Joni Askola Profile picture
Sep 25, 2024 26 tweets 10 min read Read on X
1/25 In a world where Realism has been compromised by the deceitful and treacherous views of scholars like John Mearsheimer, there is an urgent need for more Neo-idealism. Image
2/25 Realism today has been largely co-opted by figures like Mearsheimer. Although a respected scholar, Mearsheimer has made increasingly questionable statements that contradict his own theory to defend russia. He also aligns more with neorealism than classical realism. Image
3/25 Neorealism has surpassed classical realism in prominence. It suggests that countries—particularly great powers—operate as black boxes, each seeking to increase their strength relative to others in an anarchic world devoid of a higher authority to resolve conflicts. Image
4/25 In this context, great powers are the key actors seeking to become the strongest in the system, aiming for regional hegemony without nearby threats. Once achieved, they will do everything possible to prevent the rise of another regional hegemon globally. Image
5/25 The common arguments used by people like Mearsheimer contain significant logical flaws, not only ideologically but—more importantly—within the very theory these individuals use to support their claims. Image
6/25 One of Mearsheimer's most astonishing statements is that, according to him, "there is no evidence" that russia has imperial ambitions or desires to conquer Ukrainian territory. Image
7/25 Claiming that russia has no imperial or expansionist ambitions during the ongoing war is similar to saying that Germany had none in the fall of 1939 or 1940. It is clear that russia aims to keep Ukraine within its 'sphere of influence' and exert control over it. Image
8/25 Realism does not grant great powers the right to expand their sphere of influence at will. A common misconception is that russia's interests and demands should all be respected, meaning its effective veto over Ukraine's NATO membership should be considered. Image
9/25 The US and the West as a whole have been, in fact, acting in accordance with this theory in many ways, even if Mearsheimer does not acknowledge it due to being either a useful idiot or a russian asset. Image
10/25 Claiming the war is the West's "fault" due to NATO expansion ironically contradicts realism. From this perspective, the West is not to blame for following the theory's predictions—strengthening its influence over a minor power while weakening russia. Image
11/25 From the perspective of great power competition, the US and NATO's decision to strengthen ties with Ukraine and open NATO's doors was entirely logical. Image
12/25 russia initiated the conflict, not NATO or Ukraine, which were merely seeking security. Mearsheimer's argument is like blaming someone for wanting to set an alarm system to protect their jewelry; while the jewelry may attract burglars, the blame truly lies with the burglar Image
13/25 russia's perception of NATO as a threat doesn't obligate others to comply with its demands. The true threat for Putin lies in former Warsaw Pact countries thriving economically and securely, which endangers the russian regime, not the russian nation. Image
14/25 Mearsheimer also wrongly assumes russia would join the US against china, bolstering US power. Conversely, a US withdrawal from Europe would, per the theory, enhance russia's relative power, incentivizing more aggressive actions in Europe. Image
15/25 The paradox and irony of the narrative lie in the fact that, from a realistic standpoint, the US and the West as a whole are acting as they should by seizing the chance to weaken russia without resorting to military action or deploying American soldiers. Image
16/25 Mearsheimer fell victim to his theory, twisting it to fit his pro-russian narrative. According to realism, the US and the West are acting as predicted by seeking to weaken russia and curb its rise as a regional power in Europe. Image
17/25 When evidence is lacking, societal benefits are low, and the outcomes are grave—such as legitimizing a criminal invasion—academics like Mearsheimer should rethink the topics they choose for their global lectures. Image
18/25 While neorealist figures like Mearsheimer have distorted realism to defend russia's actions, alternative approaches like neo-idealism are gaining prominence. The approach was introduced by @bctallis. Image
19/25 Neo-Idealism is a fresh approach to (geo)politics that is inspired by the strong reactions to russian aggression from leaders like @Zelenskyy_Uaa, @kajakallas, @MarinSanna, @GLandsbergis, @JanLipavsky, and others. Image
20/25 Neo-idealism is a morally grounded approach to geopolitical interests that emphasizes the rights of all democratic states, including smaller nations, to self-determination—such as their ability to join integration spheres and reject spheres of influence. Image
21/25 In contrast to classical realism's focus on power and national interest, neo-idealism argues that moral values and ethical principles should guide international relations, encouraging states to promote global justice and peace alongside their self-interest. Image
22/25 This approach entails costs, yet neo-idealists are resolute in recognizing the price of freedom and are willing to pay it. Even if liberal values have been imperfectly upheld in their nations, they see these values as worth defending and renewing. Image
23/25 Neo-idealists recognize that a liberal order cannot survive without the means to defend itself, including military capabilities. However, without a strong moral foundation or the promise of progress, it cannot truly thrive. Image
24/25 Neo-idealism signals a shift toward an ethically grounded view of international relations, emphasizing cooperation, human rights, and moral considerations to promote a just and peaceful world through state collaboration and international institutions. Image
@Zelenskyy_Uaa @kajakallas @MarinSanna @GLandsbergis @JanLipavsky I tagged the wrong account for @ZelenskyyUa 😅

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More from @joni_askola

Feb 2
1/11 The war is far from over, but Ukraine is still winning.

Here is how we can make sure that it defeats Russia 🧵 Image
2/11 Russia’s 2022 invasion is a genocide.

They use genocidal rhetoric to justify erasing Ukraine's identity. They kidnap children and commit daily war crimes to punish civilians for simply refusing to be Russian.

This is a systematic attempt to destroy a nation Image
3/11 The human cost is massive.

In Mariupol, the death toll in 3 months potentially exceeded the total deaths in Gaza throughout the entire war, despite a much smaller population.

People underestimate this scale and don't see that Russia is committing genocide in Europe Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 23
1/12 “Value-Based Realism” was a major theme at Davos.

It is being sold by Stubb and Carney as a smart, pragmatic path for the West, but I think it is a strategic trap.

Here is why this new realism might actually lead to managed decline 🧵 Image
2/12 The concept is the latest intellectual fashion.

@alexstubb and @MarkJCarney are pushing it as the ultimate manual for "middle powers" like Canada, the UK, and the EU.

It sounds sophisticated to be principled yet pragmatic, but we need to look a bit closer Image
3/12 The logic is simple: stop waiting for a perfect world and deal with the brutal one we have.

It is an honest description of how we behave right now, post-Biden.

That is exactly the problem.

It takes our current failure of will and rebrands it as a high-level strategy Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 21
1/5 Europe needs a reality check.

The strategies that worked during Trump's first term are useless now.

We tried playing nice, and it failed.

It is high time to stop the appeasement and start facing reality Image
2/5 The time for Europeans to appease Trump is over.

We have spent the last year watching our tactics from "Trump 1" fail miserably in "Trump 2."

Flattery and silence do not work anymore.

He sees them as weakness, not respect Image
3/5 Trump lives in a bubble of total confirmation.

He is surrounded by sycophants who are too afraid to tell him the truth or challenge his worst impulses.

Because no one in his inner circle dares to confront him, he believes he can bully Europe without consequence Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
1/8 Europe is sleepwalking into a forever war because we are too afraid to actually win.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start ending it.

Here is how 🧵 Image
2/8 Europe has the power to end the war in Ukraine much faster but it requires a total shift in strategy.

We need to stop managing the conflict and start winning it.

Here is the roadmap to force a Russian collapse👇 Image
3/8 We must help Ukraine scale its domestic defense industry in every possible way.

This means direct funding and technical advice.

A Ukraine that can build its own weapons is a Ukraine that can sustain the fight without relying solely on foreign logistics Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 15
1/7 Trump is no isolationist:

He is a show interventionist, a cowardly form of imperialist interventionism that is also meant to entertain the world Image
2/7 Trump's entire campaign was built on the lie that he would end wars and stop regime change operations.

It has been a year since he promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and the fighting continues Image
3/7 While he appointed isolationists to his administration, his actions tell a different story.

He claims to have ended eight wars but he hasn't ended any. In reality it looks more likely that he will start eight new ones before his term is over Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 13
1/8 Why JD Vance is a greater threat to the American experiment than Donald Trump.

A thread on the Dark Enlightenment, eyeliner, and the end of the West🧵 Image
2/8 Trump may be the worst and most traitorous president in US history, but JD Vance is a far more calculated threat.

Trump is erratic. Vance is a disciplined, smart, and well-organized opportunist ready to dismantle democracy with precision Image
3/8 The PayPal Mafia has one foot in the White House door by installing Vance. Tech oligarch Peter Thiel effectively owns him.

Their goal is clear: move Vance into the presidency to serve their personal interests and finish the job Image
Read 8 tweets

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