"SAT scores just reflect zip codes" is probably dead.
A new study used a sample of 760,000 military children whose families were randomly assigned to different counties/zips and found living in a +1 SD county or zip code for twenty years upped scores by just 0.05 or 0.19 d:
That 1 SD gap between Blacks and Whites? It's not explained by Blacks living in about 0.6 SD worse neighborhoods. Maybe about 10% is.
That's probably to much though, because the instrumental variable analysis suggested the sign of the effect on SAT scores was negative!
The authors had this to say on the negative estimated effect on SAT totals:
Looking closely, all of the causal estimates of place effects on SAT scores were at best marginally significant, unlike the effects on attained income, college attendance, and earnings.
The paper is worth a read. It is much less reassuring about impacts on SAT scores than it is about impacts on other aspects of SES. Those effects are small but meaningful, and thankfully not too heterogeneous by group, but that is realistic!
The College Board just released this year's SAT scores!
I thought I'd go ahead and put everything in familiar terms and make some plots.
This thread will have a lot of pictures. First up: How did everyone do?
All of the typical race differences are there. Blacks did roughly 15 IQ points worse, Hispanics did about 10 points worse, Asians did similarly better, etc.
If we scale all that by the sizes of the populations who took the tests, we get this:
Another way to look at this data is to stack everyone into a single population, like so:
Innovation is the backbone of modern economic growth, and without the Protestants, we probably wouldn't have it🧵
Consider the period of the Counter-Reformation. During this time, the Catholic Church set science back in the territories it governed:
Before the Counter-Reformation, Catholic and Protestant Europe were on similar scientific trajectories:
They produced comparable numbers of scientists, comparably important intellectuals, and comparable numbers of inventions.
But, seemingly overnight, Catholics started rampaging against intellectualism, and they had a focused impact on scientists, with no appreciable impacts on artists or other types of intellectuals.
Protestantism promoted the separation of Church and Science, so this makes sense.
If you give them a battery of tests built for LLMs or covering topics like U.S. History, you can end up with a model that is unidimensional, much like how human intelligence is:
I previously attempted to fit such a model and was unsuccessful because many LLMs are practically the same person, leading to a fitting failure.
These authors obviated that issue by pruning highly similar LLMs with DBSCAN and other means.