Leon Simons (is fine) Profile picture
Oct 3 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Many are under the impression that we have not yet reached the double CO₂-equivalent Greenhouse Gas level.

We definitely have, using the @IPCC_CH's based estimates.

Don't ask me why nobody mentions this..

Total Greenhouse gas forcing:
4 W/m² = ~560 ppm CO2-eq = 2 x CO2Image
@IPCC_CH Every climate scientist worth their salt knows and understands this.

Forcings are what cause the climate to change.

It's the first thing you (should) learn about when you study climate change. Image
"We conclude that the GHG increase since 1750 already produces a climate forcing equivalent to that of 2 × CO2"

Global warming in the pipeline
@DrJamesEHansen et al. (2023)
academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3…Image
Many would rather be 'precisely wrong than roughly right'.

I think that's completely wrong!

We shouldn't ignore tropospheric ozone, which produces a FORCING of about 0.51 W/m².

Equal to about 16 years, or 640 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions.
Image

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More from @LeonSimons8

Sep 18
This changes everything📈.
The Northern Hemisphere's Energy Imbalance.

The most important @NASA data you've never heard about.

The northern half of our planet started to absorb much more heat from the sun than it radiates to space.

These are absolute values (not anomalies):Image
For the first time @NASA CERES satellite data shows the Northern Hemisphere absorbing more sunlight (48-month average of 242.2 W/m²) than the Southern Hemisphere.

The amount of absorbed sunlight increased by 0.6 W/m² more over the Northern than over the Southern Hemisphere: Image
Which is coincidentally also the current Northern Hemisphere Energy Imbalance: Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 16
As parts of Europe are flooding, remember how aerosols decreased rainfall.

We need extensive assessments of what the rapid desulphurisation means for extreme rainfall over Europe.
𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀, 𝗔𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗩𝘂𝗹𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆
The @IPCC_CH WG2 report barely mentioned aerosols, while:

"Anthropogenic aerosols greatly modify sub-regional precipitation changes, and their spatio-temporal changes are uncertain"
@IPCC_CH In plain language, that means:

Reducing air pollution will greatly change rainfall patterns, but we're not sure where and when.

Why a report named 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘀, 𝗔𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗩𝘂𝗹𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 doesn't cover this in more detail is beyond me.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 31
The past two months were similar to 2023.

We might not see pre-2023 monthly global average temperatures for a total of >30 months!

If the rate of warming has increased even more than we think, we might never experience pre-2023 temperatures again..


Image
The science shows that during most of the past 120,000 years, the amount of heat on Earth was reduced by many yottajoules.

A yottajoule equals 1,000 ZJ.

Which is equal to 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10²⁴) joules.

Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 27
🤖 AI can lie to you.

Don't trust it!

I asked a simple question: How much heat (in ZJ) does it take to increase global sea levels by one meter, only melting land ice.

It says it considers the density differences between 🧊ice & 🌊water (917 vs 1000 kg/m³), but it doesn’t.
1/ Image
2/
I see more and more people trust AI to do their calculations for them.

As I showed here, it's more often wrong than right:

patreon.com/posts/11016073…
3/
One of many things that's great about the metric system (SI units in general 👇) is that it's so easy to make calculations on water:

A cubic decimeter (10 dm³, 1000 cm³) holds one liter of water, which weighs one kg.

And a cubic meter (m³) holds 1000 liters, weighing a ton. Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 6
Here's what happened.

A single cherry-picked dataset kept being used to imply others, including @NASA and @NOAA, were lying ("the truth is bad enough") about accelerated warming.

Now that single dataset has been updated and does show an acceleration.
This confirms what @NASA and @NOAA researchers (Loeb et al. 2021) found about the doubling in the rate of global warming (Earth's Energy Imbalance, which is mainly ocean warming, as those take up 90% of the additional heat) over the past ~20 years.


Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 3
May 2024 was the first month since February 2016 for which @NASA CERES satellite data shows a relatively strong negative monthly Earth Energy Imbalance.

For global warming to stabilize, the long term average needs to be zero.

Values climatology corrected. Image
@NASA These are the monthly values.

A lot to see here.

I'll write a detailed explainer on Patreon (link in bio) once the data for June are available. Image
These are the monthly Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies.

May 2024 was 2.3 W/m² higher than May 2023 was.

That means a lot more heat was leaving the planet, which caused the negative monthly EEI and significantly lowered the 12-month mean, to 1 W/m². Image
Read 7 tweets

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