Bold prediction: DeFi protocols will soon pay TradFi firms for *asset flow* on public chains, similar to how start-ups pay Google for search rankings today.
Said another way, DeFi protocols that sit underneath financial service providers (Fidelity, Blackrock) in the tech stack will share their economics with Wall Street as a way to onboard billions of tokenized assets into permissioned DeFi.
Why do I think it *could* play out this way?
Because TradFi owns the distribution.
But they aren’t going to build new protocols in DeFi. Instead, they’ll “tap into the new protocols” the crypto industry is building — by creating an interface to them for their existing customers.
This is where things get interesting.
Because the assets will be able to move freely onchain. For example, in the future, a user should be able to send tokenized Apple shares from Fidelity into DeFi to provide liquidity or access a loan.
So it makes sense that the DeFi protocols would pay commissions for the asset flow (and the fees that come with it).
It gets really interesting when you start to think about how the attribution (and payment) for all of this can happen in real-time, onchain.
Of course, in this world, we should expect TradFi firms to incentivize users to move assets back to their platform for custody and/or other services (offer insurance or some other perk/yield?)
The key thing is that the assets can move freely on public blockchains.
Therefore, we should expect to see some new business models and more competition.
The smartest DeFi + TradFi firms are planning for this now.
Data: Capital Deployed to Blackrock’s BUIDL Money Market Fund on Ethereum powered by @tokenterminal
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Everyone talks about ETH’s price… but the real story is where it lives.
Once you see how ETH is actually distributed — in ETFs, staking contracts, L2s, wrapped tokens, CEXs, and more — you understand:
1. Who really holds the keys 2. Capital flows and how much is actually liquid 3. Where the next supply shock could come from
Let’s map it out. 🧵👇
ETH in ETFs:
- Currently control 5% of the supply
- AUM up 80% over the last 3 months
- Blackrock & Fidelity have 73% of the AUM
ETH Staked:
- Currently control 29.7% of the supply
- Up 5% over the last 3 months
- @LidoFinance share down 3.5% over the last 3 months
- Binance now #2, up 23% over the same period
With ETH Treasury firms dumping ETH into staking, we expect this # to rise in the coming months.
But have we truly grasped the *economic* ripples that every proposal sets in motion?
Each pivot, upgrade, and idea impacts more than just the blockchain itself.
It shapes the experiences, challenges, and fortunes of:
1. Developers 2. Users 3. Validators 4. Service Providers 5. And Investors
That’s why I created a dashboard on @tokenterminal breaking it all down.
Past. Present. And Future.
A 🧵with some insights from the dashboard + a link at the end for those looking to go deeper 👇
Starting with EIP1559 in August of '21:
$12.4b has been “burned” or bought back since it’s implementation.
1/7
Shifting to ETH 2.0 and the move to Proof of Stake in Sept. '22:
Annual issuance dropped 88% overnight.
Impact on Validators:
1. Now compensated with tips from users (fees paid in excess of the base fee for block inclusion) + new issuance.
2. Compensation from new issuance was reduced by 88% overnight (from roughly 13.5k ETH/day to 1.7k ETH/day).
3. Overhead costs (energy) reduced by 99.9%.
4. Compensation from fees + new issuance is now determined by the validator's portion of ETH staked pro-rata to the amount of ETH staked on the network.
[see dashboard for impact on ETH holders]
2/7
Moving on to The Shapella Upgrade (staking withdrawals) in April of '23:
Validators increased 58% in the first 6 months post-Shapella.
Impact:
1. Validators: decrease in yield 2. Tokenholders: drop in yield can impact demand for ETH 3. Network security: more validators = more secure network. 4. Applications: @LidoFinance was the largest beneficiary.
So many bad takes on the timeline regarding Ethereum vs Solana right now.
It's about time we cut through the noise with a data-driven approach.
That's why I created an absolute banger of a dashboard comparing the economics of the two networks across:
1. Go-To-Market Strategy 2. Value Accrual 3. Total Economic Value 4. Cost to Produce $1 Fee Revenue 5. Network Fundamentals 6. Performance & Valuation
It's both quantitative and qualitative.
A quick 🧵with some takeaways + a link to the dashboard via @tokenterminal at the end 👇
Takeaway #1: It's now about 50% cheaper to transact on Arbitrum than Solana. In fact, it's cheaper to transact on half of the top L2s.
1/7
Shifting to Total Network Fees:
Takeaways:
1. Ethereum + the top L2s have done nearly $20b in all-time fees
2. 97.5% has come from the L1 ($479m from the top L2s)
3. Solana has produced $495m in all-time fees, with 87% of that coming this year.
4. The trend is the friend of Solana, which has produced 41% of Ethereum's top-line network fees over the last 90 days (not including MEV)
5. Why am I including L2s? Because they create demand for ETH + settle transactions down to the L1. We'll stop including them if those two economic ties are severed.
2/7
Next is Protocol Revenue (burned tokens, which accrue value to non-stakers):
Takeaways:
1. 64% of Ethereum's all-time transaction fees ($12.4b) have been burned, accruing value to ETH tokenholders.
2. 50% of Solana's all-time transaction fees ($247m) have been burned (2% of Ethereum).
3. L2s have no value accrual mechanism for tokenholders today.
. @Uniswap did 81% of @coinbase trading volume in Q2.
It did 65% of @RobinhoodApp's volume.
Meanwhile, Uniswap has just 3% of Coinbase's workforce and 4% of Robinhoods.
A 🧵on @Uniswap's market share within crypto across 6 different KPIs using @tokenterminal new dashboard feature.
___
Starting with Fees - Uniswap currently controls a 55% market share. Notably, the protocol generated $45m for Uniswap Labs via it's interface fee over the last 6 months.
That's 9% of what was paid to Uniswap LPs ($503m) over the same period.
*please note all data excludes Solana DEXs (coming soon)
1/7
In terms of active users, @Uniswap currently has a 60% market share — twice as high as one year ago.
Uniswap had over 9 million active users in August. For reference, Coinbase has 8 million monthly active users. Robinhood has 13.7m.
Data: @tokenterminal
2/7
In terms of trading volume, Uniswap currently has a 42% market share across crypto DEXs (excludes Solana)
In August the DEX did $52b (down from $90b in March).
Again, Uniswap did 81% of Coinbase's volume in Q2 and 65% of Robinhood's volume.