RUBY, infamous for repeating cycles of breaking down and working fine and ran out of Tromsö, NO on safety grounds, loaded with 20k tons ammonium nitrate is closing on heavily trafficked Dover Strait.
She has made good speed, straight course and precise turns last 36h.
Story is that her hull, rudder and propeller are broken to some extent and she needs repairs.
Her flag state is Malta and that is her stated destination. But Malta has signalled she wont even be allowed into territorial waters.
This was the state of her rudder and propulsion just a few days ago.
Opinion: I think this situation has seen some really bad handling.
Not only was a potential hybrid threat handled poorly with dockings and transits next to population centres, military bases and critical infra.
The more likely case, a ship and crew in an emergency, has also been neglected. And she keeps on steaming, with an ever present risk. No matter if we speak potential nefarious motives or just a ecological, collision risks.
Fair winds , RUBY.
She has two Malta-flagged tugs right behind her. Circled blue icons.
Shady movements fertilizer ship RUBY has turned towards Thames / London. She is slowing down atm, but just 4 km shy of crossing into UK territorial waters.
Her last hours of travel look fine from AIS, but she has damages. She is loaded with 20k tons potentially explosive NH4NO3.
RUBY's course in relation to the fairway she was travelling along an hour ago. Dashed purple line my edit.
Mistake above: it should be 5.3 kilometers to UK, I made a mistake measuring.
AMBER II has changed destination to Rotterdam, Netherlands. Aka Europes top port.
AMBER II is RUBY's assisting tug who has been with her since Tromsö, partly also towing her.
"Testing 1,2,3. Are the anglosaxians reacting yet?"
RUBY has stopped 3 km from the border of UK, about 120 km from London, 0 km from one of or may the busiest shipping lane in the world.
There is a low pressure system with high winds passing. This is a good explanation for RUBY seeking shelter. If this is the reason UK has a new visitor til about Saturday.
Have not seen anything interesting on AIS during day.
RUBY is close to stationary and with 20 knots wind I think she might be running engine? Not anchored.
Her tug, AMBER II is driving around slowly and just drove to 1128 m from UK.
With winds moving in RUBY was left to her own devices 3h ago when her tug AMBER II took of, broadcasting Rotterdam as both destination and origin, the latter being false.
RUBY was ordered to have a tug by her side by NO authorities and given her condition that is likely well.
3 temporary safety certificates with due date Sep 25 was issued by NO authorities and not renewed.
I am not sure what that means legally. Out of insurance? Less obligations? Nothing?
Would be nice if someone knowledgeable chipped in.
It is also interesting to note how close other ships move to RUBY.
DK authorities advised "widest possible berth" in their navigational warning a few days ago.
Cruise ships, freighters and tanker alike. Just now a tanker even stopped close by (might be fuel for RUBY)
Estonian public service news @errnews claims that fertilizer ship RUBY is looking to dump its cargo of ammonium nitrate in the sea, citing NO maritime authority. @Sjofartsdir .
This is incorrect. RUBY is looking to unload. Src: direct contact.
RUBY is still stationary at the entrance of Skagerak. Nothing is going on judging from AIS-replay. RUBY is drifting and assistant tug AMBER II is driving around, very slowly.
@The_Lookout_N , whom I respect greatly, has an opinion slightly differing from mine:
Since midnight RUBY has drifted 7 NMi to northeast while her tug has been driving around very slowly.
Aside from a Turkish warship (greenish track) passing closely last night nothing exciting is found in AIS-replays.
NO coast guard is there since last night, but 30 NMi away.
Why do I care about bomb/fertilizer ship RUBY and why should you?
My profession is not shipping nor mil/intel. But my everyday work is doing risk-rewards analysis based on science and often incomplete data with high stakes cases.
Quite similar to RUBY-situation. Mini-thread.
I find the likelyhood of RUBY being a Russian bomb plot very low and other risks (ecological, collision, etc) a bit higher.
But, the consequences if bomb plot is there and it went off in a city would be unfathomable. Including a large war.
Given those two variables the only sane thing is to seek less risky solutions to the problem. I want our governments to do that.
RUBY, cargo ship loaded with 20k tons of potentially highly explosive ammonium nitrate, with a shady Russian backstory, is anchored on Norways northeast coast.
This is some of the surrounding installations around her. Positions appr.