In this thread I will go over each part of the Pokrovs'k front, from Hirnyk to Hrodivka to Arkhanhel's'ke, analyzing the current situation at the contact line, as well as trying to predict both sides' strategies in the near future.
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Let's start easy with the Arkhanhel's'ke section, which has only seen a Russian attack in months now. The direction can as such be considered stable. The result of the attack in question is unknown, but we know that a Ukrainian PoW was captured.
The Vozdvyzhenka direction has also been very quiet for quite a lot now, as the main Russian effort has shifted to the west. There were no geolocations lately here.
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In Yelizavetivka Russian infantrymen were recorded in the easternmost outskirts of the village some weeks ago, but we haven't heard any other source talking about any breakthroughs or even attacks in this direction, so this front can also be considered relatively calm.
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Hrodivka. Here the situation is much worse. Over the course of more than a month the Russians not only captured most of the town, but also crossed the Zhuravka river, pushing back the Ukrainians from important trench systems on the dominant hill.
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At Novohrodivka, after the loss of the settlement the Ukrainians were able to contain Russian attacks. As of now the Ukrainians are fully controlling the 1st line behind the settlement. Attacks on Lysivka and at the railway have also been contained successfully for now.
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Marynivka sector. The village was abandoned soon after the fall of Novohrodivka, which put it into an operational encirclement. From then on the Russians slowly entered and cleared the village and the trench systems south. In the picture is the situation as of today.
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Selydove - Mykhailivka sector. After initial Ukrainian disorganization in August, the units there, with the help of reinforcements, managed to almost completely halt Russian advancements, inflicting serious casualties on the enemy.
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Worth noting is the invaluable help of the 15th Brigade "Kara-Dag" and its 2nd Battalion "Ghost of Khortytsya"'s drones, which thwarted many Russian attacks in the area and systematically destroyed enemy manpower. The situation in the city itself is stable for now.
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Together with Hrodivka, Tsukuryne is the direction that worries me the most now. After the quick fall of Ukrayinsk, the Russians breached the line behind the settlement and captured the "Selydivs'ka" terikon west of Ukrayinsk.
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As of today there have been different attempts by the Russians to capture the vital railway with armoured and infantry attacks, which could've well been successful. The railway line is vital to hold because west of it are little to no trenches and villages to hold.
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Hirnyk sector. Constant infantry attacks are recorded here, and the city is constantly under bombing, though other than a flag on the very outskirts of the town and Russian reports, there have been no confirmed instances of Russians inside the town.
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Together with Kurakhivka, this city has to be held at all costs to limit Russian advancements near the Nevels'ke pocket and for the same reason as Tsukuryne railway: west are only small villages and decent trenches to hold. That is, if the Ukrainians retreat in good order.
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That's it for this thread. As you may have noticed I'm not doing these often because of really tight time constraints, but I promise there will be much more interesting threads coming out as soon as I'll have a little more time at my disposal, so stay tuned 👀
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An analysis of the current tactical situation in the city and on its flanks, especially focusing on the Rodynske flank (right), and what has been prepared in all these months behind the city.
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Early May 2025, the Russians prepare the all-or nothing push on Pokrovsk's right flank, concentrating enormous amounts of infantry and equipment.
A motorcycle assault breaks through to Novoolenivka on May 1st, and the flower blooms. The Russians immediately commit their reserves and attack absolutely everything. Every single field, every single settlement.
Malynivka and Yablunivka are entered a week later, Nova Poltavka falls 2 weeks after Novoolenivka, opening the way to Poltavka, and Novoekonomichne, which a month ago was in the rear, is now threatened from 2 directions.
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But the actual breakthrough happens in mid June, when Koptieve, and most importantly, the trenches in front and around it, are lost.
The Russians sense a weak spot, and again commit everything they have in the sector.
At that time, they were able to significantly lengthen the front with their spearhead, sending the Ukrainians into a catastrophic infantry shortage, but most critically, complete disorganization in the drone operators' ranks. My "prayers", unfortunately, were not listened to (x.com/Playfra0/statu…).
At the end of June 2025, #Russia 🇷🇺 is attempting to unify the Komar and Novopavlivka directions, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 built a formidable defensive line to prevent this. Very soon, it will finally see utility.
Analysing the tactical-strategical situation and Ukrainian fortifications in the area, as well as predictions for future developments.
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The problems in this directions arose in early June, when the Ukrainians left only a rearguard in Bahatyr and the Russians broke through to Komar and Fedorivka. Because of this breakthrough, the Ukrainians were forced to temporarily divert their attention there, leaving an open window for the Russians to dash further through the vast fields of the region.
And indeed, on June 9th, DeepState reported that Russians were able to fly in between Dachne and Zaporizhzhia, but were destroyed.
On June 11th, the Russians tried again, and succeeded, crossing the Vovcha river between Dachne and Novoukrainka and entering for the second time the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast'.
After this series of breakthroughs, the Russians consolidated their bridgehead to attack Zaporizhzhia, and on June 12th the battle began and lasted 11 days, ending on June 23rd, with the Russians demonstrating their flags in the center of the village.
These breakthroughs formed numerous pockets and inconvenient positions for the Ukrainians, and the Russians are also threatening to cross the Mokri Yali and Vovcha rivers to get behind Ukrainian positions in even more areas, as well as breaching the main Ukrainian defensive line in front of Ivanivka, which we will analyze soon.
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Let's look at this breakthrough in more detail. In its western part, the Russians were only able to capture Perebudova, using the dense urban area as cover for their advancements, but are suffering losses in trying to move further west to Myrne because of Ukrainian drone operators tightly controlling the open area in between the 2 settlements.
As you can see from the photo below, the Ukrainians were able to hastily reinforce Myrne with a line of barbed wire (in light gray) east of the settlement, too, which, behind the Tonka river, further complicates Russian movement here.
In 2022, after failing to quickly capitulate Ukraine, the Russians completely withdrew their forces from the north of the country, concentrating everything on the east.
In September of the same year, though, the Ukrainians found a weak spot in Russia's groupment of forces in the Kharkiv Oblast', and decided to strike with great force, collapsing the front for 100km in the famous Kharkiv counteroffensive.
After this incredible victory, the Ukrainians started planning and accumulating resources to attempt a further counteroffensive, this time in multiple sectors of the frontline.
As such, Russia almost completely switched to a defensive posture, only limiting their offensives to a couple of their most promising directions, as for example Bakhmut.
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The Surovikin line takes its name from Russian general Sergey Surovikin, that had this line built immediately after the already discussed Ukrainian Kharkiv counteroffensive.
The Surovikin line is the most extensive set of fortifications built since the end of WW2, and it stretches for a colossal 2000km from Belarus to the Dnipro river's delta. Since September 2022, construction continued at full speed until early 2024, only then slowing down because of their renewed offensives and switch of focus from defensive to offensive. But even since then, construction has always been ongoing, with the Russians very slowly extending their fortifications and reinforcing currently existing ones.
Way up North, #Russia 🇷🇺 opened a new front at #Sumy, hoping to get close enough to the city to control its supply routes and shell it, but #Ukraine 🇺🇦 is opposing fierce resistance, aided by the strong brigades and natural obstacles.
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After the capture of Sverdlikovo and Nikolayevo-Daryino, Kursk Oblast', already in early February 2025, Russian forces started attacking southwards across the state border towards Novenke and in the fields between Zhuravka and Basivka.
After some small initial successes, they got rapidly bogged down because of Ukrainian drone crews that were freely hunting them in the open fields and the number of capable brigades that had just retreated from the Kursk salient and regrouped around that area.
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Seeing that they were effectively stuck, the Russians decided to do what they can do best: lengthen the front, exploiting their superior resources, and threatening with encirclement the Ukrainian forces opposing them at the original frontline.
Facing what was described as a horde of Russian infantry along this frontline, the Ukrainians had to retreat further back.
Though, this retreat was not properly conducted or orderly, and the Russians were able to exploit more than a gap to advance further than the Ukrainians expected.
Against renewed #Russian 🇷🇺 attack efforts, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has not been idle, and is currently building the New Donbas Line, which stretches from #Kharkiv city to #VilnePole (#Zaporizhzhia), and which is the fruit of years of drone war experience and, finally, error correction.
In some sections, it's already capable of withstanding full-force #Russian attacks.
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After 1.5 years of total offensive on much of Ukraine's territory, Russia is seemingly not intending to decrease the pace of their assaults, and on the contrary are renewing offensive actions on the South Donetsk, Novopavlivka, Kostyantynivka, Siversk, Lyman and Sumy.
In contrast, though, the Ukrainians have not been watching and sleeping all this time, and have brought big reinforcements in the critical Kostyantynivka direction, and, focus of this thread, have been digging a brand new Donbas Line.
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The first parts of this line were constructed back in early March, and the Ukrainians have been building and reinforcing non-stop since then.
We trench mappers call it the New Donbas Line because it covers a massive 350 km: from Kharkiv city itself to Pechenihy east, to Shevchenkove west of Kupyansk and all the way down to Izyum, then west of Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, at Zolotyi Kolodiaz, north of Dobropillia, Slovyanka, Mezhova, Havrylivka and, finally, Vilne Pole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
In the #Kostyantynivka direction, #Russia 🇷🇺 started serious offensive operations to flank the city from the west and breach #Ukraine🇺🇦's little number of prepared defenses there, with the help of new drone innovations.
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After the Ocheretyne breakthrough in April 2024, the Russians captured many important positions and settlements around the town itself. One of these was Novooleksandrivka. After its capture, the Ukrainians succesfully halted further Russian advancements towards Vozdvyzhenka, aided by the Kazenyi Torets' and Bychok rivers, which funneled the Russians into the village, and the vast fields north of Novooleksandrivka.
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In January 2025, though, the Russians exploited the fact that the Ukrainians had left, after a year of inactivity, only few and inexperienced units defending this sector, and moved the bulk of their reserves to counter-attack at the Kotlyne salient.
Vozvdyzhenka was taken after a couple of days, but the Skala's battalion delaying actions, that was hastily transferred there temporarily, saved the situation by directly attacking Russian accumulation inside the village and giving crucial time to the units behind to reorganize an effective defense.
Some reserves were also transferred, for example an Azov contingent at the "Kleverne" interchange of the important Pokrovsk - Kostyantynivka road, which conducted a successful counter-attack and destroyed a dangerous Russian accumulation under an overpass that was preemptively destroyed by the Ukrainians.
In the picture is where the frontline was stabilized for some time.