In this thread I will go over each part of the Pokrovs'k front, from Hirnyk to Hrodivka to Arkhanhel's'ke, analyzing the current situation at the contact line, as well as trying to predict both sides' strategies in the near future.
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Let's start easy with the Arkhanhel's'ke section, which has only seen a Russian attack in months now. The direction can as such be considered stable. The result of the attack in question is unknown, but we know that a Ukrainian PoW was captured.
The Vozdvyzhenka direction has also been very quiet for quite a lot now, as the main Russian effort has shifted to the west. There were no geolocations lately here.
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In Yelizavetivka Russian infantrymen were recorded in the easternmost outskirts of the village some weeks ago, but we haven't heard any other source talking about any breakthroughs or even attacks in this direction, so this front can also be considered relatively calm.
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Hrodivka. Here the situation is much worse. Over the course of more than a month the Russians not only captured most of the town, but also crossed the Zhuravka river, pushing back the Ukrainians from important trench systems on the dominant hill.
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At Novohrodivka, after the loss of the settlement the Ukrainians were able to contain Russian attacks. As of now the Ukrainians are fully controlling the 1st line behind the settlement. Attacks on Lysivka and at the railway have also been contained successfully for now.
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Marynivka sector. The village was abandoned soon after the fall of Novohrodivka, which put it into an operational encirclement. From then on the Russians slowly entered and cleared the village and the trench systems south. In the picture is the situation as of today.
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Selydove - Mykhailivka sector. After initial Ukrainian disorganization in August, the units there, with the help of reinforcements, managed to almost completely halt Russian advancements, inflicting serious casualties on the enemy.
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Worth noting is the invaluable help of the 15th Brigade "Kara-Dag" and its 2nd Battalion "Ghost of Khortytsya"'s drones, which thwarted many Russian attacks in the area and systematically destroyed enemy manpower. The situation in the city itself is stable for now.
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Together with Hrodivka, Tsukuryne is the direction that worries me the most now. After the quick fall of Ukrayinsk, the Russians breached the line behind the settlement and captured the "Selydivs'ka" terikon west of Ukrayinsk.
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As of today there have been different attempts by the Russians to capture the vital railway with armoured and infantry attacks, which could've well been successful. The railway line is vital to hold because west of it are little to no trenches and villages to hold.
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Hirnyk sector. Constant infantry attacks are recorded here, and the city is constantly under bombing, though other than a flag on the very outskirts of the town and Russian reports, there have been no confirmed instances of Russians inside the town.
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Together with Kurakhivka, this city has to be held at all costs to limit Russian advancements near the Nevels'ke pocket and for the same reason as Tsukuryne railway: west are only small villages and decent trenches to hold. That is, if the Ukrainians retreat in good order.
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That's it for this thread. As you may have noticed I'm not doing these often because of really tight time constraints, but I promise there will be much more interesting threads coming out as soon as I'll have a little more time at my disposal, so stay tuned 👀
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How #Ukraine 🇺🇦 is planning to stop #Russia 🇷🇺 in #Donetsk Oblast', once and for all.
A strategical frontline and fortification works assessment for the month of March 2025.
🧵Thread 🧵1/15⬇️
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After extremely tough fighting, and tactical counterattacks and disruptions, the Ukrainians were able to finally mostly stabilize the contact line along most of the Donets'k's front and extinguish the most dangerous Russian offensives for the Pokrovs'k - Myrnohrad agglomeration.
Seeing this, Russia decided to shift its focus elsewhere, especially concentrating on the Uspenivka - Rozlyv axis.
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Russia coupled the shift in their area of activity with the utilization of the armor they have likely been stockpiling for some time (Russia is suffering from a serious lack of armor all along the frontlines), and broke through on a mechanized assault to Bohdanivka. They were denied consolidation only thanks to massive efforts by the involved brigades.
All along the front, the #Ukrainians 🇺🇦 are fighting the #Russians 🇷🇺 for the initiative and are conducting small tactical counterattacks, buying crucial time to reinforce defensive positions in the rear that #Russia 🇷🇺 can't afford to give #Ukraine 🇺🇦.
Stay with me in this thread while I analyze which new defensive lines were built and which reinforced, from #ChasivYar to #Zaporizhzhia.
🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️
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Lately, #Ukraine 🇺🇦 has been launching many small counteroffensives all along the front and has been successfully repelling #Russia 🇷🇺's attacks, with February being the month of least #Russian territorial gains since summer 2024.
It is though important to correctly interpret the objectives of these small counterattacks and debunk common beliefs of an incoming big counteroffensive. The objectives are: 1. Buying time 2. Tactical position improvement 3. Questioning Russian initiative
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As said, the crucial time bought by these localized counterattacks is being put to use by reinforcing defensive positions in the rear. Let's start analyzing this process more in-depth with #ChasivYar.
Trenches:
- No visible changes.
Anti-tank ditches:
- New line north-east of Kostyantynivka.
- Extended the two already existing lines east of the city.
- New line between the city and Ivanopillya.
- New line south-west of Kostyantynivka.
Dragon's teeth:
- New line crossing the railway at the northern exit of Chasiv Yar.
- 3 new lines at the eastern entrance of Kostyantynivka.
- Extended line at Bila Hora.
- New lines and extensions south of Kostyantynivka and Ivanopillya in correlation with the worsening of the situation in Toretsk at the start of February.
Barbed wire:
- Extended line east of Kostyantynivka.
- New lines east of Ivanopillya.
On the #Pokrovsk front, #Russia 🇷🇺 can't keep up the pressure anymore and was forced to downscale its offensive efforts.
#Ukraine 🇺🇦 is exploiting this by counter-attacking in many places along this sector, while fortifications are being strongly reinforced with a novelty: the great use of barbed wire.
🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️
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Dachne - Andriivka
This is the most difficult part of the whole Pokrovsk front for the Ukrainians.
Russian forces pressure Kostyantynopil constantly, but are always repelled. Without changes.
Zelenivka, south of Ulakly, reportedly changed hands twice today. In the morning, the Russians captured the village, but a Ukrainian counterattack was able to clear part of the village in the afternoon. The destruction of 2 Russian tanks and 3 MTLBs is reported. Russian forces are also attacking east of Zelenivka on the opposite bank of the Sukhyi Yali river; extremely harsh fighting is still ongoing.
In Dachne, the Ukrainians still control the south-westernmost corner of the town. Nonetheless, the Russians started accumulating infantry in the center for further assaults on the remaining Ukrainian positions in the village and around it. Fighting continues.
The most difficult situation is Andriivka, which some sources give as practically captured. Here the Russians consolidated and secured last week's gains and continue wedging themselves in the town. At the moment, they're trying to fully secure positions on the western buildings of the town. The northern part is still controlled by Ukraine, but north of that, the Russians entered a trench system located on the dominant hill overlooking Andriivka itself, which endangers every Ukrainian position south of it.
The Ukrainians will have to retreat in the very near future from Dachne and nearby positions to Ulakly to avoid encirclement, as Kostyantynopil is already being attacked from both sides. After, the Ukrainians will fall back to the line Kostyantynopil - Rozlyv, before falling back again to the more solid Oleksiivka - Bahatyr - Komar line, where they're expected to hold out for some time.
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Sribne - Nadezhdynka (Nadiivka)
The Russians are clearing the last buildings in the northern part of Sribne and are constantly attacking Zaporizhzhia. After capturing the central part of the town, they moved fighting to the western part, where it is still ongoing.
Russian forces are trying to recapture lost ground after a localized Ukrainian counter-attack in the forests south of Nadezhdynka, while also trying to capture a treeline that approaches Preobrazhenka from the north, threatening Ukrainian positions in Zaporizhzhia.
In picture #2, the next suitable lines of defense.
The #Russians continue attacking #Andriyivka and have successes on occasionally gaining a small foothold on the easternmost houses of the town. Fighting is going on for a vital chain of strongholds on a dominant.
The #Russians entered #Nadiyivka/#Nadezhdynka and the orchards and forests south of the settlement, likely with the aim of creating a pincer on #Sribne and #Zaporizhzhia.
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The #Russians captured the ventilation shaft of the "Pokrovs'ke" mines and moved west from it. They also advanced in #Kotlyne and entered the "#Kovalykha" farm and bypassed it from the north. The first trench systems belonging to the outer #Pokrovsk ring were also captured.
The #Russians break through near #Udachne and #Kotlyne at the railway and start fighting for the mines, but the #Ukrainians still have a strong line after. This thread will be on the still urgent and critical #Russian breakthrough in the area.
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Recently, the #Russians captured both of the treelines on the railway line's sides between #Udachne and #Kotlyne, crucial defense hubs, and are fighting for the key mines just behind the railway, which normally constitute formidable obstacles
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As of now, the #Russians entered mine VPS-1 (#Udachne) and control the south-eastern part of mine N°2 (#Kotlyne). The railway between the two settlements is also in #Russian hands, while mine Donets'kstal'-M3, N°1 and their ventilation shafts are under #Ukrainian control.
The #Russians are advancing, but the #Ukrainians have not been idle in the rear.
This thread will be a mix of analyses about what #Ukraine has dug this winter and about how this correlates with the current tactical-strategical situation at the front. Happy reading!
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This thread will be organized as follows:
we will move from the #Zaporhzhzhia front to the #Kurakhove one, then #Pokrovsk, #Toretsk and finally #ChasivYar. I will also say a few words about other less active fronts in terms of digging.
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Let's start.
The Zaporizhzhia front's defense counts on two main strongholds: #Orikhiv and #Hulyaypole. The #Ukrainians started digging long ago in front and behind these two crucial cities, which now gives us two well-built defensive lines to look at.