Thread by @mmjukic

A fertility rate below 1.6 means 50% less new people after three generations, say 100 years. Below 1.2 means an 80% drop.

The U.S. is at 1.64. China, Japan, Poland, Spain all below 1.2. South Korea is at 0.7—96% drop.

Mass extinction numbers.

https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1832726932552572974

There is no indication that birth rates are going to stabilize, let alone recover, anywhere. Only Israel and Georgia (?) look like even half-way exceptions.

Unless they drastically and rapidly change, the 21st century will be the century of unbelievable aging and depopulation.

Based on these latest fertility numbers, we can expect the drop in new people in 100 years to be the following: USA (-47%), France (-46%), Russia (-65%), Germany (-68%), Italy (-78%), Japan (-81%), China (-88%), Thailand (-89%).

Turkey, UK, Mexico, etc. all similar.

People haven't really integrated what this means for our civilization, industrial society, and the progress of history because it's too big to wrap your head around.

I think what it means is that our civilization is about to collapse. Meaning sometime before 2200.

It is in every practical sense numerically *impossible* for immigration to fix this. You can't "make up the difference" with immigration when the difference is 50%+ of an entire generation. Especially not if you're China or the EU and your shortfall is in 100s of millions.

People still haven't updated on how rapidly fertility rates in the developing world are falling either. In 2022 already, Brazil was at 1.6, Mexico 1.8, India 2.0, Turkey 1.9, etc.

Numbers above say *Chile* is now at *0.88.* Thailand is at 0.95! What is happening!

The Danish population of Denmark hasn't changed a whit since 1980—44 years ago, or, you know, half a century.

The entire population growth in Denmark since 1980 has been immigrants. I bet this holds for many other countries too. Which means...

https://x.com/Scientific_Bird/status/1840533946863386788

...the entire functioning of the quasi-redistributive quasi-capitalist system we have in Europe and North America has been subsidized by immigration for half a century already, while the previous population has stagnated and aged.

The system has been non-functional for decades.

There is no way to sustain the stack of institutions behind our version of modern industrial society when the next generations are collapsing by 50%+. It is as numerically impossible as throwing more immigrants at the problem. The math doesn't add up.

There is a strong psychological need to believe in utopian or apocalyptic visions of the near future, like AI doom/acc or imminent WW3 or ecological catastrophe, because the alternative is staring our incomprehensibly pathetic civilizational population collapse in the face.

I don't expect the dead players and bureaucrats to leap at opportunities for reform, but I think it's a catastrophic distraction for live players and independent thinkers, especially in tech, to forget that the straightforward solution is societal reform.

https://x.com/mmjukic/status/1841558473001042322

The solution isn't to hope we can build an AI who will solve all our problems for us or subsidize our incoherent, sociobiologically insolvent system with our wacky technology, the solution is coming up with a new, functional plan for organizing industrial societies.

People used to think that surely the low fertility rates of Asia would stabilize at, like, 1.1 at absolute minimum.

Nope. South Korea (population of 50 million) is now at 0.68. Others following. As @SamoBurja says, no reason not to expect 0.0 TFR societies in the near future.

If we fumble a much-needed reform of industrial society by 2100 or so, I think we miss our opportunity to establish permanent settlements in the Solar System and thus our chance at the stars down the line. It closes the book on that for us. Maybe in another 1000 years.

Everyone proposing to save the day with robots, AI, artificial wombs, longevity, or whatever other speculative wacky tech solution is proposing to do a great favor to the bad and broken system that brought us here.

The system needs reform, not more subsidy. Ideas, not tech.

The global economy and industrial/post-industrial standard of living, and all its attendant social norms, relies on a tremendous scale of population to be viable.

I don't think it's viable anymore when South Korea has 5 million people instead of 50 million.

I'm working on what I think will be a solution to industrial civilization's fertility problem. It's not a quick or easy problem. I published the first piece here in @palladiummag:

https://x.com/mmjukic/status/1692171783557005502

Also worth reading (and subscribing to!) @bismarckanlys Brief, which investigated India's rapidly falling fertility rates and near-future population stagnation here: brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/fewer-than-o…

There is a personal upside to civilization-scale population collapse. If you are one of the few people to prioritize high fertility, your children and grandchildren will inherit a world:

https://x.com/mmjukic/status/1699085342635176114

More thoughts on solving industrial society:

https://x.com/mmjukic/status/1796472233227067655

Unfounded hope that fertility is a self-correcting problem, yet as @Empty_America is fond of pointing out, falling populations congregate in low-fertility cities even harder. They don't spread out to areas with cheap homes and fruitfully multiply!

https://x.com/mmjukic/status/1841569914928451737

If cheap homes attracted young people who automatically used them to be fecund according to some Malthusian logic, it would have happened already in places like rural America or Italy. The opposite is happening.

By @Empty_America in @palladiummag: palladiummag.com/2022/08/16/in-…

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One underexplored aspect of the population collapse crisis is how many developing countries simply have fraudulent population numbers for various reasons.

Nigeria's population may be overstated by as much as double.

Read the @bismarckanlys Brief here: brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/nigeria-is-a…

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