tern Profile picture
Oct 4, 2024 30 tweets 3 min read Read on X
I met up with an old friend for a walk earlier this week, taking advantage of a glorious sunny autumn day.

He's not covid cautious or conscious and he didn't know I am, so when I put on a mask to go inside a public building he was taken aback.
"Do you always do that?"

Yes I do.
We continued on our walk, chatting about all sorts of other stuff, and he brought the subject back round to the mask.

He respects me, and I respect him, so respectfully he asked if I thought masks worked.
I said that it depends what you mean by 'work'.
They reduce the amount of airborne particulates you inhale.
Covid is spread mostly by people exhaling and inhaling airborne particulates.
So if you want to reduce your risk of catching Covid by reducing the amount of Covid you inhale, then yes they work.
They're not perfect, but what is?

I've been watching all my colleagues get repeatedly sick, while I've stayed well for five years.
And then he asked what made me think that covid was worth avoiding.
I thought about my reply for a moment, and then said "science"
Not anxiety, or fear, or superstition.
Science.
The science outlining what Covid infections are doing is solid and vast.
And the links between what science predicts (eg that covid infections will cause disability) and the effects we see in the everyday (rising disability) are unequivocal.
I've given up trying to always be a cheerleader in these kind of situations.
It's a path that most people are unwilling to consider, so people can take or leave my opinion.
But he asked, so I told him.
I told him that I think everyone ages but people who catch Covid repeatedly age quicker in terms of key indicators like lung and brain and heart health.
I told him that waves of Covid infection cause ambulance delays and hospital overcrowding.
I told him that sickness rates in some sectors have doubled.
I could have kept going, but I didn't have the energy or the heart.
He acknowledged that it was potentially true.
But he, like so many others, thinks that he couldn't handle the lifestyle change.
And since we were being honest, I said that isn't a luxury that people with Long Covid have.
They don't get to choose their lifestyle change.
They have had it forced on them by a society that has chosen to get sick and make them sick.
At which point, to my astonishment, he told me that his wife has long covid.
I boggled for a while.
I'm still boggling now.
My mind is boggled.
I told him that the biggest risk factor for worsened long covid seems to be repeat infections.
And we talked about some other stuff like kids and jobs and friends we know whose health has mysteriously gone downhill in the last two years.
But all of the rest of the stuff hung in the air.
I don't know what he's going to do with it.

When a culture is so set against recognising a danger, it's very hard for an individual person to turn and go against that flow.
Good luck to all of the people who hear and make that turn.
Oh, just going to clarify this.
He actually said "My wife thinks she has Long Covid".

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More from @1goodtern

Feb 28
Right you lovely people.
It's time to talk about the Third Bump again.

Strap in, this isn't good news.
Just to give you a quick recap:
Before the pandemic started, annual rates of sickness, new onset disability, and death were pretty constant here.
Read 67 tweets
Feb 27
Right.
This is a long-brewed thread, and I've tried to start writing it before and then ground to a halt and then tried again and just given up because it gets messy and weird...

But I'd like to write a little about Rupert Murdoch, and what the heck is wrong with him.
Let's cut straight to the chase.
For decades and decades and decades, over 70 years, Murdoch has built his media empire.... by debasing people.
Read 65 tweets
Feb 27
Right.
I've been pondering on this for a few months, and I think the Norovirus/Rotavirus contrast may be a clue to what repeat *covid infections* are doing to people. Image
Image
And the fact that the UKHSA have come out and said that Noro may get **even worse** this year is a big red flag.

(Although there's a big possibility that they're just saying that so that when cases go down they can say they saved us from a second wave.)
These two graphs are quite complicated.
Here's weekly lab confirmed Rotavirus cases in mauve since July 24. (Ed: mauve?)
They match pretty consistently with the 5 year average for each of those weeks (blue line), which itself hasn't changed much in five years. Image
Read 49 tweets
Feb 27
Thank you, New York Times.

But I think 'alarmists' might be the wrong word then? "The covid alarmists were closer to the truth than anyone else"
I had forgotten this little story about Elon Musk:
"I was reminded of this all recently when reading about a similar bet that the writer and podcaster Sam Harris said he made with his former friend Elon Musk at the beginning of the pandemic...
Read 20 tweets
Feb 26
Very interesting new paper.
I hope this thread does it justice. 😬

"An integrated airborne transmission risk assessment model for respiratory viruses: short- and long-range contributions" Image
A new study from Royal Society Interface...

It's an update on the advanced airborne transmission model that shifts a little how we assess infection risks in indoor spaces.
TLDR: Short range spread is ten times as intense as long range spread.
Read 42 tweets
Feb 26
If you're old and slow like me, then that Trump Gaza video goes too quick to absorb its full insanity.

So I took a few screenshots for you to digest at leisure.

This is something genuinely posted by *the President of The United States Of America*.Image
Let's work from the back end forward.
Trump just wants to make money and be successful and own shiny things made of gold.
This is his goal Image
Read 36 tweets

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