The job and responsibility of a trader are not about winning or losing, but about strictly following the rules.
Here is a thread to help you ensure that you never break the rules again.↓ Thread 1/7
2/7 Winning and losing are not your responsibility.
Any results that arise from following the system are just part of the system.
Your job is to strictly follow the system's instructions, and your responsibility is to continue adhering to the rules.
By consistently following the rules and executing every signal the system provides, you accumulate a large number of results.
This sample size then invokes the law of large numbers, bringing out the system’s edge.
Both the wins and losses that occur from following the signals are essential.
Understand this perfectly.
3/7 If you can’t follow the rules, it's because you don’t truly understand that continuing to follow the rules leads to your success.
You place importance on the wins and losses right in front of you, believing that they lead to success.
That’s why you prioritize the immediate outcome and can’t follow the pre-determined rules.
Your understanding creates your emotions.
Emotions in trading always stem from your "understanding."
Just as a baby doesn't get angry or happy by looking at a chart, the emotions you feel here are different from the fear of thunder or darkness.
In other words, no matter how much you claim to understand the importance of following the rules, deep down, you actually believe that wins and losses are more important.
Your emotions prove it.
4/7 Many people think that if their emotions are causing them to break the rules, they should deal with those emotions.
However, emotions in trading are triggered by "understanding," so you need a different approach than dealing with ordinary, primary emotions.
That’s why I always say not to look at the emotions themselves, but rather the thought processes behind them.
And deep understanding is not just knowledge.
Deep understanding comes from experience.
Nothing will convince you more than experience.
You need to repeatedly experience that continuing to follow the rules truly leads to profits.
This is not understanding through knowledge, but "deep understanding."
When you truly stop caring about the immediate wins and losses, and you deeply understand through experience that continuing to follow the rules brings you profits and leads to success, you will begin to feel a strong aversion to breaking the rules.
Your "understanding" will have changed the emotions you experience.
5/7 Many people think that consistency will naturally follow as long as they have a system with an edge, but that’s wrong.
In an earlier thread, I showed a simulation where even an excellent system with a 70% win rate and a risk-reward ratio of 2 can still fail to increase capital over a three-month period due to short-term randomness.
If you only have data knowledge, at that point, you will begin to doubt the system, worry that the market has changed, lose consistency, and abandon the system before seeing your capital grow.
This is why I say that just knowing the data is meaningless.
Without deep understanding through experience, your emotions around immediate wins and losses won’t change, and you will continue to use wins and losses as feedback, constantly worrying and unable to maintain consistency.
6/7 Knowing the data is not enough.
Buying a successful system from someone else won’t suffice either.
Nor is it enough to simply run an automatic backtest.
Practice is something you must do yourself, and it’s something that cannot be skipped.
The reason I recommend a lot of practice with manual backtesting is that it is essential for forming conviction through experience.
Data is not something to know; it is something to "experience."
By developing deep understanding through experience, you’ll truly grasp the necessity of following the rules and make consistent actions easier.
7/7 If you find yourself restless during trading hours and wanting to do something, practice with a backtesting tool.
If you have free time this weekend, make sure to practice thoroughly.
Practice is crucial in any field, whether it’s sports, playing musical instruments, or anything else.
Think of it not as data, but as practice.
There is no improvement without practice.
Practice never ends.
Consider it something you repeat every day for years.
Many people say with satisfaction, "I’ve done 100 backtests," but please consider that it’s nowhere near enough.
I’ve been doing it every day since my student days more than 15 years ago, so I’ve done an overwhelming number of tests.
By now, the feeling of “making profits using a large sample size” is second nature.
That’s what practice is all about.
There is no world where you become a pro after just 100 practice sessions.
Keep it up.
I’m cheering for you.
When you deeply understand through experience that consistently following the rules leads to success, and it turns into conviction, you will no longer want to break the rules.
If you enjoyed this thread, please support by giving it a repost 🔁
I explain these concepts in detail in my book, so if you haven't read it yet, please do.
Link to my book ↓
Your support is what motivates me to post every day.
Thank you😊a.co/d/3i4MC0H
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Trading Full of Stimulation: Why Isn’t Your Trading Boring?😵💫🧵
There are rules, and the system’s data shows that there’s an edge, yet it’s still painful and stimulating.
Why is that? I’ll explain below. ↓ Thread 1/6
2/6 When everything you need to do is decided, trading becomes boring.
But you’re still suffering, you’re excited, and it’s not boring.
The reason is that “not everything is decided yet.”
Of course, setting rules is important, but you probably haven’t decided yet that you will “inevitably face losing streaks.”
You also haven’t decided that “it’s not your fault” when they occur.
Even if you know the data, you haven’t practiced thoroughly enough, so you haven’t fully accepted this fact or understood that it’s part of the system.
3/6 Because you haven’t accepted that “losing streaks are inevitable,” you see losing streaks as unexpected events.
You try to modify the system to avoid them, or you mistakenly believe you’re improving it, breaking consistency in the process.
That’s why it’s always painful.
No system can avoid losing streaks or drawdowns.
It is said that trading becomes boring when everything you need to do is decided, but “everything” literally includes everything—your actions, attitudes, and perceptions.
If you thoroughly prepare and trust the statistics, you need to decide to accept everything that happens within that framework and proceed accordingly.
This year marks my 16th year in trading.
I will explain how I lost the passion I once had more than anyone else, how I lost interest, and how that led to things going well↓ Thread 1/8
2/8 I used to have more passion for trading than anyone else.
I had to intentionally discard that passion, and after struggling with it, I lost my passion and interest.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not making a “lazy” suggestion to abandon passion in trading.
Passion is necessary.
But at some point, you suddenly don’t need it anymore.
This is the tricky and difficult aspect of trading.
3/8 Passion is needed when developing, testing, and practicing strategies or systems.
In this stage, learn with passion.
But once the system is complete and you want to get 100 or even 1,000 attempts no matter what, forget about passion for a while.
That’s because your passion becomes a big risk for the system.
Most of a trader's job is waiting.
To improve the quality of work, one must master the art of waiting.
A thread explaining how to wait ↓ 1/7
2/7 Many novice traders become anxious when not participating in the market and tend to force trades, which is a big mistake.
A trader's job is to use a validated system with an edge to collect a large sample of trades under the same conditions and maximize the system's edge.
To do this, waiting for the right timing is essential.
3/7 To leverage the law of probability, a large sample size is necessary, but many people misunderstand this and think "I must trade a lot."
The more you try to increase the number, the more forced trades you'll make.
This is because the number of trades is not something you can increase by trying.
As a result, you end up producing unnecessary trades and lowering the quality of your trade samples.
You shouldn't set goals for the number of trades, such as "trade 5 times a day" or "trade at least once a day."
This is not something you can control, and what's important is that "by consistently executing only the trades you should over time, a large quantity accumulates."
While sample size is important, it's not something that can be forced.
Here’s a thread explaining how meaningless and risky it is to keep staring at your P&L during a trade or worry about the outcome ↓ 1/5
2/5 During a trade, thoughts like how much you're winning or losing right now are unnecessary.
Many people get excited when they see unrealized profits or get scared when they see unrealized losses, but you should stop this habit immediately.
This behavior comes from a short-term perspective, rooted in the mistaken belief that winning a current trade brings you closer to success, while losing pushes you farther away.
Even though you should be acting according to the rules, this emotional reaction to unrealized profits makes it harder to maintain consistency.
This belief that values winning or losing is the cause of this short-term thinking and behavior.
3/5 Even if you have taken the time to learn probabilistic thinking and understand how consistent trading based on rules leads to profits, as long as you don't stop this behavior, you will never escape the short-term mindset and will continue to suffer.
This behavior has become a habit, so you unconsciously become concerned about the current trade's profit and loss and end up checking it.
By doing this, the false belief that values winning and losing becomes even stronger.
And through your emotions, this belief will drive you to repeat these short-term behaviors again.
As long as this feedback loop continues, you will never be able to truly acquire the necessary mindset and actions of a trader.
Just knowing about probabilistic thinking doesn't mean you'll master it.
Here's a thread that explains a crucial point in ensuring you truly develop probabilistic thinking ↓ 1/7
2/7 Suddenly, to develop probabilistic thinking, you need to stop the following habits:
- Looking at charts for no reason.
- Checking your current funds and thinking about how much they've decreased from the recent peak.
- Thinking about how many wins it will take to recover from your last loss.
- Worrying about your P&L during a trade.
- Despite thinking it was the right time to enter when you did, you later regret it when you see the results.
- Counting your losing streak.
- Getting excited or jealous about others' wins, and letting it affect your subsequent trades.
- Boasting about your wins on social media.
- Making excuses for your losses.
And so on.
3/7 The reason you need to stop these habits is that they stem from beliefs and thought processes that place value on winning and losing.
Probability doesn't focus on individual outcomes, but these beliefs contradict that.
Even if you learn probabilistic thinking and understand it intellectually, as long as you continue to repeat these behaviors driven by the belief that winning and losing matter, you'll continue to suffer.
Every time you engage in these habits, you're feeding energy into the conflicting belief that winning and losing matter.
You will strengthen the feeling that winning is important, and you'll grow even more averse to losing, making it impossible to think probabilistically.
The way probabilities work is extremely slow.
For a trader dealing with probabilities, understanding how probabilities work is the same as understanding their own job better.
Here's a thread explaining how probabilities work ↓1/7
2/7 It’s tough when you’re trading according to the rules yet your account balance just doesn’t seem to grow.
I totally understand because I’ve been through it myself.
Using the laws of probability to grow your capital really takes a long time.
Even if you backtest a system’s edge and get great results, it’s not uncommon for your live trading to start with three straight losses.
In hindsight, those losing streaks won’t matter much but going through them in real-time can be stressful.
What you need to understand is that it takes time for the laws of probability to work.
3/7 For example, with a system that has a risk-reward ratio of 1.5 and a win rate of 55%, you will profit in the long term, but with only 20 trials, there’s a possibility your funds could be in the negative.
When we think about 20 trades in the context of real trading, it might feel like quite a lot.
For a trader who trades around 10 times a month, 20 trades would mean two months.
If your capital hasn’t increased much after two months, most people would start thinking something is wrong.
At this point, many people might conclude that the system isn’t working, abandon it, or start tweaking it, ultimately losing consistency.