THREAD

Couldn’t 26 EU member countries simply announce an end of the 2009 #LisbonTreaty, and concurrently sign an identical agreement, but without Hungary (...as well as perhaps offer the UK to renew its 2007 signature)?

/1 Obviously, this would be a legal and procedural challenge.
Yet, Hungary has been outside European integration for some time now.

Budapest is becoming an anti-Brussels Trojan horse tasked to...

/2

As the second #TrumpPresidency’s foreign & domestic policies are becoming more disruptive by the week, one can - from a Kyiv perspective - not help but see certain similarities with the #YanukovychPresidency of 2010-14 & notice the role of #PaulManafort in both developments.

1 The back & forth in Trump's & Yanukovych's rises (Yanukovych was prime-minister in 2002-4 & 2006-7), their attempts to capture power by illegal means & convictions by courts, the prominent roles of oligarchs in their entourage & Manafort's involvements are strikingly similar.

2

20 years ago, on this day, #VictorYushchenko was inaugurated as Ukraine's third President. Though coming from the North-East Ukrainian Oblast Sumy, on the border to Russia, President Yushchenko played in 2005-10 a crucial role in starting Ukraine's integration with the West.

/1 In 2007, Ukraine started negotiating an Association Agreement with the EU which have led this year to the start of accession talks. In 2008, Ukraine received a membership perspective from NATO. Both NATO & EU membership are today supported by the vast majority of Ukrainians.

/2

THREAD

Among achievements this year were four #TheNationalInterest articles based on several #SCEEUS reports arguing that a Ukrainian victory as well as stable and just peace in Eastern Europe will be:

/1

@SCEEUS_UI @ResearchUI @UISweden @UF_Sverige @TheNatlInterest @CFTNI
(a) very difficult to secure as they are currently impossible to be obtained via diplomacy only (February 2024):

/2

@TheNatlInterest @CFTNInationalinterest.org/feature/why-di…

Thread on a @UChicagoPoliSci professor:

One explanation why @MearsheimerJ agreed to debate Russian dilettante scholar & crypto-fascist #AleksandrDugin may have been that Mearsheimer's own hyped academic publications are of low analytic quality & questionable cognitive value.

/1

https://twitter.com/MagaPrimary2026/status/1871076240997941419

Have read #JohnMearsheimer's books "The Great Delusion" & "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics," and several of his articles. His texts have partly amused me, but I learned only little. Do not understand why Mearsheimer is respected, translated & quoted as much as he is.

/2

Нарешті - міжнародне визнання! Рецензія "Спокійне Різдво у Швейцарії? Ні! Там теж панують розпалювачі війни!" на проросійському швейцарському сайті "#GlobalBridge" сьогодні про мою вчорашню статтю у @NZZ ("Нова Цюріхська Газета"):

1/4

@SCEEUS_UI @TartuUTUC @Ukrainki_UA @NZZ @SCEEUS_UI @TartuUTUC @Ukrainki_UA @Ukrinform_deu @Swiss4Ukraine23 @SwissUA @sura_agency @UkraineKompakt @UKRinCHE @UkraineworldD @StopFakeDE @DerDuod @DUF_Forum "'Neue Zürcher Zeitung', протягом десятиліть так звана інтелігентська газета Швейцарії, відома тим, що щодня публікує статті, спрямовані на посилення русофобії. У своєму останньому суботньому випуску, 21 грудня [2024 р.],..."

@NZZde @SWISSUKRAINE

2/4
globalbridge.ch/friedliche-wei…

THREAD

Yesterday's widely reported hits of residential houses in the Russian city of Kazan with drones remind of the mysterious explosions of several apartment buildings in various Russian cities in September 1999.

1/3 Back in 1999, there was no rationale for Chechen separatists, accused of carrying out the bombings, to mass murder randomly 307 Russian civilians. Yet, the scare after the explosions triggered the Second Chechen War which brought Putin into the presidential office in 2000.

2/3

Die gegenwärtige deutsche Verballhornung des Friedensbegriffs unter Führung des @bsw_bund & der @AfD sowie häufig unkritische Berichterstattung dieser konzeptionellen Perversion dürfte in die Geschichtsbücher als beschämende Episode im wiedervereinigten Deutschland eingehen.

/1 Womöglich wird dieser moralische Aussetzer einst als eine Art "Dritte Schuld" der Deutschen (vgl. Ralph Giordanos "Zweite Schuld") gegenüber einem der größten Opfer des Nazismus, der Ukraine, gelten.

@historikertag @VHDtweets @ge_wi_didaktik @GOsteuropa @DGO_Berlin @IGFM_DE

/2

SHORT THREAD ON MOSCOW'S ANNOUNCED CHANGE OF RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

This is a psychological PR operation, by the Kremlin, without much substance. It is designed to scare leaders & voters of countries supporting Ukraine.

/1

@MoscowTimes @SCEEUS_UI
themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/25/put… Ukraine has, for more than 2 years, attacked Russian military targets on 5 occupied Ukrainian territories that are - after the annexations of 2014 & 2022 - official Russian state territory, according to Russia's Constitution: Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia & Kherson.

/2

Short interview on 2nd Peace Summit and Russia:

1. Recently, the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany stated that a Kremlin official should participate in the second Peace Summit. Under what conditions would the Russian Federation agree to such a decision?

/1
@SCEEUS_UI Andreas Umland: For now, Russia has rejected the invitation. The crucial factor may be the position of China. Normally, the Kremlin would not consider any multilateral initiative by Ukraine, but if Beijing decides to go, Moscow may have no other choice than to appear too.

/2

Honored by Garry @Kasparov63's deliberations, with reference to my @TheNatlInterest article about the global dimensions of Ukraine's freedom fight for:

- the international rules-based order,

- reignition of worldwide democratization, and

- general human progress & development.

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1827507731974242492

On a personal note:

@Kasparov63 was already my idol as a schoolboy when I was actively playing chess & followed with awe the 48 matches of the Sep 1984-Febr 1985 #WorldChessChampionship between him & @anatolykarpov which ended with NOTHING as @FIDE_chess aborted the tournament.

THREAD ON CHINA'S (AND OTHER CONTRIES') CONTINUED MISUNDERSTANDING OF

- NATO'S ROLE IN EASTERN EUROPE,

-MOSCOW'S PERCEPTION OF NATO ENLARGEMENT, AND

- THE RUSSIAN OCCUPATION OF TERRITORIES OF UKRAINE (AS WELL AS NEUTRAL MOLDOVA AND TINY GEORGIA)

/1
reuters.com/world/planned-… Explanations of Beijing & other capitals for their officially neutral positions on the Russo-Ukrainian War continue to refer to the vagaries of NATO's enlargement since 1999. Supposedly, Russia merely reacted to this process, with its ever more aggressive assault on Ukraine.

/2

Kurze Antworten zu Fragen einer Journalistin betreffs Wechselwirkungen zwischen Russisch-Ukrainischem Krieg & Eskalation im Nahen Osten:

a) Sollte die Lage zwischen der Islamischen Republik und Israel weiter eskalieren, wie könnte sich das auf den Ukraine-Krieg auswirken?

/1 Über konkrete Auswirkungen lässt sich nur spekulieren, da die genaue Positionierung von Drittländern zu solch einer Eskalation noch offen ist. Was sich heute abzeichnet, ist ein neuer Kalter Krieg mit heißen Regionalkonflikten zwischen Demokratien & Autokratien im 21. Jhd.

/2

THREAD on Lenin, Putin & Anti-Colonialism

Learning today, in a discussion on India and the Russo-Ukrainian War, that misunderstanding of current Russian colonialism/"anti-colonialism" has a lot to do with world-wide remembrance of Lenin's support for anti-colonial struggle. /1 Yet, Putin took an explicitly anti-Leninist position in February 2022, justifying the full-scale invasion: "As a result of Bolshevik policy, Soviet Ukraine arose, which even today can with good reason be called 'Vladimir Ilyich Lenin's Ukraine'. He is its author & architect." /2

Moscow is currently arming up on a large scale, and will use its new weapons outside Russia. If we do not get our act together, the post-1945 national state system and international legal order are over.

.../1
facebook.com/share/v/tRoPZj… If Russia manages to lastingly extend its borders & eliminate the Ukrainian nation, other stronger states will try to repeat in their neighborhood Putin’s trick. The weaker states will do everything - including acquisition of WMDs - to avoid Ukraine's fate.

/2

#StandWithUkraine

Problematische Dokumentation "Ukraine: Krieg den Verrätern" heute bei @ARTEde:

Eine komplizierte Story um adäquate Kriegsführung, Kollaboration, Kriegstraumata, Nachbarschaftsfehde, Rache & Verrat, Mord & Selbstmord, Schuld & Sühne, konfligierende Narrative usw.

@ZappMM

/1 Viele aufwühlende Bilder aus den befreiten Gebieten. Thema ist allerdings, was in Zeit der Zeit vor der Befreiung während russischer Okkupation passierte oder nicht passierte.

/2

@UkraineKompakt @DUF_Forum @UA_Institute_DE @StimmeUkraine @DerDuod @Ukrainki_UA

Thread

THE BOOK SERIES "UKRAINIAN VOICES": PURPOSES OF THE PROJECT

A letter to current & future authors of the @ibidem11 series "Ukrainian Voices" (UAV).



Picture: Some UAV volumes presented by @ibidem11 at the 75th Frankfurt @Book_Fair, Oct 2023 .../1 ibidem.eu/de/reihen/gese…
@ibidem11 @Book_Fair @MarieluiseBeck @katiapylypchuk @sasha_weirdsley @OKhromeychuk @megan_buskey @AlinaNychyk @CUPPublicity @mykhed_o @UABookInstitute @AAUS_says SUMMARY: The aim of UAV is less to popularize Ukrainian matters among the general public than to support Ukrainian studies in adult education, public schools, study organizations, intellectual associations, cultural institutes, book clubs, think-tanks, universities, etc. .../2

A thought experiment on #NordStream and Ukraine - Thread

After one year of inconclusive investigations, the are many speculations about the perpetrators & principals of the attack against the defunct Nord Stream pipeline, on 26 September 2022... /1

E.g. tagesschau.de/multimedia/pod…
@Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @TerekMedia @OstAusschuss @DerDuod @Ukrinform_News @DUF_Forum @KyivDialogue @boell_secpol @BVEG_de Many journalists in Germany and elsewhere have repeatedly and extensively argued that a Ukrainian group conducted the attack on Nord Stream. Supposedly, these Ukrainians did so although the pipeline was already an industrial ruin at the time of its destruction... /2

Dies ist ein gutes @tazgezwitscher-Interview mit Mary @e_sarotte. Drei Ergänzungen:

I. Dass 1989-1990 eine #NATOOsterweiterung über die #DDR hinaus diskutiert wurde, erscheint unwahrscheiinlich... /1

CC: @VHDtweets @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @TerekMedia
taz.de/Historikerin-u… @tazgezwitscher @e_sarotte @VHDtweets @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @TerekMedia Haben Moskau und der Westen damals wirklich die Möglichkeit eines Dritten Weltkriegs der NATO zur Eroberung des Territoriums des Warschauer Vertrages im Detail diskutiert? Denn: Wie sonst hätte man sich damals eine NATO-Osterweiterung vorstellen können? .../2

CC: @DGO_Berlin

Three preliminary observations from Kyiv:

1. The so far inconclusive uprising of the #WagnerGroup illustrates once again what already became clear in the spring of 2022 near Kyiv: #VladimirPutin's state is in many respects a #PotyomkinVillage. /1

@SCEEUS_UI @rightsinrussia @SCEEUS_UI @rightsinrussia @DUF_Forum @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @LawUkrainian @TerekMedia @BritUkrAid @BrennpunktUA @krus_stern @EuromaidanPR As with other authoritarian regimes, the unity, effectiveness & functionality of one-man rule is more a projection than a political reality. /2

CC: @DUF_Forum @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @TerekMedia @ictopyk @LawUkrainian @4freerussia_org @ukrainian @BrennpunktUA @EuromaidanPress

THREAD:

An interesting policy proposal in this article by @SKaraganov in @ru_global:
He seems to suggest to throw nuclear war heads on countries that have
(a) not attacked Russian state territory, and
(b) have not even sent any troops to Ukraine. /1

globalaffairs.ru/articles/tyazh… An atomic explosion as an answer to economic sanctions, and delivering some hardware, information & training to Ukraine? Perhaps, Russia and other nuclear-weapon states could then also use nuclear threats in their regular trade relations? /2

@Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia
@ictopyk