Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 3 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
"SAT scores just reflect zip codes" is probably dead.

A new study used a sample of 760,000 military children whose families were randomly assigned to different counties/zips and found living in a +1 SD county or zip code for twenty years upped scores by just 0.05 or 0.19 d:Image
That 1 SD gap between Blacks and Whites? It's not explained by Blacks living in about 0.6 SD worse neighborhoods. Maybe about 10% is.

That's probably to much though, because the instrumental variable analysis suggested the sign of the effect on SAT scores was negative! Image
The authors had this to say on the negative estimated effect on SAT totals:

Looking closely, all of the causal estimates of place effects on SAT scores were at best marginally significant, unlike the effects on attained income, college attendance, and earnings. Image
The paper is worth a read. It is much less reassuring about impacts on SAT scores than it is about impacts on other aspects of SES. Those effects are small but meaningful, and thankfully not too heterogeneous by group, but that is realistic!

Source: nber.org/papers/w32674

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Oct 4
Lots of people attacking this decision, but do you think YOU could pass the POST?

Here's a thread of test questions.

Question 1: Image
If you're already struggling, don't worry, just keep plugging in your answers.

For questions 2 and 3 you'll have to do some addition and subtraction: Image
The test might seem too tough for you now, but just wait until you see question number 4: Image
Read 19 tweets
Sep 25
The College Board just released this year's SAT scores!

I thought I'd go ahead and put everything in familiar terms and make some plots.

This thread will have a lot of pictures. First up: How did everyone do? Image
All of the typical race differences are there. Blacks did roughly 15 IQ points worse, Hispanics did about 10 points worse, Asians did similarly better, etc.

If we scale all that by the sizes of the populations who took the tests, we get this: Image
Another way to look at this data is to stack everyone into a single population, like so: Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 24
A few days ago, I wrote about evidence that the Counter-Reformation impeded scientific progress in the Catholic world relative to the Protestant one.

The evidence doesn't stop there. Lots of places diverge predictably🧵

First, Catholic and Protestant German cities:
Image
When does Spain fall behind the Netherlands and Britain?

After they got worked up about Protestant cells in the country, leading to a crackdown. Image
When did the Catholic Dutch fall behind the Protestant Dutch?

After the Spanish reasserted themselves in the southern parts of the Low Countries. Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 23
The FBI has finally released crime statistics for 2023!

Let's have a short thread.

First thing up is recent violent crime trends: Image
Now let's focus in on homicides.

The homicide statistics split by race show the same distribution they have for years. Image
As with every crime, it's still men doing the killing, but it's also largely men doing the dying. Image
Read 7 tweets
Sep 20
Innovation is the backbone of modern economic growth, and without the Protestants, we probably wouldn't have it🧵

Consider the period of the Counter-Reformation. During this time, the Catholic Church set science back in the territories it governed: Image
Before the Counter-Reformation, Catholic and Protestant Europe were on similar scientific trajectories:

They produced comparable numbers of scientists, comparably important intellectuals, and comparable numbers of inventions. Image
But, seemingly overnight, Catholics started rampaging against intellectualism, and they had a focused impact on scientists, with no appreciable impacts on artists or other types of intellectuals.

Protestantism promoted the separation of Church and Science, so this makes sense. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 19
Are LLMs smart like humans are smart? Short🧵

If you give them a battery of tests built for LLMs or covering topics like U.S. History, you can end up with a model that is unidimensional, much like how human intelligence is: Image
I previously attempted to fit such a model and was unsuccessful because many LLMs are practically the same person, leading to a fitting failure.

These authors obviated that issue by pruning highly similar LLMs with DBSCAN and other means.

The result was a model that fits, when you have a bifactor solution, and not when you have a single-factor one or two non-general factors.

The result is, frankly, a bit cobbled together and hacky, but you have to live with that if you want a model that's even facially fine.
Read 8 tweets

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