Russia is waging a shadow war on NATO, aiming to destabilize it & deter it from supporting Ukraine's existential fight for freedom.

In her recent piece in @MoscowTimes, @jvcwarlick laid out a blueprint for NATO to approach Russian provocations from a position of strength: 🧵1/5 First, NATO must improve its ability to out-innovate adversaries, ensuring it can prevail in the conflicts of today by countering active measures with enhanced attribution capabilities and strategic investments in its own arsenal of tools and capabilities. 2/5

In the month since we published this report, Russia has continued to escalate its shadow war on NATO while new evidence has come to light about previous attacks and destabilization efforts. 1/6 🧵

https://twitter.com/helsinkicomm/status/1867254380237664600

In December, Finland seized a ship that is part of Russia’s shadow fleet as part of an investigation into Russian attempts to damage undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. Attacks on undersea power cables threaten the civilian energy infrastructure across the Baltics. 2/6

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1873858103579439441

Our recent staff report mapped ~150 examples of Russian active measures on NATO soil since 🇷🇺 launched its full-scale invasion of 🇺🇦 in 4 categories: attacks on critical infrastructure, violence campaigns, weaponized migration, and election interference & disinformation.🧵 1/7 Attacks on critical infrastructure are a means to threaten public safety and undermine trust in essential resources. One fifth of the attacks mapped below are cyber campaigns against hospitals in which hackers hold patient data ransom or disrupt critical hospital services. 2/7

Russia’s active measures against NATO countries are calculated efforts to undermine democratic values, sow distrust within free societies, and destabilize the Alliance’s resolved unity.🧵1/6 Russia has executed hybrid campaigns ranging from cyberattacks to attempted assassination and terrorism plots. One-off incidents do not make wars in and of themselves, but the scale and calculated nature of Russian hybrid threats within NATO borders amount to a shadow war. 2/6

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha: There can be no alternative to justice. Russia must be held accountable for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, and all atrocities that follow, including the crime of genocide. 🧵1/4 This year, RM @RepCohen introduced a resolution recognizing Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide, calling on the US & partners to support 🇺🇦 in preventing further acts of genocide, and supporting efforts to hold 🇷🇺 political leaders & military personnel accountable. 2/4

🧵 Why NATO Must Step Up — Deterring Russia with Real Military Capabilities

The @AtlanticCouncil's @andrewmichta spoke at the U.S. Helsinki Commission Briefing on Contesting Russia. Key points on NATO'S imperative: 2/7 There is no greater imperative for the European allies than to rearm at speed and scale. If there is anything that's going to deter Russia, it's real exercised military capabilities.

Rooted in imperialist ideology and anti-Western sentiment and joined by a burgeoning axis of dictatorships, Russia has become a revisionist state driven by its desire to restore its former empire. 🧵1/8 🇷🇺 imperialism perceives itself to be in fundamental civilizational opposition to the West. 2/8

🧵 To effectively counter the long-term threat posed by Russia, the United States must adopt a comprehensive, sustained strategy that recognizes the Black Sea as a critical theater of competition. 1/9 Russia has viewed the Black Sea as a vital area for projecting power, controlling access to the Mediterranean, and exerting influence over its neighbors. 2/9

Internal repression and external aggression go hand in hand.

In Russia, the Kremlin has suppressed free media and replaced journalists with propagandists who spout hateful rhetoric calling for genocide and mass atrocities against Ukrainians. 1/5 🧵 🇺🇦 civil society groups have submitted a Communication to the ICC describing how prominent public figures in Russia use their platforms to justify and facilitate Russia's conquest of Ukraine. 2/5

It’s been over 940 days of overt Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

European energy security expert @BLSchmitt testified before the Helsinki Commission on Russia’s Shadow War on NATO. Key points from his testimony ⬇️🧵1/5 In January 2022, 400 miles from the North Pole off the coast of Svalbard, a Russian trawler dragged its anchor across the sea floor, severing fiber optic cables transmitting vital satellite data necessary for Ukraine’s defense when Russia invaded a few weeks later. 2/5

🧵 Sleeper Agents, FSB Assassinations, & GRU Black Ops Unit 29155

Russian espionage expert @michaeldweiss testified before the U.S. Helsinki Commission on Russia's Shadow War on NATO. Key points from his testimony: 2/8 Russia is waging a covert war on NATO territory.

Russia will continue to be a problem for its neighbors, the US, and much of the world.

Even in the best-case scenario in which 🇷🇺 sheds its authoritarian model & its people opt for democracy in free & fair elections, the process of liberalization will be difficult & slow.🧵1/11 Internal repression & external aggression go hand in hand. Therefore, internal developments in Russia are highly relevant to US foreign policy. Externally, there will be no hope for a peaceful and stable Russia while it remains engaged in war and occupation of its neighbors. 2/11

For years, Russia has used hybrid warfare tactics to disrupt governance, sow division, and undermine physical & economic security across NATO.

These attacks have become commonplace, but they must be treated as part of a shadow war 🇷🇺 is waging against the democratic world.
🧵1/7 In June, Russian agents set fire to a German defense manufacturer's metal factory.

At the time of the attack, a German politician said, "It has long been clear that Russia is waging a hybrid war against European countries, including Germany." 2/7
politico.eu/article/russia…

Russian forces in Ukraine are committing atrocities that are not mere acts of war but constitute a systematic campaign of genocide.

The evidence that Russia seeks the total erasure of Ukrainian identity and people is irrefutable. 1/5🧵 Russia abducts & relocates Ukrainian civilians into "filtration" camps, where they endure brutal conditions & forced assimilation. The trauma inflicted on these individuals is part of a deliberate attempt to dismantle the fabric of Ukrainian society. 2/5 npr.org/2024/02/05/122…

The release of Russian dissidents is a victory for freedom and human rights. They are living proof that a different future for Russia is both possible and urgently necessary.

And for their sake, Ukraine's survival, European security, and global peace, Ukraine must win. 🧵 1/4 Ukraine must achieve a clear and unmitigated victory, and Russia must be defeated so thoroughly that its imperial soul cracks from the shame of their crimes against Ukrainians and so many other nations, including those held captive within Russia. 2/4

Chairman @RepJoeWilson: "Russia has been kidnapping Ukrainian children to Russia or Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine and forcibly russifying them...This is a war crime and I believe amounts to genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention."

https://twitter.com/HelsinkiComm/status/1681773196595298305

.@RepJoeWilson: "There continue to be credible reports of traffickers targeting Ukrainian refugees, including online. Nevertheless, international responses, particularly along border areas, have not been sufficient."

Kicking off the hearing, @SenatorCardin: "[Switzerland] has a dark streak in enabling the laundering of blood money."

https://twitter.com/HelsinkiComm/status/1678833857821306886

@SenatorCardin HC Ranking Member @SenatorWicker: "Russia has made corruption an important part its foreign policy...The Kremlin even found ways to corrupt the highest level of Swiss law enforcement."