam, Netherlands. Aka Europes top port.

AMBER II is RUBY's assisting tug who has been with her since Tromsö, partly also towing her. Image
"Testing 1,2,3. Are the anglosaxians reacting yet?" Image
RUBY has stopped 3 km from the border of UK, about 120 km from London, 0 km from one of or may the busiest shipping lane in the world. Image
There is a low pressure system with high winds passing. This is a good explanation for RUBY seeking shelter. If this is the reason UK has a new visitor til about Saturday. Image
Have not seen anything interesting on AIS during day.

RUBY is close to stationary and with 20 knots wind I think she might be running engine? Not anchored.

Her tug, AMBER II is driving around slowly and just drove to 1128 m from UK.

No sign of Royal Navy =)
Image
Image
With winds moving in RUBY was left to her own devices 3h ago when her tug AMBER II took of, broadcasting Rotterdam as both destination and origin, the latter being false.

RUBY was ordered to have a tug by her side by NO authorities and given her condition that is likely well.
3 temporary safety certificates with due date Sep 25 was issued by NO authorities and not renewed.

I am not sure what that means legally. Out of insurance? Less obligations? Nothing?

Would be nice if someone knowledgeable chipped in.
It is also interesting to note how close other ships move to RUBY.
DK authorities advised "widest possible berth" in their navigational warning a few days ago.

Cruise ships, freighters and tanker alike. Just now a tanker even stopped close by (might be fuel for RUBY) Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with auonsson

auonsson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @auonsson

Feb 15
There is an estimated 1 in 10k-100k years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks are coincidental.
Data is hard to get by but no matter which real data or reasonable assumption one picks it is very unlikely all 8 of them are explained by chance.
🧵 Image
Illustration of a 1 in 108 908 years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks happens with present background levels. Above is 1 in 10 609 years illustrated. Image
Two alternative ways of illustrating the extremely low probability of the Baltic Cable breaks being normal. Red dots in each, promise! Image
Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 19
Washington Post has again managed to find anon sources saying Russia is not doing bad things in the Baltic Sea.

They got the infographic quite wrong, so I fixed it.

They also have a named source, within mil intel, completely contradicting their headline.

Nice one WaPo! Image
Image
Washington Post today presented a wholly incomplete infographics on Baltic Sea infrastructure incidents.

Actually damaged structures: 13, presented by WaPo as 4-5.

Actual # incidents: 4, WaPo found 3.

Here is the fix. Image
According to WaPo and their anons "there is an emerging consensus that it is all accidents"

Yet officials in actual positions are ordering very expensive and resource intensive mission as we speak.

Article archived: archive.is/7JcKG
Read 9 tweets
Jan 14
'If something were to happen Denmark might have to answer to why JAZZ was not boarded and inspected'

Experts agree: Denmark should inspect broken tanker JAZZ. No one thinks they will

Naval officer, maritime law scholar + analyst says 'Do it'

DK authorities: no reply. URL👇 Image
Original link: danwatch.dk/skyggeskib-bro…
Archive-link: archive.is/0nGfY
"Of course three propulsion breakdowns should lead to a port state control" says professor of maritime law Cossen in the article.

JAZZ is loaded with 50k ton oil and has serious issues with her machinery. Broke down thrice last 14 days and needed tug assistance once.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 4, 2024
Excited intel bots project:

Leading online authorities on shipping, @johnkonrad & @mercoglianos, are popular targets in the network of intel bots I am looking into.

Bots are mainly agreeing and praising, but sometimes seemingly nudging them in other direction. Hard to say from limited material.Image
Some example posts:
1 Snarky
2 Strong agree
3 Poor bot cant sleep

In total the bots I found have posted or quoted John and Sal 69 times, but that is likely just a fraction of the total. Image
Image
Image
Full text of all replies and quotes with datetimes and urls from excited intel bots to @johnkonrad and @mercoglianos in this csv.

Not complete, there is likely much more. Eventually I will release all posts I have found and the metadata/relation data.

pastequest.com/?767a9ebaf875c…
Read 7 tweets
Nov 2, 2024
I have identified 28 bots targeting intel/mil/geopol/logistics/energy people. They reply, follow and quote and are most often very enthusiastic.

End game is unknown, but a guess is recruitment or information gathering. Maybe just influence.

Anyway, here they are, in network shape.Image
Some of the texts the excited intel-bots produce and post to other users.

Will eventually be released in a more sane format.
In this thread I started collecting the excited intel-bots. Lots of examples of what they post and how I differentiate them.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 26, 2024
This US Super Hercules transport landing in Denmark from US base Rota in Spain avoided French air space to Denmark. (But not *to* Rota)

Previous days it has visited among other places Rammstein, Aviano, Incirlik, Akrotiri.

What are you shipping around? Previous days, next tweet.Image
23 Rammstein, DE/US - Aviano, IT - Incirlik, TR
24 Incirlik, TR ? Akrotiri, CY ? Rammstein, DE/US
25 Rammstein, DE/US - Tartu, EE ? Vilnius, LV - Rammstein, DE/US MEDEVAC
26 Rammstein, DE/US - Rota, ES/US- Aalborg, DK

19-5945 / AE6960
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae6960&l…Image
Image
Image
Image
More similar problems but for a civilian flight. Maybe just an ATC production level issue?

Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(