In this thread I will go over each part of the Pokrovs'k front, from Hirnyk to Hrodivka to Arkhanhel's'ke, analyzing the current situation at the contact line, as well as trying to predict both sides' strategies in the near future.
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Let's start easy with the Arkhanhel's'ke section, which has only seen a Russian attack in months now. The direction can as such be considered stable. The result of the attack in question is unknown, but we know that a Ukrainian PoW was captured.
The Vozdvyzhenka direction has also been very quiet for quite a lot now, as the main Russian effort has shifted to the west. There were no geolocations lately here.
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In Yelizavetivka Russian infantrymen were recorded in the easternmost outskirts of the village some weeks ago, but we haven't heard any other source talking about any breakthroughs or even attacks in this direction, so this front can also be considered relatively calm.
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Hrodivka. Here the situation is much worse. Over the course of more than a month the Russians not only captured most of the town, but also crossed the Zhuravka river, pushing back the Ukrainians from important trench systems on the dominant hill.
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At Novohrodivka, after the loss of the settlement the Ukrainians were able to contain Russian attacks. As of now the Ukrainians are fully controlling the 1st line behind the settlement. Attacks on Lysivka and at the railway have also been contained successfully for now.
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Marynivka sector. The village was abandoned soon after the fall of Novohrodivka, which put it into an operational encirclement. From then on the Russians slowly entered and cleared the village and the trench systems south. In the picture is the situation as of today.
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Selydove - Mykhailivka sector. After initial Ukrainian disorganization in August, the units there, with the help of reinforcements, managed to almost completely halt Russian advancements, inflicting serious casualties on the enemy.
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Worth noting is the invaluable help of the 15th Brigade "Kara-Dag" and its 2nd Battalion "Ghost of Khortytsya"'s drones, which thwarted many Russian attacks in the area and systematically destroyed enemy manpower. The situation in the city itself is stable for now.
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Together with Hrodivka, Tsukuryne is the direction that worries me the most now. After the quick fall of Ukrayinsk, the Russians breached the line behind the settlement and captured the "Selydivs'ka" terikon west of Ukrayinsk.
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As of today there have been different attempts by the Russians to capture the vital railway with armoured and infantry attacks, which could've well been successful. The railway line is vital to hold because west of it are little to no trenches and villages to hold.
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Hirnyk sector. Constant infantry attacks are recorded here, and the city is constantly under bombing, though other than a flag on the very outskirts of the town and Russian reports, there have been no confirmed instances of Russians inside the town.
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Together with Kurakhivka, this city has to be held at all costs to limit Russian advancements near the Nevels'ke pocket and for the same reason as Tsukuryne railway: west are only small villages and decent trenches to hold. That is, if the Ukrainians retreat in good order.
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That's it for this thread. As you may have noticed I'm not doing these often because of really tight time constraints, but I promise there will be much more interesting threads coming out as soon as I'll have a little more time at my disposal, so stay tuned 👀
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🧵The defense of Fortress Orikhiv 🇺🇦: everything you need to know about the city's future.
Analyzing natural obstacles and topography, fortifications, weak and strong spots, logistics, and urbanistics.
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Orikhiv is a town in southeastern Ukraine with 14,000 pre-war inhabitants that covers about 10 km² (about 1/4 of Pokrovsk and 1/7 of Bakhmut).
This city has been no more than 7 km from the contact line since 2022 and has seen constant fighting ever since.
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Together with Kamyanske, Huljajpole, and Velyka Novosilka, Orikhiv is part of the town line where the Ukrainians were able to stop the Russian advance in the first days of the war.
That same year it stood against a Russian encirclement attempt.
Then, it served as the main logistical, accumulation, and command hub of the Ukrainian 2023 southern counteroffensive, and after its failure, it continued to serve those purposes, significantly holding back Russian attempts to reactivate the Zaporizhzhia direction.
🧵 Southeastern front: Ukrainian 🇺🇦 and Russian 🇷🇺 forces continue clashing and fighting for the initiative, while Ukrainian engineers exploit this time to significantly enhance their fortifications.
🧵Thread 🧵1/⬇️
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In this thread, I will focus on:
- Describing the tactical-strategical situation in all directions of the southeastern front
- Describing the progress with Ukrainian fortifications
- Commenting on my opinions about each situation and giving my point of view on the general situation.
Stepnohirsk direction. In general, the situation remains stable and without significant changes.
In Prymorske and Stepnohirsk, Russian forces continue to infiltrate all over the settlements but are struck and often destroyed by tight control of Ukrainian FPVs.
Ukrainian forces continue to be present in both villages and sometimes conduct physical clearings.
Just east, Russians infiltrate along the indicated route to the solar farm and then attempt to reach Lukianivske, but they're struck by FPVs along the way, and the few who sometimes end up in the settlement are immediately cleared.
In my opinion, the main Russian objectives in this direction (photo #4) are:
- Getting as close as possible to Zaporizhzhia for it to eventually be in drone and artillery range.
- Pushing Ukrainian forces behind the Konka River.
- Pushing towards Orikhiv from the west, consolidating well their positions on the dominant heights, and placing drone teams there to critically endanger Ukrainian supplies into Orikhiv.
Photos #2 and #3 show the situation with the fortifications and topographic overlays.
Some personal considerations about the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 "counteroffensive" in the Oleksandrivka direction.
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1. First of all, I disagree with figures citing massive Ukrainian gains of up to 400 (!) km².
According to my information, the total recaptured territory by the Ukrainians is around 20 km², and it is all concentrated at the Russian bridgehead over the Haichur River in the Ternuvate direction, which was almost completely liquidated except for Pryluky.
Here, a methodical clearing was conducted (not always without losses and with good organization and coordination), positions were taken and consolidated, and Russian forces do not have anymore the possibility to infiltrate like they did some weeks ago at all.
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The bulk of the territory that goes in the incorrect 400 km² count is south of Verbove, in the Oleksandrivka direction. Here, first of all, the Ukrainians cleared remainders of old Russian infiltration attempts into Novooleksandrivka, Oleksiivka, and treelines south (the Russians never consolidated those positions, and the Russians had long given up on attempts to capture these settlements, almost totally focusing on Huljajpole: t.me/PlayfraOSINT/3…).
After weeks of tedious mapping of every single trench, foxhole, emplacement, ditch, blockpost, dragon's teeth, and barbed wire line, I've finally finished the Berdyansk sector, one of the most heavily fortified pieces of territory in the whole of Ukraine.
The total count is as follows:
- 40,000 trenches, foxholes, emplacements, firing positions
- 450 separate anti-tank ditches
- 600 separate dragon's teeth lines
- 220 separate barbed wire lines
Let's look at the most interesting things I found along the way.
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The area of the Ukrainian 2023 Velyka Novosilka counteroffensive.
De-facto, Russia's line "0.5". It was designed to absorb the first blow of Ukraine's counteroffensive and soften the Ukrainians for the first line of defense.
1/🧵 The situation in and around fortress Kostyantynivka: is it in danger, what are the main problems, and what's next.
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Kostyantynivka is a quite sizeable city in northern Donetsk Oblast, with a population of 67,000 as of 2022, and is part of Ukraine's formidable Kostyantynivka - Druzhkivka - Kramatorsk - Slovyansk defensive node, where Kostyantynivka is the southernmost city of the four.
These four cities are factually the last of their size still in Ukrainian-controlled Donbas.
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Ever since 2023, up to this day, Kostyantynivka has served, and continues to serve, critically important purposes for Ukrainian forces in some of the hottest areas of eastern Ukraine, like the Bakhmut, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Rusyn Yar sectors, being used, for example, as an accumulation hub, logistical base, and (probably) command point.
Pokrovsk - Dobropillia general update (26/12 - 01/01)
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Pokrovsk industrial area. Russian soldiers move in waves of groups of 1-3 soldiers along the highway.
In the orange square, very frequent and large traffic of infantry is recorded.
From there, they cross the railway into the industrial zone along the indicated routes. Russian forces seem to still be unable to consolidate their positions there.
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Just east of this area, Russian forces tend to move as shown in the picture, mostly following the urbanized area but also attempting infiltrations in the treelines just north of Pokrovsk.