But road transportation is waaay more expensive than water transportation—up to 10x more
These increases in transportation costs seem like not a big deal, but the impact is massive
Because here's the key: doubling transportation costs can reduce wealth by 90%:
• If you 2x transportation costs, you divide by 4x your potential markets
• But network effects grow with the square of nodes. 4^2=16
Doubling transportation costs can reduce trade potential by 16x!
A 16x reduction is a 94% reduction in wealth
Of course, the full 16x is not achieved in reality, and also now transportation costs are low enough that they aren't an obstacle to all types of trade
But the impact on trade is massive, and hidden: You don't know how much trade never happened because transportation costs were too high!
So you should be irate when you hear that the productivity of "Other transportation and support activities"—which includes marine cargo handling—has declined by 29%
(source: )
The most outrageous part is not the rent-seeking behavior of asking for a 77% increase in salaries—an ask they can only do because they have a monopoly
The worst part is that they're blocking automation. Every industry automates to make everything cheaper and get more business. But when you have a monopoly, you don't care. You abuse it.
The worst part is they should be looking forward to it, because, as they say, the work is back-breaking!
The worst part is that it would be better for longshoremen over the long term!
More productivity➡️Cheaper service➡️More business!
It should be a national mandate to allow port automation
2. Los Angeles:
• Trading hub between the world (Pacific) and the US (railways)
• Weather + biggest coastal valley on the Pacific➡️agriculture & cheap building
• Oil
• Landscapes + far from the East Coast centers of power➡️Attracted the film industry
People think we must shrink the world's population to be happy, but they're wrong
A world with shrinking population would be decaying, poor, brutal, violent, hopeless
A world with 100 billion people would be dynamic, rich, innovative, peaceful, hopeful
🧵
1. In the last 2 centuries, the world got better as the population exploded:
• Richer
• Live older
• Lower child mortality
• Fewer homicides
• Fewer war deaths
• Fewer hours worked
• Lower share of poor people
And much more: fewer infections, diseases, accidents. More racial equality, sexual equality. Instant access to all the knowledge in the world. We can go anywhere, whenever we want...
We can raise our population on Earth from 8 billion to 100B humans if we want to
Would we starve?
Be too crowded?
Would pollution explode?
Ecosystems collapse?
No! Don't believe alarmist degrowthers. This is why they're wrong: 🧵
Degrowthers put a label to "how many humans can the Earth sustain": carrying capacity
Their estimates vary wildly
Wait, what? What a surprise, the mode of their estimates is 8B—exactly the current number of ppl on Earth
WHAT A COINCIDENCE!
Or they lack imagination: OMG the Earth is already on the brink. Surely not one more soul fits here!
And then they try to find out what limits we might be hitting. Their most common fears are: 1. Room 2. Food 3. Water 4. Energy 5. Pollution 6. Resources
Let's look at each:
Can desalinated water deliver a future of infinite water?
Yes!
• It's cheap
• It will get even cheaper
• Limited pollution
• Some countries already live off of it
We can transform deserts into paradise. And some countries are already on that path:🧵
Crazy fact:
Over half of Israel's freshwater is desalinated from the Mediterranean!
And the vast majority of its tap water is desalinated too!
And it costs less than municipal water in a city like LA!
It's not the only country. Saudi Arabia is the biggest desalinator in the world. 50% of its drinking water is desalinated. It's 30% in Singapore, a majority of water in the UAE...
What if we applied this, but at scale across the world?
President-elect @realDonaldTrump could own the environmentalists by solving global warming on his first day in office, and do it for 0.1% of current climate investments
Here's how: sulfate injection 🧵
1. GLOBAL WARMING
2024 is the 1st year we pass 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels
This is caused by CO2
Some side-effects of this CO2 are good, but it's undeniable that the planet is warming fast, and it could create some nasty pbms
1. GLOBAL WARMING
2024 is the 1st year we pass 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels
This is caused by CO2
Some side-effects of this CO2 are good, but it's undeniable that the planet is warming fast, and it could create some nasty pbms
Beata Halassy got cancer in 2016, then again in 2018, and again in 2020. That looked awfully bad. She knew if she continued in the traditional route, her cancer might eventually prevail. So she decided to try what she knew about: viruses
Here's the theory: 1. Select a virus that is likely to attack your target cancer cells 2. Because cancer cells neutralize the immune system, they're more likely to be killed by viruses than healthy cells