Thread by @AlexMonahan100

I've profited over $215,000 betting on sports this year

There's SO much bullshit info, so I'm gonna clarify what you NEED to understand...

Here's 5 *critical* things if you want to make money sports betting 👇🧵

1) Win Loss Record Doesn't Matter (Odds to Win Probability)

Win loss record is irrelevant. People love to brag about winning "60%" of their bets. Who cares. If you go 6/10 betting @ -300 odds, you're LOSING money. All that matters is making money...

Betr is a parlay only sportsbook. I made this tutorial video on it: .

I'm up over $70k on Betr this year. I've won 126 bets, lost 618. That's a win rate of 17%. But my ROI (which is all that matters) is +99%.

Win rate is completely irrelevant.

Breakeven win % is critical to understand, explained in this video:

1) When you're betting @ -300 odds, you need to win 75% of your bets to "breakeven." If you hit 80% of your wagers @ -300 odds, then you're profitable. If you win 70% long-term, then you're a losing bettor.

2) Betting @ +300 odds means a 25% breakeven win probability. Win 30% of your bets @ +300 and you're profitable long-term.

You can use an Odds Converter Calculator to determine break even win rate
1) -200 = 66.7% breakeven win rate
2) -400 = 80% breakeven win rate
3)  +400 = 20% breakeven win rate

2) The Power of Daily Compounding

For the most part, you're betting on games that day. So let's say your ROI is +5% & you're betting $1,000 a day. That means you're earning $50/day, $1,500 per month. ROI compounds quickly.

Betting $1,000 a day yields $1,500 profit in a month if you have a 5% ROI. So, sure, the stock market returns 8% but that's YEARLY. $1,000 put into the S&P500 will yield $1,080 after 1 year. Sports betting returns $1,500 with a "lower" ROI in 1 week...

That also means you can lose money very quickly if you're not profitable... Betting $1,000 a day with a -5% ROI means you're losing $1,500 every month.

I think this tutorial video breaks down the detailed math behind growing a bankroll pretty well: 

3) Variance can be brutal

If you're not comfortable having losing weeks or months, then you should be arbitrage or middle betting. These are low risk strategies explained in this video:  - DM me questions anytime

I used the same strategies in June that I used this month. I'm up over $70k this month and lost $5k in June. My betting process wasn't "worse," my bets weren't -EV, I just lost money.

Just because the stock market goes down for a month doesn't mean you shouldn't have a 401k or IRA saving for retirement... Variance is part of the game.

Unless you're arbitrage betting or middle betting, you WILL have losing weeks & months. You need to trust the process & have a large sample size.

4) Price Really Matters

I have a +15% ROI this year. If I was betting @ 20% worse odds, I'd be DOWN money. Nobody wins every bet, finding value is *really* important. This is why it's critical to have multiple sportsbooks, explained in detail here: 

Betting @ -110 vs -120 makes a massive impact in your ROI long-term. Obviously, none of this matters if you're only betting $50 every Sunday with your friends, but every single profitable bettor is "line shopping" with a tool like @OddsJam to make sure they're getting the best possible price. That's sports betting 101. Literally tip #1 in the rule book

The Dolphins are -132 tonight. If you're betting them @ -144 on FanDuel, you're gonna get killed long-term. It's like being a trader who has to pay 20% more for every stock you buy. You don't even stand a chanceoddsjam.com/betting-educat…

5) Sportsbooks aren't stupid
This video breaks down everything you need to know about how books work: 

If you don't understand how books work, you're fucked. It's like going to war without even knowing your enemy.

Sportsbooks are constantly adjusting their odds (line movement) based on the following:
1) Betting volume, especially from sharp/profitable customers (e.g. "flow"). If all the profitable bettors start betting Waddle's under, then sportsbooks will move the line or the odds
2) Line-ups, injuries, etc are already "priced" into the odds

Books have models considering all these factors + "flow" (e.g. where bets are coming in, especially from sharp customers) and they use this information to back out fair odds. Then, books "juice" their markets (add the vig).

If the "true" odds for the Dolphins = +135, a sportsbook will offer customers +110.  This calculator -  - on fair odds is the MOST important calculator in sports betting. Lmk any questions about it
oddsjam.com/betting-calcul…