But road transportation is waaay more expensive than water transportation—up to 10x more
These increases in transportation costs seem like not a big deal, but the impact is massive
Because here's the key: doubling transportation costs can reduce wealth by 90%:
• If you 2x transportation costs, you divide by 4x your potential markets
• But network effects grow with the square of nodes. 4^2=16
Doubling transportation costs can reduce trade potential by 16x!
A 16x reduction is a 94% reduction in wealth
Of course, the full 16x is not achieved in reality, and also now transportation costs are low enough that they aren't an obstacle to all types of trade
But the impact on trade is massive, and hidden: You don't know how much trade never happened because transportation costs were too high!
So you should be irate when you hear that the productivity of "Other transportation and support activities"—which includes marine cargo handling—has declined by 29%
(source: )
The most outrageous part is not the rent-seeking behavior of asking for a 77% increase in salaries—an ask they can only do because they have a monopoly
The worst part is that they're blocking automation. Every industry automates to make everything cheaper and get more business. But when you have a monopoly, you don't care. You abuse it.
The worst part is they should be looking forward to it, because, as they say, the work is back-breaking!
The worst part is that it would be better for longshoremen over the long term!
More productivity➡️Cheaper service➡️More business!
It should be a national mandate to allow port automation
UNPRECEDENTED
The singularity is near. We're 1-6 years away from AGI according to: 1. Prediction markets 2. Insider insights 3. Benchmarks 4. Lack of barriers to growth 5. Current progress
This breakneck speed of AI progress is illustrated by OpenAI's o3 and DeepSeek🧵
1. Prediction Markets:
Average bet on AGI: November 2030
Mode: June 2027
Two other bets in Metaculus match this:
• Two years to weak AGI, so by the end of 2026
• Three years later, Superintelligence, so by the end of 2029
This remote corner of the US has something unique that might soon make it one of the most important cities in the world—the city of the future. It is officially Boca Chica today, but it might soon become Starbase 🧵
This point at the south of Texas is the southernmost point in the continental US
That is extremely useful for rockets
The biggest share of weight in rockets is fuel. Most of it is burnt just to carry the rest to orbit! Rocket makers do anything they can to reduce fuel consumption
2. Los Angeles:
• Trading hub between the world (Pacific) and the US (railways)
• Weather + biggest coastal valley on the Pacific➡️agriculture & cheap building
• Oil
• Landscapes + far from the East Coast centers of power➡️Attracted the film industry
People think we must shrink the world's population to be happy, but they're wrong
A world with shrinking population would be decaying, poor, brutal, violent, hopeless
A world with 100 billion people would be dynamic, rich, innovative, peaceful, hopeful
🧵
1. In the last 2 centuries, the world got better as the population exploded:
• Richer
• Live older
• Lower child mortality
• Fewer homicides
• Fewer war deaths
• Fewer hours worked
• Lower share of poor people
And much more: fewer infections, diseases, accidents. More racial equality, sexual equality. Instant access to all the knowledge in the world. We can go anywhere, whenever we want...
We can raise our population on Earth from 8 billion to 100B humans if we want to
Would we starve?
Be too crowded?
Would pollution explode?
Ecosystems collapse?
No! Don't believe alarmist degrowthers. This is why they're wrong: 🧵
Degrowthers put a label to "how many humans can the Earth sustain": carrying capacity
Their estimates vary wildly
Wait, what? What a surprise, the mode of their estimates is 8B—exactly the current number of ppl on Earth
WHAT A COINCIDENCE!
Or they lack imagination: OMG the Earth is already on the brink. Surely not one more soul fits here!
And then they try to find out what limits we might be hitting. Their most common fears are: 1. Room 2. Food 3. Water 4. Energy 5. Pollution 6. Resources
Let's look at each: