After a lull since end of July the Kaliningrad GPS-jammer was tuned to a high power, 24/7 mode at the start of this work week.
Presumably RU Baltic forces judge drone attacks to be more probable. Or they want to annoy western aviation extra this week.
The same effect, but illustrated by @lemonodor 's brilliant gpsjam.org
In the hiatus from July til now the jammer has been on only during nights, like clockwork. Visualized her by last months 5-min average percentage jammed signals.
The St Petersburg jammer affecting Estonia and Finland has been loud since the start of July.
The sharp eye sees some odd dates, its missing data because electricity outage.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
RUBY, infamous for repeating cycles of breaking down and working fine and ran out of Tromsö, NO on safety grounds, loaded with 20k tons ammonium nitrate is closing on heavily trafficked Dover Strait.
She has made good speed, straight course and precise turns last 36h.
Story is that her hull, rudder and propeller are broken to some extent and she needs repairs.
Her flag state is Malta and that is her stated destination. But Malta has signalled she wont even be allowed into territorial waters.
This was the state of her rudder and propulsion just a few days ago.
Estonian public service news @errnews claims that fertilizer ship RUBY is looking to dump its cargo of ammonium nitrate in the sea, citing NO maritime authority. @Sjofartsdir .
This is incorrect. RUBY is looking to unload. Src: direct contact.
RUBY is still stationary at the entrance of Skagerak. Nothing is going on judging from AIS-replay. RUBY is drifting and assistant tug AMBER II is driving around, very slowly.
@The_Lookout_N , whom I respect greatly, has an opinion slightly differing from mine:
Since midnight RUBY has drifted 7 NMi to northeast while her tug has been driving around very slowly.
Aside from a Turkish warship (greenish track) passing closely last night nothing exciting is found in AIS-replays.
NO coast guard is there since last night, but 30 NMi away.
Why do I care about bomb/fertilizer ship RUBY and why should you?
My profession is not shipping nor mil/intel. But my everyday work is doing risk-rewards analysis based on science and often incomplete data with high stakes cases.
Quite similar to RUBY-situation. Mini-thread.
I find the likelyhood of RUBY being a Russian bomb plot very low and other risks (ecological, collision, etc) a bit higher.
But, the consequences if bomb plot is there and it went off in a city would be unfathomable. Including a large war.
Given those two variables the only sane thing is to seek less risky solutions to the problem. I want our governments to do that.