1 | The best open source information about PLAN carrier operation comes from the Japanese MoD.
From data published by 🇯🇵's Joint Staff Office we can establish some baselines for PLAN carriers' sortie rate.
Note: daily sortie rate is averaged across observation window.
2 | By just looking at the data, it seems PLAN's carrier sortie rate has seen gradual improvement.
When Liaoning was deployed in Dec.2022, its daily fighter sortie rate peaked at 20 per day and can be as low as 5 per day at the end of the deployment.
3 | After a year-long refit, Liaoning's sortie rate has seen a significant increase during the current deployment in Sep.2024.
Fighter sortie rate is at 37 per day averaged in 7 days. At the busiest day it could have reached 48 per day (2 per day per airframe).
4 | PLAN's other operational carrier, Shandong became very active when Liaoning was in her refit.
During the Oct.2023 deployment, Shandong achieved 47 fighter sorties per day across 9 days. It maintained an almost 2 sorties per day per airframe rate during the entire deployment.
5 | Similar to most open source data on PLA's capabilities, there are many caveats here.
->Are JMSDF's tally comprehensive?
->Are these fighters armed and rearmed between sorties?
->etc.
So it will be hard to make conclusive comparisons to other navies using these numbers.
6 | But we should be thanking JMSDF and Japanese MoD for their effort and transparency to put these numbers out there.
*Minor screw up here. Put Liaoning on the Shandong graph as well.
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1 | Blockading the Malacca Strait is thought to be the trump card India holds against China by many.
My 2 cents about the theoretical maximum strength the IN and IAF can commit to sustain a blockade & defend against China’s attempt to break through (assumptions, caveats apply).
2 | The main objective for the Indian Deployment is to protect 2 major air bases:
->Veer Savarkar International Airport
->Car Nicobar AFS
So IAF Su-30MKI with Brahmos & IN P8I can continuously project air power & carry out sea denial operations against PLAN.
3 | The threat to India’s blockade force are likely from 3 directions: 1. PLAAF bomber force passing through Myanmar airspace with long-range ALCM & ALBM 2. PLARF DF-26 IRBM, DF-17 HGV 3. PLAN counter force approaching from SCS (with SSNs)
1 & 2 would be the major concern.
1 | 🇨🇳Flankers vs 🇮🇳Flankers
Beyond geopolitical tensions, the rivalry can also be traced to the roots of their lineage.
->🇨🇳Flankers originated from KnAAPO on the Amur River.
->🇮🇳Flankers started from IRKUTSK by Lake Baikal.
2 | Both countries adopted a from import to license production strategy.
->India started later
->Its Su-30MKI enjoyed tech superiority for almost a decade with PESA radar, TVC, French/Israeli avionics & weapons
Left Su-30MKI cockpit vs Su-27SK/J-11 cockpit
3 | Su-30MKI’s advantage started to run out as China developed its own major upgrade as J-11B with 100% indigenization. While India was trying hard to increase domestic content in Su-30MKI but still heavily reliant on international suppliers.
1 | A simple comparison of SSKs of 🇨🇳 PLAN & 🇮🇳 IN throughout history.
->China started its SSK force 14 years ahead of India
->India has access to a wider source of suppliers but it does not achieve self sufficiency due to lack of scale and commitment
2 | The Beginning
China received full technical details to license-produce at home during the height of Sino-Soviet cooperation.
Only 3 years after receiving its 1st sub from USSR, in 1957, PLAN commissioned its first domestically produced W-class SSK (Type 6603).
3 | Early Progress
By 1962, China has built a total of 21 Type 6603 SSKs. And then in 1963, PLAN started to commission licensed-produced R-class (aka Type 033), which is more capable then the previous W-class.
2 | The longer range interceptors used by S-400 (48N6E2/3, 40N6E) are all semi-active radar homing. As long as the aircraft fly below the radar horizon, they are safe from being illuminated.
If the strike package does not know the general location of the S-400,
3 | then this would be a terribly executed strike without proper intel and support (AEW&C, ELINT aircrafts, SAR satellites), which would help locating the location of the S-400 battery before the strike package arrived.
->PLAN and IN each operate a replenishment ship based on the Soviet Komandarm Fedko-class oiler
->🇨🇳 ship was built in 🇺🇦 and further constructed in 🇨🇳
->🇮🇳 ship was fully built and delivered by 🇷🇺
->Both commissioned in 1996
Here, for the PLAN ship, the hull of the former USSR ship Vladimir Peregudov was on its way from Kherson, Ukraine, to Dalian China, spotted in Singapore in 1993.
Credit: Malcolm Cranfield
Here, for the Indian Navy ship, the completed INS Jyoti was on its way from St. Petersburg to India, spotted in Kiel Canal, Germany, in 1995.
1/n | Though not covered in 1999's FARP, the Indian Army's rocket artillery fleet suffered under the same inaction and piecemeal procurement up until 2016. In contrast, the PLAGF has made strides in inducting/improving long-range MRLS in large numbers with a significant lead.
2/n | The Indian Pinaka MRLS was leading in many areas in the early 2000s compared to Russian and Chinese systems.
-Modularized rocket pods for quick reloading and munition flexibility
-Saw combat during 1999 Kargil War even before finishing trials in 2002
3/n | Yet after 14 years in 2016, the IA only inducted 2 regiments (total 40 launchers and support vehicles). In 2016, though the cabinet approved additional 2 regiments and the MoD cleared to purchase another 6, the 6-regiment contract was only signed 4 years later in 2020.