Thread by @HelsinkiComm

Russia will continue to be a problem for its neighbors, the US, and much of the world.

Even in the best-case scenario in which 🇷🇺 sheds its authoritarian model & its people opt for democracy in free & fair elections, the process of liberalization will be difficult & slow.🧵1/11

Internal repression & external aggression go hand in hand. Therefore, internal developments in Russia are highly relevant to US foreign policy. Externally, there will be no hope for a peaceful and stable Russia while it remains engaged in war and occupation of its neighbors. 2/11

Russia’s official neocolonial policy of continuing to view Ukraine and other former Soviet republics and neighbors as its sandbox to play in whenever the mood strikes is the most significant obstacle to long-term peace and has been the justification for heinous crimes. 3/11

Corruption is baked into Russian business, politics, and everyday life. The Kremlin network of crime and patronage ensures that loyalty to the regime is rewarded and disloyalty is punished. Doing business with Russia is both impractical and unethical. 4/11

Putin has subordinated the judiciary to his personal power to ensure his ideal outcomes, as punishments & to instill fear in the population. Russia’s judiciary will have to be completely rebuilt & a culture of rule of law developed where it traditionally hasn't existed. 5/11

There can be no change in Russia without free and fair elections. Russia must restore free and fair elections and develop a democratic culture—but this must be built on a foundation of free speech and assembly before honest elections are possible. 6/11

Russia will continue to hold other countries hostage through its natural resource wealth. Helping to diversify away from dependence on Russia could severely weaken the Russian economy, but the US must provide countries with viable alternatives. 7/11

The GRU and FSB are Putin’s personal hit squads, involved in threats, surveillance & assassinations. Because no meaningful lustration took place after the fall of the USSR, these security services remain a clear & present danger to Putin’s enemies in Russia & abroad. 8/11

Although with a bit of savvy, Russians can access independent media online, many Russians are isolated from any alternative sources of information that might challenge their thinking. No amount of liberalization in Russia will suddenly undo years of insidious propaganda. 9/11

None of these problems will be resolved quickly, and they necessitate fundamental changes in Russia, including leadership and the political will to overhaul informal and formal government and societal structures. 10/11

Russia will not be able to decide its future without reckoning with the ugliest parts of its recent and more distant history.

To learn more about the obstacles to Russia's reform, see our new report: 11/11csce.gov/wp-content/upl…