What you can control in trading 🧵

Many traders waste energy and lose capital by fighting what they cannot control.
Market movements. The outcome of a single trade. None of these are under your command.
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Every time you focus on results,
you are abandoning what you actually can control.

Focus only on rules and actions.
That is the lever that moves probability.

Embody probabilistic thinking 🧵

It’s not about the outcome—it’s about the process. Profits will follow in due course.
These phrases are not meant to console you after a losing trade.
Only those who remain steadfast—no matter what—earn the right to say them.
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“It’s not about the outcome—it’s about the process.” “Profits will follow in due course.”

These ideas rest entirely on trust:
Trust in your strategy. Trust in statistics. Trust in the law of large numbers. Trust in your own thorough preparation.

The market never guarantees you profit up front.
Randomness will naturally deliver losing streaks and drawdowns.
Whether you can still—no matter what—faithfully follow the rules of your edge-tested strategy depends entirely on how deeply you trust that strategy and the law of large numbers.

That trust is measured by your consistency in action.

In other words, when you’re in the thick of a losing streak and feeling unsettled, what’s truly being tested isn’t your strategy—it’s your trust.

No matter how strong a system with an edge you have, you still won't succeed 🧵

Many people still don't succeed, no matter how good their system is.
Here's why.
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Many assume a great strategy is enough to succeed, but it's not that simple.
If anything, what comes next is where it gets truly hard.

Even if you have a system with an edge, probabilistic by design, the reason it fails to work is simple.
Probability works through the Law of Large Numbers over a large sample size, and that requires your consistency.

When probability doesn't seem to work, it simply means the Law of Large Numbers isn't kicking in, and that happens because of one of two things.

- You lack consistency.
- The sample size isn't large enough for the Law of Large Numbers to operate.

In short, no matter what system with an edge you have, it only works through your sustained consistency over the long run.

“Elite traders have no emotions” is wrong 🧵

This misunderstanding is widespread.
The truth is not that they lack emotions.
They simply place value on different things.
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Elite traders are not emotionless.
They simply do not consider a single isolated loss to be bad.
This is not wishful thinking but something they understand completely, both logically and through experience.

If anything, they are convinced that cutting losses in line with their rules is what leaves profits in the end, and they place their value on whether they executed the process faithfully.

In that sense, they feel intense aversion and discomfort toward breaking rules or failing to execute the process faithfully.
Their emotions have not disappeared.
The emotions that arise have changed because what they value has changed.

Consider whether your actions actually let probability do its work 🧵

Probability is slow.
It only begins to work for those who can keep their discipline long before the results are visible, as if it were already in effect.
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Consistency is indispensable for probability to play out.

For example, even with a 40% win rate, a strategy with a strong risk‑reward profile can be profitable if you keep repeating it. (This is only an example, so the figure 40% has no special meaning, and I am not recommending a 40% win rate strategy, to be clear.)
Run a simple simulation and generate about 1,000 random trials at a 40% win probability, then look at the results.
You will see five straight losses happen frequently, and ten straight losses occur more often than you expect.
Even then, can you maintain consistency all the way through, as the simulation implies?

This is where trading is hard.
No matter how much edge there is, many traders overthink and fail to stay consistent to the end, and in the name of “improvement” they end up breaking that consistency.

You are a part of the system that must stay consistent to let probability do the work 🧵

Peace of mind in trading doesn’t come from 'winning'.
It comes from knowing that every win and every loss is already accounted for in the edge you’ve prepared.
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Many people misunderstand what a trader’s job really is.

Your job is not to win the next trade.
Your role is to follow the rules of a strategy with an edge consistently across a large sample size, to build that large sample under the same conditions, and to let the law of large numbers surface the edge.
Your most basic yet most important role is to be part of the system and to keep doing the same thing again and again with consistency.

What monthly return should you aim for? 🧵

Most people care deeply about how much they can make in a month.
They also care about the monthly returns of other people’s strategies.
But ironically, it’s that focus on monthly return that keeps you from succeeding.
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I occasionally get questions like “What monthly percent should I aim for?”
But monthly return is not something you target.

Monthly returns vary with the risk each trader takes and the performance of the strategy.
On top of that, the number of trade opportunities is market‑dependent, and results over a short window like one month are heavily influenced by randomness.

Above all, “one month” is a human convenience, while probability doesn’t care about calendar periods.
It cares about sample size.

Thinking in terms of an arbitrary one‑month window contradicts probabilistic thinking.

As with USDJPY this August, which I trade, it’s common for a month to be mostly range‑bound with virtually no trade opportunities.
Even if that month offers few entries and you only take a handful of trades, it still gets treated as just another “one month.”
Plenty of people then opine on the win rate and performance of that tiny sample size within that month.

The rules exist "to lose by the rules" 🧵

Some say, "Since rules don’t win every time, you must break them." That’s wrong.
Rules keep conditions consistent, hand outcomes to probability, and let it work.
They are not for winning one-off trades in front of you.
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Another person said, "If following the rules meant you win them all, that would be a holy grail, and since no such thing exists, you need exceptions instead of following every rule," which is a total misread of trading and a sign they need to relearn probability.

Rules never guarantee a 100% win rate.
I have long said that "losing in accordance with the rules" is itself the edge.

A strategy with an edge is one that leaves profit when you keep generating wins and losses naturally by following the rules.
By definition, causing losses according to the rules is part of that edge.

The way your rules prescribe losing is what ensures profit in the aggregate.

Redefine "trader" and commit to consistency 🧵

You are not the one who wins or loses any trade.
You are the executor: build the scenario, check the conditions, and click as planned.
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Remember only this:

・You are a scenario-execution machine.
・Your opinion is irrelevant. Even if you think “it might go down,” if the rules say buy, you buy.
・The only place you can play an active role is in preparation.
・You have no right to pick and choose signals. If a signal appears, you take every one of them.
・You are not responsible for wins or losses. Your responsibility is only in whether you stayed faithful to the process.

Good trades are boring—but “don’t feel bored” 🧵

A good trade that follows the rules is often described as boring.
But the moment you find yourself repeating “boring, boring” over and over, it’s proof that you’re seeking stimulation, and that’s a mistake.
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Consistency is absolutely essential for probability to play out.

From this perspective, trades that follow the rules or repeat the same process are often described as “boring.”
But constantly saying “boring, boring” is the wrong kind of boredom—it’s really just a reflection of your craving for stimulation.

To truly reach the right state, your perspective must shift to the long term.
You have to let go completely of the idea that you can control short-term outcomes and fully accept your true responsibility and role.
In that case, you’ll have no expectations about immediate results, you won’t crave stimulation, and you won’t feel bored at all.

Think of it like weight training.
Someone who truly understands weight training doesn’t get angry or feel stimulated just because their muscles aren’t visibly bigger right after a workout.
That’s because they’re thinking long-term from the start.
That’s what it means to approach something with a long-term perspective.

The phrase “good trades are boring” works as an antithesis to the stimulation-soaked short-term thinking behind bad trades.
It’s only an “expression.”
Actually feeling bored is dangerous.

"I took a lot of losses today, so I’ll be more cautious tomorrow." 🧵

It may seem good, but treating wins as good and losses as bad ties you to short-term randomness, trapping you in an endless "improvement loop" trying to adapt to it.
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I’ve often heard traders say, “I lost a lot, so from now on I’ll be more cautious.”
It may sound like good judgment, but in this context, the only information is the outcome—win or loss.
What’s missing is the most important part: whether the result came from following the rules.

In other words, chances are high that you’re judging quality based solely on outcomes.

Even if you stick to a strategy with an edge, losing streaks will inevitably happen.
That’s natural.
What matters is sticking to the rules on the very next trade as well.

Short-term results are shaped by randomness, but it’s precisely by remaining consistent that those short-term fluctuations average out and your strategy’s true edge is revealed.

The point is not to change something because you won or lost, but to remain consistent no matter what.

Why you'll never find a system with an edge 🧵

Most traders wrongly believe successful systems never lose.
They abandon strategies at the first drawdown, quitting before the edge ever materializes.
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They endlessly lament how “it’s so hard to create a system with an edge,” but the root cause lies in their mindset, lack of understanding, and absence of consistency.

Even if they already possess a system with an edge, they fail to recognize it and are unable to harness its potential.
This is because the edge exists beyond the losing streaks and drawdowns.
What needs to change is not the system itself, but your mindset and approach.

A system with an edge isn’t one that avoids drawdowns or losing streaks—it’s one that, “even after going through them,” ends up profitable over time.

In other words, as long as you stop using a system due to a drawdown or a losing streak, you will never even notice its edge, forever trapped in an endless loop of searching for one.

Do not avoid your stop-loss 🧵

When entering a trade, treat the potential stop-loss amount as a prepaid cost.
The belief that “you keep your money if the stop isn’t hit” creates a penalty illusion—harmful to discipline.
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Do not seek wins. Do not try to avoid losses.

If you’ve prepared a strategy with an edge and are executing it, you should already understand the “answer” to individual wins and losses:
you will inevitably incur losses, yet still end up profitable over the long term.
It is this confidence that allows you to act consistently, trust the process, and surrender to the edge through a large sample size.

Consistency is built on the foundation of believing that “profits will follow in due time.”

How to Adapt to the Market 🧵

Many people misunderstand the phrase “adapting to the market.”
It does not mean adjusting your strategy to fit the current market trend.
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To “adapt to the market” is not to change your approach constantly in response to short-term fluctuations.
It means simply to wait.

By waiting, you can consistently trade under the same conditions, making “market changes” irrelevant to you.

No matter how much the chart moves, you don’t need to capture every swing.
You only wait for the conditions that fit your plan and trade exclusively in those moments.

The game of probability is really a game of “how much you can believe”🧵

You have no guarantee about the future, yet you must keep acting with consistency — and probability only favors those who can do so.
How much trust have you built?
That’s what’s always being tested.
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There is never a guarantee about future results.

You don’t know whether the trade in front of you will end in a win or a loss.
That’s precisely why you must keep betting on your statistical edge, letting the law of large numbers work through a big enough sample size to draw out that edge.

What’s required of a trader who operates with probabilistic thinking is consistency.
And consistency is only possible through belief.

If you don’t start from the premise that your strategy has positive expectancy, you won’t be able to stay consistent.
Without that trust, every small losing streak will make you doubt — “Has my strategy stopped working? Has the market changed?” — and you’ll start making changes.

The quality of your trades is refined through waiting 🧵

Your job is to “click.”
But that simple action becomes the best possible click only through waiting.
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In trading, a winning trade isn’t necessarily a good trade, and a losing trade isn’t necessarily a bad one.

What matters is whether you’ve prepared properly in advance, followed the rules of a strategy with an edge, and executed your process with consistency.
And that execution is built through waiting.

In other words, the quality of your trades is sharpened by waiting.

There is no such thing as a perfect strategy or perfect rules🧵

You will lose.
Losing trades are part of trading.
But if you can make them part of your success, there’s no problem.
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Many traders desperately want to avoid losing trades.

But this is inevitable.
Every strategy will have losses, and losing streaks are unavoidable.
Short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness, and you cannot escape it.

If you hate losing and chase perfection, you are taking on the impossible—and will never succeed.

You must accept that you will lose, that your strategy will not always deliver winning outcomes, and you must operate with that assumption.

Stop counting losing streaks 🧵

No matter how many losses in a row you take, what you need to do does not change.
The number of consecutive losses is irrelevant to your next move—it is information that will only cause you stress and undermine your consistency.
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There is no way to “escape” a losing streak.

Escaping a losing streak means your next trade results in a win.
But short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness.
We cannot control whether the next trade will be a win or a loss.

In other words, to put it plainly—you cannot intentionally break out of a losing streak.

If you could, it would also mean you could prevent losing streaks altogether, which in turn would mean a 100% win rate.
And of course, that is impossible.

The ability to execute exactly what you’ve planned is the ultimate skill🧵

On weekends, anyone can look at the charts with a clear head.
The real challenge begins when the market starts moving—when you must carry out your pre-defined plan without being swayed by the price action.
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A plan is meaningless if you can’t execute it as planned.

As traders, we can analyze calmly and speak with reason when the chart is static.
But once the market is live, emotions like greed and fear emerge, and calm execution becomes much harder.

This stems from a flawed belief—the tendency to place value on individual wins and losses.
And it’s precisely this belief and thought process that makes trading so difficult.

To those outside trading, “executing a plan as planned” might sound easy.
In reality, it is an advanced skill in itself.

Don’t lock in profits too quickly just because "it’s better than losing" 🧵

Even if it eases your anxiety, your success moves farther away.
I’ll explain the mechanism.
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When a position shows even a small profit, many people rush to take it out of fear of losing it, but this behavior pushes you further from success.

A strategy with an edge only realizes that edge when you follow its rules faithfully.
By entering by the rules, exiting by the rules, and repeating that, the strategy’s win rate and risk-reward are brought out by the law of large numbers.

If you take profits earlier than your rules specify, you impair the reward side of the risk-reward ratio, leaving you with a risk-reward that works against you.

The golden pattern that guarantees failure🧵

① Cannot cut losses
② Taking profits too early
③ Deciding position size based on emotion

In short, do the opposite.
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Trading is a world of probability.

To compound profits, you must repeat "conditions with an edge" and let the law of large numbers work over the long term.
But all three of these behaviors destroy that edge.

- Cannot cut losses → your equity curve plunges on large losses, and your statistical edge disappears.
- Taking profits too early → you throw away gains your rules would have captured, and your risk-reward ratio breaks down.
- Deciding position size based on emotion → your risk of ruin rises, the strategy’s original risk-reward is distorted, and long-term operation becomes impossible.

In other words, these three acts do not "make probability your ally" but rather "make probability your enemy."