How to Adapt to the Market 🧵

Many people misunderstand the phrase “adapting to the market.”
It does not mean adjusting your strategy to fit the current market trend.
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To “adapt to the market” is not to change your approach constantly in response to short-term fluctuations.
It means simply to wait.

By waiting, you can consistently trade under the same conditions, making “market changes” irrelevant to you.

No matter how much the chart moves, you don’t need to capture every swing.
You only wait for the conditions that fit your plan and trade exclusively in those moments.

The game of probability is really a game of “how much you can believe”🧵

You have no guarantee about the future, yet you must keep acting with consistency — and probability only favors those who can do so.
How much trust have you built?
That’s what’s always being tested.
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There is never a guarantee about future results.

You don’t know whether the trade in front of you will end in a win or a loss.
That’s precisely why you must keep betting on your statistical edge, letting the law of large numbers work through a big enough sample size to draw out that edge.

What’s required of a trader who operates with probabilistic thinking is consistency.
And consistency is only possible through belief.

If you don’t start from the premise that your strategy has positive expectancy, you won’t be able to stay consistent.
Without that trust, every small losing streak will make you doubt — “Has my strategy stopped working? Has the market changed?” — and you’ll start making changes.

The quality of your trades is refined through waiting 🧵

Your job is to “click.”
But that simple action becomes the best possible click only through waiting.
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In trading, a winning trade isn’t necessarily a good trade, and a losing trade isn’t necessarily a bad one.

What matters is whether you’ve prepared properly in advance, followed the rules of a strategy with an edge, and executed your process with consistency.
And that execution is built through waiting.

In other words, the quality of your trades is sharpened by waiting.

There is no such thing as a perfect strategy or perfect rules🧵

You will lose.
Losing trades are part of trading.
But if you can make them part of your success, there’s no problem.
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Many traders desperately want to avoid losing trades.

But this is inevitable.
Every strategy will have losses, and losing streaks are unavoidable.
Short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness, and you cannot escape it.

If you hate losing and chase perfection, you are taking on the impossible—and will never succeed.

You must accept that you will lose, that your strategy will not always deliver winning outcomes, and you must operate with that assumption.

Stop counting losing streaks 🧵

No matter how many losses in a row you take, what you need to do does not change.
The number of consecutive losses is irrelevant to your next move—it is information that will only cause you stress and undermine your consistency.
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There is no way to “escape” a losing streak.

Escaping a losing streak means your next trade results in a win.
But short-term results are heavily influenced by randomness.
We cannot control whether the next trade will be a win or a loss.

In other words, to put it plainly—you cannot intentionally break out of a losing streak.

If you could, it would also mean you could prevent losing streaks altogether, which in turn would mean a 100% win rate.
And of course, that is impossible.

The ability to execute exactly what you’ve planned is the ultimate skill🧵

On weekends, anyone can look at the charts with a clear head.
The real challenge begins when the market starts moving—when you must carry out your pre-defined plan without being swayed by the price action.
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A plan is meaningless if you can’t execute it as planned.

As traders, we can analyze calmly and speak with reason when the chart is static.
But once the market is live, emotions like greed and fear emerge, and calm execution becomes much harder.

This stems from a flawed belief—the tendency to place value on individual wins and losses.
And it’s precisely this belief and thought process that makes trading so difficult.

To those outside trading, “executing a plan as planned” might sound easy.
In reality, it is an advanced skill in itself.

Don’t lock in profits too quickly just because "it’s better than losing" 🧵

Even if it eases your anxiety, your success moves farther away.
I’ll explain the mechanism.
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When a position shows even a small profit, many people rush to take it out of fear of losing it, but this behavior pushes you further from success.

A strategy with an edge only realizes that edge when you follow its rules faithfully.
By entering by the rules, exiting by the rules, and repeating that, the strategy’s win rate and risk-reward are brought out by the law of large numbers.

If you take profits earlier than your rules specify, you impair the reward side of the risk-reward ratio, leaving you with a risk-reward that works against you.

The golden pattern that guarantees failure🧵

① Cannot cut losses
② Taking profits too early
③ Deciding position size based on emotion

In short, do the opposite.
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Trading is a world of probability.

To compound profits, you must repeat "conditions with an edge" and let the law of large numbers work over the long term.
But all three of these behaviors destroy that edge.

- Cannot cut losses → your equity curve plunges on large losses, and your statistical edge disappears.
- Taking profits too early → you throw away gains your rules would have captured, and your risk-reward ratio breaks down.
- Deciding position size based on emotion → your risk of ruin rises, the strategy’s original risk-reward is distorted, and long-term operation becomes impossible.

In other words, these three acts do not "make probability your ally" but rather "make probability your enemy."

For those who feel anxious after entry 🧵

Take a screenshot before entry.
Do not focus on the outcome, but instead focus on whether you are handling the information given at that moment appropriately.
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Looking at a completed chart in hindsight and saying “enter here and exit here” is easy.
But we traders must always make decisions without knowing the outcome.

Precisely because the outcome is always unknown, you must handle the information given at that moment appropriately and leave the subsequent result to randomness.
However, if your strategy truly has an edge, repeating that decision will bring out that edge.

You do not need to worry about an outcome you can never know in advance; you only need to care whether you handled the information already given appropriately.

What should I do if the market changes?🧵

This question is full of misunderstandings and problems.
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I have received this question many times, but first, on what basis do you judge that the market has changed? The true essence of what the questioner wants to know is probably, "What should I do if this strategy stops making a profit?".

In that sense, if the strategy truly had an edge to begin with, it would take a very long period to determine that the edge has been lost.
This is because a large sample size is required to determine the disappearance of that edge.
And, whether the strategy truly had an edge in the first place can also only be known through a large sample size.

In other words, the basic premise is that whether a strategy has an edge can only be known through a large sample size, and whether that edge disappears can also only be known through an even larger sample size.

Now, to return to the initial question, the answer to "What should I do if the market changes?" becomes: "You're going to lose your consistency long before you can tell if the market has truly changed, so worry about that first".

You are worrying early on about something that can only be known after a very long time, but in the first place, it is more difficult to maintain consistency until that point is known, and the very fact that you are worrying about it without understanding this means your consistency is likely very fragile.

This is because if you had tested your strategy's edge beforehand with a very large sample size, you would have already experienced numerous losing streaks and drawdowns, overcome them, and then concluded that an edge exists, so you probably wouldn't feel this kind of anxiety.

The job of trading is to "wait"🧵

Many people think, "I need to trade to make money," and always want to have a position, but trading always comes with risk.
You must trade only when it is truly necessary, and for that, you need to "wait".
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While prior preparation is crucial in trading, the very act of turning that preparation into action is none other than "waiting".

Practically speaking, the only active action you take is the "click," but what kind of click that becomes is determined by the passive action of "waiting".

You prepare thoroughly in advance, have a strategy with an edge, create solid scenarios, and decide what to do under what circumstances.
Putting these into practice is done through the action of "waiting".

The market is unique, but it repeats🧵

A chart that is identical to the past in every detail will never appear again.
However, that has absolutely nothing to do with repeatability, consistency, or the functioning of probability.
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A chart that is identical to the past in every detail will never appear again.
However, we are not trading to predict a chart that is identical to the past.

Essentially, we are continuously betting on the "reasons" we can read from the chart.

For example,
Let's say you have a rule: in a specific higher timeframe market environment, when a double bottom forms at a specific support line on a lower timeframe, the entry point is the break of the recent high, and the stop loss is set just below the support line.

This means that the specific support line was tested twice, but the majority of traders rejected transacting at prices below it,
and you are betting on the possibility of a rise fueled by drawing in various orders, such as...
① traders who place buy orders after confirming the support line has held by the break of the recent high,
② traders participating in what they see as a pullback buy on the higher timeframe after confirming the bounce off the support line,
③ the buy orders from the stop losses of traders who had been selling in anticipation of a break below the support line.

This is trading the same chart pattern, but it essentially means you are not betting on the chart pattern itself, but rather on the "reason" that formed the chart pattern.

In other words, what is important is whether the underlying reason for the formation of that double bottom is consistent, and there is absolutely no need for the shape of the double bottom itself to be a perfect match to the past.

If you don't understand the reasons and only fixate on superficial shapes, you will become inflexible and will continue searching for a strict match with the past, which is absolutely impossible.

Be a professional🧵

Preparation, understanding risk, building scenarios, buying, selling, waiting, closing positions—in every action a trader takes, you must be a professional.
I do not cut corners in any phase.
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Trading is extremely difficult, and it is not something you can succeed at with a naive mindset.

There is no such thing as a "way for even beginners to make money," and it is necessary to prepare like a professional and to continue acting consistently like a professional over a long period, which means the only way to make money is to become a professional.

Many traders trade without confidence in their strategy, are swayed by the results right in front of them, and cannot execute what they planned in advance.
Furthermore, they don't even have a plan or rules to follow.

What I mean by "Be a professional" here is a matter of your mindset and actions; it is not about whether you have made money, and it is irrelevant whether you are employed by someone or have passed a prop firm challenge.
It is a suggestion to "Be a professional" regardless of whether you are already making money, and this is extremely important.

Probably, the professional athlete you admire was a professional even in their student days.
That's the point.
Professionalism is revealed in preparation, attitude, and every action.

You can only act by believing in positive expected value🧵

To maintain consistent actions, you have no choice but to "believe."
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Short-term outcomes are heavily influenced by randomness, so we must continue consistent actions over the long term.

The reason you abandon a strategy with positive expected value midway is that you don't fully believe in it.
Since the future is uncertain and no one can guarantee the future returns of that strategy, all we can do is "believe."

That's why it's crucial how you've built that trust—such as the sample size you used to test or "practice" the strategy in advance, or how many years you've maintained consistent actions.

Most of a trade is already done with pre-preparation🧵

Whether the chart goes up or down, it doesn't matter to me either way.
No matter what happens, the actions are already prepared, and those actions have an edge.
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In trading, pre-preparation is extremely important.
Pre-preparation includes testing or practicing the strategy in various ways, but the pre-preparation I'm talking about here is building scenarios in advance.

Some people might know this because I always write scenarios on my blog on Sundays, but I create scenarios in advance like "If this happens next, I'll do this."
Just because I write them on the blog on Sundays doesn't mean I only build scenarios on Sundays.
Every day as the chart updates, I update the scenarios like "If this happens next, I'll do this."

By building scenarios in advance, it becomes clear what you're waiting for, making it easier to calmly take the necessary actions when the time comes.
This eliminates hesitation, reluctance, and regret, allowing you to repeatedly execute high-quality trades.

Don't think about how to win; think about how to retain profits.🧵

Trading is a game of making a structure work by figuring out how repeating the same actions leads to retained profits, and then actually continuing to act consistently in that manner.
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Many people tend to think, "How can I win?".
But what's important isn't the outcome of a single trade, but how you can retain profits through consistent action.

If you only seek wins, even if you win 9 out of 10 times, it's meaningless if a single loss wipes out more than all the profits you've made.
In this scenario, you're winning 9 out of 10 times, yet your account is negative.

Conversely, if you only win 4 out of 10 times but your account grows steadily, that's a wonderful thing.

The outcome of a single trade is not important.
Trading profits are generated over multiple trades through a balance of win rate and risk-reward.

Wait and click. The reason you can't take this simple action is always you 🧵

Simply being able to consistently repeat this simple act makes you an excellent trader, and you will surely succeed.
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Do you have a trade plan, a scenario?

Without a trade plan, you can't even "wait".
You can wait because "what you are waiting for" is clear.

Instead of just opening a chart and buying or selling on a whim, it's important to create a scenario from each chart based on your plan and act according to that "if this happens, I do that" scenario.

By the way, a plan and a scenario are almost the same thing, but they are subtly different.
A plan is your overall action plan or set of rules, while a scenario is the "execution procedure under specific circumstances," your "if this happens, then I do that."
For example, in my case, a plan is something like, "buy on a pullback in the higher time frame, entering at the point where the lower time frame makes a higher high and a higher low."
Scenario building is then thinking about the "if this happens, then I do that" on the actual current chart based on that plan.

I always read the current chart to identify where and what kinds of risks exist and where and what kinds of orders are concentrated, and I create scenarios in advance accordingly.
The scenarios differ depending on the chart, but they are always based on the same plan.
(If this is hard to visualize, please feel free to read my blog.)

Of course, these plans must be profitable when repeated over time, and you must trust the long-term results that your rules produce.

Have you built trust in that strategy?
Are you thoroughly prepared in advance?
Aren't you just acting on a whim?

What the chart does after you close a position according to your rules is irrelevant to you.🧵

・The price rallied further after you took profit.
・The price moved in your intended direction after you cut your loss.
So what?
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I understand the frustration of "the price rallying further after taking profit" or "the price moving in my intended direction after cutting my loss," but your trading will fall apart if you start thinking about this.

Let's remember your job as a trader again.
Your job is to repeatedly execute trades according to your rules and extract your edge through the law of large numbers from a large sample size built solely on those rule-based trades.

If your strategy and rules have an edge, all you have to do is keep repeating them.
All chart movements outside of those rules are irrelevant to you.

Don't try to capture every move.

To you who finds stop-losses painful🧵

When you take a loss, do you think "I made a mistake"?
With every stop-loss, do you regret it, thinking "I did it again..."?

But that very way of thinking is the biggest enemy that destroys your consistency.
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First, what I want you to know is──
that a loss is not "evil".

If it is a loss you took based on a system with an edge and according to the rules, then that is a "correct stop-loss".
Rather, the structure of an edge is that profits ultimately remain "precisely because you have that stop-loss".

Conversely, even if you endure without a stop-loss and end up being saved, that is an "incorrect success experience".
It may feel good in the moment, but it will destroy your future consistency and your account.

Do not create "a special trade"🧵

If you think, "This trade is special," you will feel the next one is special as well.
This is because the only thing that ever exists for you is the special moment called "now."
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To trade with probabilistic thinking means to always trade consistently under the same conditions.

Probability works when you have built a large sample size by repeatedly making consistent trades under the same conditions.
You must not include "a special one" in that sample size.

If you do "something special" for the trade you are making now, you will likely start doing that same action for "every trade" in the future.
Your rules will become a mere formality, reproducibility will be lost, and probability will cease to function.

A successful trader is not "a trader who predicts and gets the market right" 🧵

You don't need to predict and get the market right.
Be a weather forecaster in a sunny region, saying every day, "Tomorrow will be sunny."
That's what a trader is.
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"Building a scenario" means having a plan of "if this happens, do this."

You simply build scenarios from the current chart based on your strategy's rules and keep executing "if this happens, do this."

"Predicting the market" and "building scenarios" are completely different things.

Repeating pre-determined actions like "if this happens, enter" or "if this happens, exit," and going through wins and losses while ultimately securing profits is what matters.