What the chart does after you close a position according to your rules is irrelevant to you.🧵

・The price rallied further after you took profit.
・The price moved in your intended direction after you cut your loss.
So what?
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I understand the frustration of "the price rallying further after taking profit" or "the price moving in my intended direction after cutting my loss," but your trading will fall apart if you start thinking about this.

Let's remember your job as a trader again.
Your job is to repeatedly execute trades according to your rules and extract your edge through the law of large numbers from a large sample size built solely on those rule-based trades.

If your strategy and rules have an edge, all you have to do is keep repeating them.
All chart movements outside of those rules are irrelevant to you.

Don't try to capture every move.

To you who finds stop-losses painful🧵

When you take a loss, do you think "I made a mistake"?
With every stop-loss, do you regret it, thinking "I did it again..."?

But that very way of thinking is the biggest enemy that destroys your consistency.
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First, what I want you to know is──
that a loss is not "evil".

If it is a loss you took based on a system with an edge and according to the rules, then that is a "correct stop-loss".
Rather, the structure of an edge is that profits ultimately remain "precisely because you have that stop-loss".

Conversely, even if you endure without a stop-loss and end up being saved, that is an "incorrect success experience".
It may feel good in the moment, but it will destroy your future consistency and your account.

Do not create "a special trade"🧵

If you think, "This trade is special," you will feel the next one is special as well.
This is because the only thing that ever exists for you is the special moment called "now."
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To trade with probabilistic thinking means to always trade consistently under the same conditions.

Probability works when you have built a large sample size by repeatedly making consistent trades under the same conditions.
You must not include "a special one" in that sample size.

If you do "something special" for the trade you are making now, you will likely start doing that same action for "every trade" in the future.
Your rules will become a mere formality, reproducibility will be lost, and probability will cease to function.

A successful trader is not "a trader who predicts and gets the market right" 🧵

You don't need to predict and get the market right.
Be a weather forecaster in a sunny region, saying every day, "Tomorrow will be sunny."
That's what a trader is.
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"Building a scenario" means having a plan of "if this happens, do this."

You simply build scenarios from the current chart based on your strategy's rules and keep executing "if this happens, do this."

"Predicting the market" and "building scenarios" are completely different things.

Repeating pre-determined actions like "if this happens, enter" or "if this happens, exit," and going through wins and losses while ultimately securing profits is what matters.

Continuously execute your plan as designed🧵

Does that sound easy.
Try it.
This is the most difficult thing in trading.
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In trading, "execution" is extremely simple.
It's just a click of the mouse.

But this is incredibly difficult, a difficulty that someone who has never traded will not understand.
This is because just as a trader is about to click, "every thought imaginable" emerges to plague them.

Conversely, if "every thought imaginable" did not emerge, the click would be easy.
Understanding this might make you feel somewhat liberated.

This is why I structure my trading actions into a process.

For those who lose confidence at the time of entry 🧵

Many people feel confident over the weekend, yet suddenly lose that confidence when it's time to actually trade.
That anxiety is an opportunity for you to grow one step further.
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Getting anxious before an entry is a good opportunity to identify what you currently need.
Let's ask yourself two questions to explore the root of that anxiety.

Is it because you're thinking, “I might not win”?
Or is it because you're thinking, “I’m not sure if this follows my rules; I’m hesitating on whether I should take it”?

These two questions will likely reveal where your anxiety is coming from.

How to stay motivated until you see results?🧵

Probability needs a large sample size to work.
Don't rely on motivation.
People who rely on feelings will always waver.
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For probability to work, a large sample size is necessary, and we as traders are required to act consistently.

I'm often asked, "How can I stay motivated until I see results?", but you must not rely on motivation.
It's important to "systematize" your actions.

If you rely on motivation or emotions, you will always waver.
The consistency required of you cannot be achieved if you use your emotions as fuel.

You must continue to perform your daily habits as a matter of course, "without the intervention of willpower".

Three important things you must understand to trade with probabilistic thinking🧵

No matter how much you claim "I'm thinking in terms of probability," without the three premises I'll introduce, you don't understand probability and can't truly "utilize" it.
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👉Any excellent strategy will experience losing streaks

Don't try to find a system that doesn't experience losing streaks or drawdowns.
Such a thing doesn't exist.
What is being tested in losing streaks is not the system, but "your own" discipline and consistency.

If you can't overcome this issue, no matter how wonderful a performance system you have, every time you encounter inevitable losing streaks, you'll keep tinkering with or abandoning the system forever, and you won't be able to draw out the edge eternally.

A system with an edge is one where profits remain through all the wins and losses that occur by following the rules, and losing streaks are included as part of the system.

Trying to avoid losing streaks is the same as denying the system itself.

Trading isn't a job for earning "freely," "at any time you like," or "as much as you want."🧵

Sorry if this crushes beginners' dreams, but if you picture yourself elegantly trading on the beach with just a smartphone or laptop, know that such free trading is tough.
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We traders have no choice but to adapt to the market; we must not trade based on our own convenience.

The market cannot be controlled.
Many people try to trade on their own terms, and many don't even realize they're doing it.

Aren't you doing any of the following?
・Setting a daily target amount
・Deciding on a minimum number of trades per day
・Trading whenever you feel like it without rules
・Believing that if your analysis is accurate, you can "predict" the market's future
And so on.

These are things no one can control, and the moment you try to control them, you'll quickly realize how impossible it is.

Are you using a "system"? Or is it just an "entry signal"? 🧵

Many traders head into the battlefield clutching only a fragment of their weapon's blueprint, utterly clueless as to why it's not working.
Let me clarify that fatal difference right here and now.
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If all you have is an "entry signal" like "buy on a golden cross," then what you're doing isn't trading—it's gambling.

Because you lack answers to the most critical questions in that trade.

・How much risk to expose?
・Where to cut losses?
・When to take profits?
・Is this even the right market environment to trade in the first place?

As long as you're answering these based on fleeting emotions or wishful thinking, you're just repeating a gamble.
And knowing nothing about what happens when you consistently apply this series of judgments over a large sample size—that's gambling incarnate.

Hide your P/L during trading 🧵

Many people constantly check their P/L during trading, but this is very harmful.
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I understand the urge to keep staring at your P/L during trading, but this poses a significant risk to you.

The reason you look at it is “because you’re concerned about the money,” which means “you’re placing value on winning, losing, or the amount.”
No matter how much you’ve set your SL or TP in advance, as long as you prioritize the current amount, there’s a risk you’ll override your rules.

- This profit is enough.
- I don’t want to lose this amount.
- I don’t want to lock in such a large loss.
- I don’t want to lose this profit, so I’ll move my SL to breakeven right away.
And so on.

When your decision-making is driven by money instead of rules, your strategy stops functioning.

How to use a trading journal 🧵

If you have a system with an edge, the only issue for a trader is consistency.
A trading journal can help.
Here’s how to use it.
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I’ve mentioned this a few times before, but I’ll explain it again.

Many people write their trading journal after a trade, but I’ll explain the importance of writing a trading journal “before” a trade in real trading.

By the way, this assumes that if you’re already trading live, you’ve already tested a system or strategy with an edge.
For those who have completed testing with a large sample size, what you need is not the results of individual trades but your own consistency.
The improvements you should make are not to the system but to your own consistency.

Your issues arise before or during a trade.
No problems occur after a trade is done.

It’s crucial to observe “the you who is experiencing the issue” in the moment.

The misunderstanding of "adapting to the market" 🧵

"I feel like this strategy hasn’t been working lately."
"Maybe the market has changed, so I should tweak the rules."

Have you ever felt this way?
But that mindset destroys your consistency and edge.
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Many people hear "adapt to the market" and think it means "adjusting the strategy on the fly."

But this is a fundamentally flawed understanding.

The market always brings short-term randomness in results, and in the short term, all sorts of biases can occur.
- A streak of losses
- No trends appearing
- A period where you can’t win at all

These are all within the "normal range of variation" for a strategy.

If you’ve verified your strategy with a sufficient sample size in advance, periods of losses or underperformance should naturally be included.
Mistaking these for "the market changing" and tweaking your rules will completely reset the statistical edge you’ve built up.

There is no strategy that avoids losing streaks 🧵

We traders are tested when we are losing, and in trading, which demands long-term consistent effort, how you perceive losses is extremely important.
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I keep talking about losses and losing streaks, and that's because how traders perceive losses is critically important.

When you're winning, it's easy for anyone to keep following the rules.
Talking about easy things isn't very meaningful.

Traders are tested when they are losing, when they are in a losing streak, and at that moment, your qualities as a trader—your preparation, trust in your system, understanding of probabilities, the sample size you focus on, whether you have a long-term perspective, and more—are all put to the test.

In other words, unless you are truly mature as a "trader," you cannot maintain consistency.
The moment your consistency is tested is exactly when you are "losing" or "in a losing streak."

How luck becomes "inevitable"🧵

Single wins/losses aren't your achievement, just as repeatedly calling "heads" will eventually be correct.

What truly matters is positive expectancy, as it turns randomness into your ally.
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In a game of probability, what is important is edge and sample size.
Through these two, the law of large numbers comes into effect and the edge is realized, but what makes that possible is your consistency.

The randomness of the market surprises us every time (for better or for worse), but in the face of a large sample size, it gradually averages out and converges to the inherent performance of the strategy.
This is the law of large numbers.

If the strategy you are repeating has a positive expectancy, your capital will trend towards the positive through a large sample size.
However, it takes much longer than you might think.

The feeling of "having missed out" ruins everything 🧵

"If only I had entered there, I would have won..."
"I missed it... so frustrating..."

These very feelings will destroy your consistency.
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First, you must understand this fact: "A missed trade does absolutely no damage to your sample."

Your job is "to collect samples according to the rules".
Under your rule-based conditions, you follow the signal and appropriately execute your entry, stop-loss, and take-profit.
It is important to accumulate 50, 100, or more trades in this way, strictly under the same rule-based conditions.

Missing one trade simply means you are delayed by one trade in the process of building your count of rule-based trades to 50, 100, and so on.

That is not a problem at all.

"Even though I know losses are part of trading, they still hurt." If that sounds like you 🧵

A loss is not a penalty imposed on you.
It’s the entry fee for playing the game, and you pay it only because you believe you’ll still come out ahead in the end.
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The feeling that losing is painful is based on the premise that "losing is a bad thing".

Your emotions reflect your thoughts.
The problem is that the expression you know, "losing is a part of trading", is something you only know as an expression, and it has not become "a part of the trading that generates profit" within you.

A system with an edge is one where profits ultimately remain if you keep repeating the wins and losses that occur by following the rules.
If you have thoroughly tested the rules, practiced, prepared, and understand the edge, then it should be clear what amount of loss, at what rate of occurrence, you are accepting as a cost to target a certain amount of profit.

The act of extracting an edge from a strategy with an edge is precisely the task of building a large sample size while paying costs.
A losing trade is truly a part of obtaining profit; it is a cost.
Since you are paying the cost with understanding, there is no need to feel pain.

Let's turn probabilistic thinking into probabilistic "action" 🧵

Acquiring knowledge is easy.
However, to "embody" it as action is extremely difficult.
"Embodiment" is the ultimate form of understanding, and traders must "embody" probabilistic thinking.
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Many people have the problem of "I understand it in my head, but I can't do it".

Even if you understand in your head that "if you have a strategy with an edge, all you have to do is repeat it", you still can't do it.
The reason is that you don't "truly" understand its necessity.

When I say this, I can almost hear people saying, "No, that's not it, I understand it perfectly well", but the very fact that you are unable to take that action means you do not understand.

This is because deep down, there is something you are prioritizing over that action.
In trading, it is "the win or loss right in front of you".

As long as you prioritize "the win or loss right in front of you" over long-term results and consistency, no matter how much you claim to understand the importance of consistency, you will just keep breaking the rules to avoid an immediate loss, or giving in to immediate greed and breaking the rules to enter a trade.

Traits that all great traders possess 🧵

How many of these traits do you possess?
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👉 They have rules to follow

Great traders don't do different things on each trade based on emotions or whims.
They have a system (strategy) with an edge, and they deeply understand that their job is to keep following the system's rules, collect only the wins and losses that occur under those rules, and let probability work to extract their edge.
If you do something different every time, it's difficult to get consistent results, and you will be constantly swayed by the market's randomness.

👉 They don't try to win it all back in one trade

Great traders do not think about winning back all their previous losses in the next single trade.
They consider the losses and losing streaks that occur by following the rules to all be part of the system.

They are confident, through thorough prior preparation, that their strategy has an edge over a large sample size.
They have already come to accept losing streaks and drawdowns as part of the system, and understand that to deny them is to deny the system itself.
In fact, they believe that losing streaks and drawdowns are when their consistency is being tested, and they will never break their consistency, continuing to demonstrate their quality as a trader to the market.

Therefore, they don't have the idea of breaking the rules to win everything back on the next trade just because they are on a bit of a losing streak.
They understand well that doing so means abandoning a system with an edge and turning from a trader into a gambler.

Let's properly understand "Expected Value," the absolute basic of probabilistic thinking 🧵

Probabilistic thinking is extremely important for traders.
This time, I will explain "Expected Value" in detail.
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To succeed in trading, probabilistic thinking is essential.

While short-term results are strongly influenced by randomness, long-term results converge according to the law of large numbers.
In other words, in a coin toss with a 50% probability for each side, you might get tails 7 times out of just 10 tosses, but as the number of tosses increases to 100, 1000, and more, the outcome will converge to the true probability of 50%.

What's important here are edge and sample size.
If you have a strategy with a "positive expected value", then it is important to increase the "sample size" under the same conditions through consistent action.

I often use the expression "positive expected value", and this is something that is calculated mathematically.

By understanding the concept of "Expected Value", you will realize that you are always earning a reward as long as you follow your rules.
You are earning a profit not only when you win, but "even when you are losing".

Cramming a lot of knowledge and trading success are unrelated🧵

There are many traders who are eager to learn, but it's meaningless if they can't "keep repeating one thing over and over".
Isn't your massive input getting in the way of "repeating one thing over and over"?
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Many traders are unable to succeed despite cramming a lot of knowledge.

They watch all sorts of videos every day, learning various strategies and technical analysis.
Their knowledge is abundant, and they can show off their diverse knowledge to the beginners around them.

However, what is necessary to succeed in trading is not a wide range of knowledge.
It is to keep repeating a single method with a statistical edge for years.

A wide range of knowledge is unnecessary to do this.