In this thread I will go over each part of the Pokrovs'k front, from Hirnyk to Hrodivka to Arkhanhel's'ke, analyzing the current situation at the contact line, as well as trying to predict both sides' strategies in the near future.
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Let's start easy with the Arkhanhel's'ke section, which has only seen a Russian attack in months now. The direction can as such be considered stable. The result of the attack in question is unknown, but we know that a Ukrainian PoW was captured.
The Vozdvyzhenka direction has also been very quiet for quite a lot now, as the main Russian effort has shifted to the west. There were no geolocations lately here.
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In Yelizavetivka Russian infantrymen were recorded in the easternmost outskirts of the village some weeks ago, but we haven't heard any other source talking about any breakthroughs or even attacks in this direction, so this front can also be considered relatively calm.
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Hrodivka. Here the situation is much worse. Over the course of more than a month the Russians not only captured most of the town, but also crossed the Zhuravka river, pushing back the Ukrainians from important trench systems on the dominant hill.
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At Novohrodivka, after the loss of the settlement the Ukrainians were able to contain Russian attacks. As of now the Ukrainians are fully controlling the 1st line behind the settlement. Attacks on Lysivka and at the railway have also been contained successfully for now.
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Marynivka sector. The village was abandoned soon after the fall of Novohrodivka, which put it into an operational encirclement. From then on the Russians slowly entered and cleared the village and the trench systems south. In the picture is the situation as of today.
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Selydove - Mykhailivka sector. After initial Ukrainian disorganization in August, the units there, with the help of reinforcements, managed to almost completely halt Russian advancements, inflicting serious casualties on the enemy.
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Worth noting is the invaluable help of the 15th Brigade "Kara-Dag" and its 2nd Battalion "Ghost of Khortytsya"'s drones, which thwarted many Russian attacks in the area and systematically destroyed enemy manpower. The situation in the city itself is stable for now.
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Together with Hrodivka, Tsukuryne is the direction that worries me the most now. After the quick fall of Ukrayinsk, the Russians breached the line behind the settlement and captured the "Selydivs'ka" terikon west of Ukrayinsk.
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As of today there have been different attempts by the Russians to capture the vital railway with armoured and infantry attacks, which could've well been successful. The railway line is vital to hold because west of it are little to no trenches and villages to hold.
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Hirnyk sector. Constant infantry attacks are recorded here, and the city is constantly under bombing, though other than a flag on the very outskirts of the town and Russian reports, there have been no confirmed instances of Russians inside the town.
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Together with Kurakhivka, this city has to be held at all costs to limit Russian advancements near the Nevels'ke pocket and for the same reason as Tsukuryne railway: west are only small villages and decent trenches to hold. That is, if the Ukrainians retreat in good order.
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That's it for this thread. As you may have noticed I'm not doing these often because of really tight time constraints, but I promise there will be much more interesting threads coming out as soon as I'll have a little more time at my disposal, so stay tuned 👀
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After weeks of tedious mapping of every single trench, foxhole, emplacement, ditch, blockpost, dragon's teeth, and barbed wire line, I've finally finished the Berdyansk sector, one of the most heavily fortified pieces of territory in the whole of Ukraine.
The total count is as follows:
- 40,000 trenches, foxholes, emplacements, firing positions
- 450 separate anti-tank ditches
- 600 separate dragon's teeth lines
- 220 separate barbed wire lines
Let's look at the most interesting things I found along the way.
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The area of the Ukrainian 2023 Velyka Novosilka counteroffensive.
De-facto, Russia's line "0.5". It was designed to absorb the first blow of Ukraine's counteroffensive and soften the Ukrainians for the first line of defense.
1/🧵 The situation in and around fortress Kostyantynivka: is it in danger, what are the main problems, and what's next.
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Kostyantynivka is a quite sizeable city in northern Donetsk Oblast, with a population of 67,000 as of 2022, and is part of Ukraine's formidable Kostyantynivka - Druzhkivka - Kramatorsk - Slovyansk defensive node, where Kostyantynivka is the southernmost city of the four.
These four cities are factually the last of their size still in Ukrainian-controlled Donbas.
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Ever since 2023, up to this day, Kostyantynivka has served, and continues to serve, critically important purposes for Ukrainian forces in some of the hottest areas of eastern Ukraine, like the Bakhmut, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Rusyn Yar sectors, being used, for example, as an accumulation hub, logistical base, and (probably) command point.
Pokrovsk - Dobropillia general update (26/12 - 01/01)
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Pokrovsk industrial area. Russian soldiers move in waves of groups of 1-3 soldiers along the highway.
In the orange square, very frequent and large traffic of infantry is recorded.
From there, they cross the railway into the industrial zone along the indicated routes. Russian forces seem to still be unable to consolidate their positions there.
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Just east of this area, Russian forces tend to move as shown in the picture, mostly following the urbanized area but also attempting infiltrations in the treelines just north of Pokrovsk.
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About the recent severe worsening of the situation in #Siversk: events that led to this and information from the field.
Unfortunately, in the last 2 weeks, after more than 3 years of effective defense of the sector by Ukrainian units, Russian forces made significant progress in the Siversk direction and in the city itself.
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The main unit commanding the city's defense is the very experienced 54th Mechanized Brigade (with battalion "K-2" drones "Sky Fury").
Because of the gradual prioritization of other directions and the de-prioritization of more dormant and/or stable ones like Siversk, the Ukrainian command has not allocated any big amount of resources to the Brigade in the last months, or even years, choosing to distribute them in more critical sectors instead. As such, because of slow attrition, manpower and other needs of the brigade were not replenished at a sufficient rate, making it slowly become severely understaffed in manpower up to today.
Taking advantage of this, recently the Russian command finally reinforced the sector with new brigades, adding them to the ones made up of terrible-quality DPR and LPR forces, which severely impeded any progress on their part in the last years, among other reasons.
1/🧵Uspenivka sector, Pokrovske front, according to information from the field. Short update thread.
In the last few days, the situation, finally, significantly improved for Ukrainian forces after the transfer of the reinforcements I talked about here ().
After a period of generally large successes in this sector, in the last days Russian forces have been suffering a lot in wounded and dead servicemen, and, while further north near Vyshneve fast advancements are still recorded, they factually didn't advance by a meter near Uspenivka in recent days (the orange polygon you see is a correction, and DeepState updates are being published with a delay and generally diminish Russian gains here).
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Until now, the Russians advanced well to Uspenivka, effectively exploiting the very well-built Ukrainian trenches (that were simply abandoned by Ukraine) to accumulate their own manpower and transfer it without Ukrainian FPV threat. Once they reached the Yanchur river, it was imperative for them to force it immediately to exploit an almost complete lack of any Ukrainian organized defense effort, but to do this it was essential to secure the farm at 47.770945, 36.454224 (east of Novomykolaivka), and the small part of Novomykolaivka located east of the Yanchur river (1 single line of houses) at 47.771161, 36.447422.
🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Day 1300, comprehensive frontline and rear situation report: territorial changes, trends, strategies and objectives of both sides, fortifications.
🧵Thread🧵1/⬇️
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Zaporizhzhia Oblast', Stepnohirsk sector.
Russian forces continue offensive operations in the sector, despite generally low media coverage.
The Russians gather up in Plavni's center to move through the gray zone to northern Plavni, and accumulate there. After this, they try to move into southern Prymorske, but are eliminated in the accumulation phase or cleared out by frequent Ukrainian infantry raids.
The Russians also often try to move through the kill zone in the fields north of Kamyanske, but the area is open enough for Ukrainian drone operators to control well and eliminate any movement, causing high casualties to the Russians.
Further northeast, the Russians constantly attempt to move into the 3rd microdistrict. This is because the district is composed of still mostly intact high rise buildings, that can be used for a safer accumulation for further assault operations.
From the 3rd microdistrict, the Russians seem to prefer attacking Ahrarna St. in southern Stepnohirsk.
Because of this predictability, the Ukrainians are zeroed in and constantly counterattack with all fire methods available.
Because of little successes evidenced after trying to take Stepnohirsk head-on, the Russians are slowly shifting their attention eastwards. An accumulation is recorded northeast of Kamyanske in the indicated area.
In general, the Ukrainians seem to be effectively holding the borders, combining fire damage with active defense, and achieving a favorable ratio of casualties with the Russian side. Russian successes here, at the moment, are not significant in any way.
White = trenches
Yellow = ditches
Blue = dragon's teeth
Gray = barbed wire
In the Uspenivka sector, Russian forces are advancing through vast rural areas. The Ukrainians can do little to nothing to counter this because of the almost total lack of manpower in this particular direction, that has not seen activity since 2022, and from which many units were transferred to other areas deemed more critical.
The trenches you see in this direction are either empty, because of the critical lack of men to man them, or unused, because they are outdated relative to drone warfare, as they are situated in the middle of fields and uncovered.
At the moment, fighting is ongoing for Olhivske, and Russian forces came close to Novoivanivka, for which fighting will likely soon start.
A bit north, after the capture of Zaporizke without much resistance, the village of Novomykolaivka was captured soon after. Russian forces are expected to continue along this small valley to Kalynivske, which suffered heavy FAB bombardments last week.
Near fortified Berezove, Russian forces decided to bypass both this village and Ternove, seemingly after encountering resistance, and advanced significantly between the 2 villages in the treelines.
This forced the Ukrainians to retreat from Ternove, for which fighting is ongoing, in favor of some outdated fortifications just north of it, which, as said multiple times, provide only an extremely small advantage.