Crémieux Profile picture
Oct 4, 2024 19 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Lots of people attacking this decision, but do you think YOU could pass the POST?

Here's a thread of test questions.

Question 1: Image
If you're already struggling, don't worry, just keep plugging in your answers.

For questions 2 and 3 you'll have to do some addition and subtraction: Image
The test might seem too tough for you now, but just wait until you see question number 4: Image
Question 5 separates the men from the boys, or apparently, the men women from the women: Image
Now we're going to transition from the mathematics section to reading comprehension.

Before getting to the questions, read this paragraph. You'll need it for questions 6 through 10: Image
Now here are the stumpers in question: Image
Question 11 gets its own passage: Image
Giving up yet? Well hang in there.

Questions 12 and 13 rely on this material: Image
Now you have to answer the hard questions like 'Can you read a paragraph that contains the answer?' Image
The following questions ask you to identify spelling and grammatical errors and to insert the correct word where it fits: Image
Question 18 also asks you to identify a spelling error. This can be a hard one! Image
Now here's how you do the final section.

You have to fill out forms correctly, according to a style guide everyone is provided. Image
The questions are based on this.

You have to fill in which items were stolen, where the victim lived, the suspect's name and address, the suspect's clothing items, and the names of the officers assigned to the complaint. Image
Now, without sarcasm, if you fail this sort of test, something is wrong with you. This test is incredibly easy and you would have to be illiterate and innumerate to fail.

And yet, 9% of Whites and 29% of Blacks fail. Incidentally, with equal variances, that's a 0.79 d difference
That difference is what's expected based on the Black-White difference in the general population with a bit of selection into test-taking added. It matches up with what we know to be unbiased differences in other tests of police officers (e.g., on the WAIS).
Now what do the women fail? Well, 49% of them can't do 18 push-ups in a minute, 27 sit-ups in a minute, run 1.5 miles in 15m20s, and reach 1.5 inches past their toes while seated.

They're pathetically physically incapable, so that's the department's fault.
The Maryland Department of State Police would need to show that the thresholds used in the test have equal predictive power by sex, that they're relevant to the job, etc.

Everyone knows a physical test is fine, but justifying it is obviously hard.
You could argue that maybe the female officers won't be stepping into the line of duty, or that the test just doesn't work at all, but argue that.

Otherwise, we get yet another senseless attack on having even bottom of the barrel standards.

It's pathetic.
Now if you really couldn't figure out the POST question answers, here's a link to the answer sheet: mdsp.maryland.gov/Careers/Troope…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Nov 8
I'm going to humbly request that everyone stop dunking on John when he isn't even wrong.

Firstly, the reason for the hollowed out middle between -1.96 and 1.96 (p = 0.05) is not due to calculating CIs from abstracts instead of full-texts.

The original source showed that!Image
The original source for the Medline p-values explicitly compared the distributions in the abstracts and full-texts.

They found that there was a kink such that positive results had excess lower-bounds above 1 and negative results had excess upper-bounds below 1.Image
They then explicitly compared the distributional kinkiness from Medline to the distributions from an earlier paper that was similar to a specification curve analysis.

That meant comparing Medline to a result that was definitely not subject to p-hacking or publication bias. Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 7
I got blocked for this meager bit of pushback on an obviously wrong idea lol.

Seriously:

Anyone claiming that von Neumann was tutored into being a genius is high on crack. He could recite the lines from any page of any book he ever read. That's not education!
'So, what's your theory on how von Neumann could tell you the exact weights and dimensions of objects without measuring tape or a scale?'

'Ah, it was the education that was provided to him, much like the education provided to his brothers and cousins.' Image
'How could his teachers have set him up to connect totally disparate fields in unique ways, especially given that every teacher who ever talked about him noted that he was much smarter than them and they found it hard to teach him?'

'Education, OK???' Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 6
A new study just came out on this topic.

Using data from almost 14 million young people in England, they found that COVID—but not COVID vaccination—was broadly associated with heart problems.

The myocarditis bump (which is milder than real myocarditis) was also small.Image
This study also provides more to differentiate viral myocarditis from vaccine """myocarditis""", which again, is mild, resolves quickly, etc., unlike real myocarditis.

To see what it is, first look at this plot, showing COVID infection risks by time since diagnosis: Image
Now look at risks since injection.

See the difference?

The risks related to infection hold up for a year or more. The risks related to injection, by contrast, are short-term.Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 6
This analysis falls flat when you look into these people or think about how so many other "vons" were not as brilliant.

Von Neumann's brilliance preceded formal education and any tutoring. His advanced math tutor noted that he was smarter than him from their first meeting!Image
Von Neumann was noted to be eidetic by 3.

By 6 he could divide two 8-digit numbers immediately in his head.

He picked up multiple languages by 7, long before his similarly-instructed cousins and brothers.

By 8, he could do calculus.

His precocity *inspired* hiring a tutor. Image
Absolutely tons of upper-bourgeois families in Budapest supplemented schooling with tutors, governesses, etc.

But von Neumann—who had far from the best education among them—outmatched them with ease.

Moreover, he had plenty of superhuman abilities! Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 4
What do studies say about "freezing the rent"?

Let's have a thread🧵

First thing's first: Most studies agree that rent controlled units have lower rents, but also the supply of rentable units goes down and un-controlled units see their rents increase.

Uh-oh! Image
Rent control also means that fewer homes get built, and it means that housing quality drops.

After all, if you can't raise the rent, what incentive do you have to make everything sparkly and neat? Image
Rent control lowers residential mobility, meaning people stay put longer

That's not good because it causes misallocation

Consider an elderly family whose kids left the nest. They should move to a smaller place, but rent control keeps them in place, so new families can't move in Image
Read 8 tweets
Nov 3
I'm not taking a stance on whether inflammation drives cancer, but I will say it's very true that GLP-1 drugs reduce inflammation—a lot!

Tirzepatide at any dose greatly reduced levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and interleukin-6, two important inflammation markers: Image
I have actually had people thank me for getting them on this stuff precisely because they had inflammation issues that these drugs *immediately* solved for them.

Here's an example I've posted before: this man's back pain was cured!

Read 4 tweets

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