Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Oct 1, 2024 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Every American is poorer because of longshoremen's position

The worst is not the $1½-5 Billion per day the strike would cost the US economy

The worst is not their outsized salariesImage
It's not even the known ties they have with organized crime, or their extraction of rents for work they never did Image
The worst part is that they increase transportation costs, which destroys the wealth of every American, making us way poorer

As this tweet explains, longshoremen get hefty fees every time they touch a container. As a result, shipping avoids "touches"

Image
But road transportation is waaay more expensive than water transportation—up to 10x more

These increases in transportation costs seem like not a big deal, but the impact is massiveImage
Because here's the key: doubling transportation costs can reduce wealth by 90%:
• If you 2x transportation costs, you divide by 4x your potential markets
• But network effects grow with the square of nodes. 4^2=16
Doubling transportation costs can reduce trade potential by 16x!Image
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A 16x reduction is a 94% reduction in wealth
Of course, the full 16x is not achieved in reality, and also now transportation costs are low enough that they aren't an obstacle to all types of trade
But the impact on trade is massive, and hidden: You don't know how much trade never happened because transportation costs were too high!
So you should be irate when you hear that the productivity of "Other transportation and support activities"—which includes marine cargo handling—has declined by 29%
(source: )Image
The most outrageous part is not the rent-seeking behavior of asking for a 77% increase in salaries—an ask they can only do because they have a monopoly


Image
The worst part is that they're blocking automation. Every industry automates to make everything cheaper and get more business. But when you have a monopoly, you don't care. You abuse it. Image
The worst part is they should be looking forward to it, because, as they say, the work is back-breaking! Image
The worst part is that it would be better for longshoremen over the long term!
More productivity➡️Cheaper service➡️More business!Image
It should be a national mandate to allow port automation

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More from @tomaspueyo

Apr 13
10 surprising things I've learned about Korea as I research it:

1. You might have seen the map of day & night lights in North vs South Korea, but have you compared it with population density?
2. Seoul is just monstrous. Its metro area covers 12% of South Korea🇰🇷's surface but 50% of its population Image
3. North Korea is a dictatorship, but South Korea 🇰🇷 is no perfect democracy. All but ONE of🇰🇷's heads of state have had a troubled life... Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 11
I think the craziness of North Korea is most apparent in its architecture. 7 examples:

1. The Science & Technology complex has the shape of an atom from above Image
Image
2. North Koreans like making their buildings' form represent their function. This is the entrance of the Zoo in the capital, Pyongyang: Image
3. The tallest building in the country is empty!
The Ryugyong Hotel was never finished. This Blade-Runner-style building has been empty for decades. The gov put LEDs on one facade, to use it... for propagandaImage
Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 24
The stupidest German policy of the last decade: closing its nuclear power plants

These are Germany's sources of electricity vs what they could have been if they had kept nuclear open:

• This has destroyed Germany's industry
• The new gov can reverse this
🧵
Germany's economy is in tatters. It's one of the slowest-growing rich economies. It has been in recession in 2023 and 2024! Image
One of the main reasons is its industrial production: It's shrunk compared to similar countries Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 19
This Sunday are Germany's elections
These are the best maps to understand the country:
Why is it so rich?
What makes it special?
What lies in its future?

1. We can still tell the East/West divide, 35 years after the reunification. These are Germany's phantom borders
2. Before WW2, East Germany had more:
• Working class ppl
• Vote left
• Women working
• Births out of wedlock
• Protestantism Image
Image
Image
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3. The main reason is because this region industrialized early. One of the reasons of that industrialization is because of the Bohemian Mountains and their coal and iron Image
Read 24 tweets
Jan 29
UNPRECEDENTED
The singularity is near. We're 1-6 years away from AGI according to:
1. Prediction markets
2. Insider insights
3. Benchmarks
4. Lack of barriers to growth
5. Current progress

This breakneck speed of AI progress is illustrated by OpenAI's o3 and DeepSeek🧵 Image
1. Prediction Markets:
Average bet on AGI: November 2030
Mode: June 2027Image
Two other bets in Metaculus match this:
• Two years to weak AGI, so by the end of 2026
• Three years later, Superintelligence, so by the end of 2029 Image
Image
Read 22 tweets
Jan 18
This remote corner of the US has something unique that might soon make it one of the most important cities in the world—the city of the future. It is officially Boca Chica today, but it might soon become Starbase 🧵 Image
This point at the south of Texas is the southernmost point in the continental US Image
That is extremely useful for rockets

The biggest share of weight in rockets is fuel. Most of it is burnt just to carry the rest to orbit! Rocket makers do anything they can to reduce fuel consumption Image
Read 14 tweets

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