Andreas Umland Profile picture
Sep 26 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
SHORT THREAD ON MOSCOW'S ANNOUNCED CHANGE OF RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

This is a psychological PR operation, by the Kremlin, without much substance. It is designed to scare leaders & voters of countries supporting Ukraine.

/1


@MoscowTimes @SCEEUS_UI
themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/25/put…
Ukraine has, for more than 2 years, attacked Russian military targets on 5 occupied Ukrainian territories that are - after the annexations of 2014 & 2022 - official Russian state territory, according to Russia's Constitution: Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia & Kherson.

/2
More recently, Ukraine has attacked numerous military and industrial targets on Russia's legitimate state territory. There was even, at least, one drone flying into the Kremlin itself. Some of these attacks had impressive results.

/3
The massive Ukrainian attacks on both illegitimate & legitimate Russian state territory since 2022 could have been interpreted, by the Kremlin, as cases "of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened."

/4
This provision of the Russian military doctrine is valid since 2010. Accordingly, Putin & Co. have many times since 2014 indicated their readiness to use nuclear weapons in retaliation to resistance to Russia's territorial expansion into Ukraine with conventional weaponry.

/5
The existing Russian military doctrine allows Moscow to use nuclear weapons in response to attacks, with conventional weapons only. The phrase "very existence of the Russian state" could have been interpreted to mean the inviolability of its borders, security of airspace etc.

/6
Russia's nuclear doctrine allowing use of atomic weapons in response to attacks with conventional armory has been reaffirmed in the 2020 "Foundations of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence" approved by Russian Presidential Decree No. 355.

/7
No wonder that Russian politicians and propagandists have been voicing nuclear threats against numerous countries, on a monthly basis since 2022. Yet, no nuclear weaponry has been employed - neither in Ukraine nor elsewhere.

/8
Russian oral or written announcements on the use of nuclear weapons are not previews of actual actions. They constitute a ruthless psychological warfare to subvert Ukraine’s self-defense. Putin’s announcement of changes in the Russian military doctrine is part of this game.

/9
A Russian decision to use nuclear weapons would be guided less by doctrinal documents than by power political considerations. If the Kremlin thinks using weapons of mass destruction will increase its power, it will do so - independently of any Russian official texts on this.

/10
Western and other states interested in avoiding Russia's use of WMDs should make sure that the Kremlin does not think that it can get away with such a grave escalation of its already genocidal attack on Ukraine.

/END
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More from @UmlandAndreas

Sep 24
Short interview on 2nd Peace Summit and Russia:

1. Recently, the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany stated that a Kremlin official should participate in the second Peace Summit. Under what conditions would the Russian Federation agree to such a decision?

/1

@SCEEUS_UIImage
Andreas Umland: For now, Russia has rejected the invitation. The crucial factor may be the position of China. Normally, the Kremlin would not consider any multilateral initiative by Ukraine, but if Beijing decides to go, Moscow may have no other choice than to appear too.

/2
2. Under what conditions, in case the Russian Federation refuses to discuss the peace formula proposed at the summit, can it be effective? What, in essence, can be its effectiveness on the scale of minimum and maximum?

/3
Read 9 tweets
Aug 25
Honored by Garry @Kasparov63's deliberations, with reference to my @TheNatlInterest article about the global dimensions of Ukraine's freedom fight for:

- the international rules-based order,

- reignition of worldwide democratization, and

- general human progress & development.
On a personal note:

@Kasparov63 was already my idol as a schoolboy when I was actively playing chess & followed with awe the 48 matches of the Sep 1984-Febr 1985 #WorldChessChampionship between him & @anatolykarpov which ended with NOTHING as @FIDE_chess aborted the tournament.
@Kasparov63 @anatolykarpov @FIDE_chess A few months later, as all chess players know, 22-year old @Kasparov63 became the world's youngest chess champion by finally beating @AnatolyKarpov2. The following years @KasparovGarry defended thrice his title against @anatolychess77. The 2 men's struggle was epic, at the time.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 15
THREAD ON CHINA'S (AND OTHER CONTRIES') CONTINUED MISUNDERSTANDING OF

- NATO'S ROLE IN EASTERN EUROPE,

-MOSCOW'S PERCEPTION OF NATO ENLARGEMENT, AND

- THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION OF TERRITORIES OF UKRAINE (AS WELL AS NEUTRAL MOLDOVA AND TINY GEORGIA)

/1

reuters.com/world/planned-…
Explanations of Beijing & other capitals for their officially neutral positions on the Russo-Ukrainian War continue to refer to the vagaries of NATO's enlargement since 1999. Supposedly, Russia merely reacted to this process, with its ever more aggressive assault on Ukraine.

/2
Yet, the Chinese & similar understanding or/and presentations of the issue ignore the actual course of NATO's eastward move and Russia's material reaction to - rather than rhetorical acrobatics on - it. Counterintuitively, Moscow was & is relaxed about NATO's enlargement.

/3
Read 18 tweets
Apr 16
Kurze Antworten zu Fragen einer Journalistin betreffs Wechselwirkungen zwischen Russisch-Ukrainischem Krieg & Eskalation im Nahen Osten:

a) Sollte die Lage zwischen der Islamischen Republik und Israel weiter eskalieren, wie könnte sich das auf den Ukraine-Krieg auswirken?

/1 Image
Über konkrete Auswirkungen lässt sich nur spekulieren, da die genaue Positionierung von Drittländern zu solch einer Eskalation noch offen ist. Was sich heute abzeichnet, ist ein neuer Kalter Krieg mit heißen Regionalkonflikten zwischen Demokratien & Autokratien im 21. Jhd.

/2
b) Zudem stellt sich die Frage, ob und wie Russland seinem Freund zur Hilfe eilen würde, sollte die Lage zwischen Iran und Israel weiter eskalieren?

Das ist eine knifflige Frage. Traditionell war das Verhältnis zwischen dem postsowjetischen Russland und Israel relativ gut.

/3
Read 9 tweets
Apr 5
THREAD on Lenin, Putin & Anti-Colonialism

Learning today, in a discussion on India and the Russo-Ukrainian War, that misunderstanding of current Russian colonialism/"anti-colonialism" has a lot to do with world-wide remembrance of Lenin's support for anti-colonial struggle. /1 Image
Yet, Putin took an explicitly anti-Leninist position in February 2022, justifying the full-scale invasion: "As a result of Bolshevik policy, Soviet Ukraine arose, which even today can with good reason be called 'Vladimir Ilyich Lenin's Ukraine'. He is its author & architect." /2
"This is fully confirmed by archive documents ... And now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call decommunisation. Do you want decommunisation? Well, that suits us just fine." /3
Read 5 tweets
Mar 6
Moscow is currently arming up on a large scale, and will use its new weapons outside Russia. If we do not get our act together, the post-1945 national state system and international legal order are over.

.../1
facebook.com/share/v/tRoPZj…
If Russia manages to lastingly extend its borders & eliminate the Ukrainian nation, other stronger states will try to repeat in their neighborhood Putin’s trick. The weaker states will do everything - including acquisition of WMDs - to avoid Ukraine's fate.

/2


#StandWithUkraine
The world will again become a madhouse and jungle - yet with far more destructive potential than before 1945.

/END

@SCEEUS_UI @rightsinrussia @GSPSipo @BAKS_Bund @Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia @DGO_Berlin @IDMVienna @DUF_Forum @Biz_Ukraine_Mag @UkraineKompakt @StimmeUkraine
Read 4 tweets

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